Understanding What’s Priced Into The Market (guest: Warren Pies)
Sep 23, 2023
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Warren Pies, cofounder of 3 Fourteen Research, discusses his unconventional start in life, his market views, and the importance of a hyper-reactive fed. They delve into mispricing in the bond and stock markets, the housing market as a recession indicator, and emerging trends. They also touch on Russian production, the nature vs. nurture debate, and potential investment choices. Additionally, they analyze technical indicators, speculate on a stock market crash, and explore TIPS as an inflation hedge and retirement strategy. Anecdotes with dogs add a lively touch to the conversation.
Shale has fundamentally changed the macro landscape, influencing bond and stock markets.
Analyzing charts can provide insights into upcoming trends and market movements, helping investors make informed decisions.
Regular exercise has numerous health benefits and should be prioritized for overall well-being.
Prolonged sun exposure without sunscreen can have serious consequences, emphasizing the importance of sun protection.
Deep dives
Shale's Impact on the Macro Landscape
The podcast episode discusses how shale has fundamentally changed the macro landscape. It explores the importance of shale in driving the bond and stock markets and examines the potential mispricing by these markets. The guest speaker from 314 Research provides insight into the significance of shale and its impact on the overall economy.
The Importance of Understanding Charts
The podcast highlights the significance of analyzing charts to gain insights into upcoming trends and market movements. It emphasizes the value of understanding the key indicators and patterns found in charts, particularly in relation to the next couple of weeks. By closely examining the charts, investors can make informed decisions based on the identified trends and anticipated market behavior.
The Link Between Working Out and Good Health
The podcast episode emphasizes the positive impact of regular exercise on one's overall health. It delves into the various health benefits of working out and highlights the importance of incorporating physical activity into one's lifestyle. By exploring the connection between exercise and good health, the episode aims to encourage individuals to prioritize and engage in regular workouts.
The Dangers of Sun Exposure Without Sunscreen
The podcast discusses the risks associated with prolonged sun exposure without the use of sunscreen. It emphasizes the importance of protecting the skin from harmful UV rays and highlights the potential dangers and consequences of not using sunscreen. By raising awareness about the hazards of inadequate sun protection, the episode encourages listeners to prioritize sunscreen application and sun safety measures.
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Bearish outlook for broader stock market
The speaker discusses several bearish indicators for the stock market. The equal weight S&P 500 is underperforming the main S&P, indicating a potential breakdown and retesting of year lows. Small caps also show a decisive breakdown, with the March and May lows at risk of being retested. The Russell micro index is highlighted as a particularly bearish chart. Additionally, the New York Stock Exchange breadth metric shows only 27% of stocks above their 50-day moving averages, suggesting intense selling pressure. Despite these bearish factors, the VIX remains low, indicating a lack of worry in the market.
Bullish outlook for crude oil and uranium
The speaker presents a bullish outlook for crude oil, noting its strong uptrend and potential for further gains. Although a pullback to around $85 is possible, the overall chart suggests a bullish trend with the potential to reach $100. The speaker also mentions the bullish performance of uranium, specifically the U3O8 chart, which has broken above 2022 highs. While a pullback is anticipated, the chart indicates a positive trend. The speaker encourages buying dips in both crude oil and uranium.
This week Kev has an in-depth discussion with 3 Fourteen Research Cofounder, Warren Pies. They talk about Warren’s unconventional start in life, his views on the market and why he believes, a soft landing needs a hyper-reactive fed.
