HousingWire Daily With all eyes on Jobs Friday, it’s labor over inflation for mortgage rates
19 snips
Sep 5, 2025 
Logan Mohtashami, Lead Analyst at HousingWire, dives into the intricate dance between labor data and mortgage rates this week. He reveals how recent job reports are shaping Federal Reserve policies and discusses the profound effects on housing market affordability. The conversation touches on the aging population's challenges and the misconceptions about immigration's role in housing costs. Logan also addresses how inflation impacts average families, providing insight into the broader economic landscape.
AI Snips
Chapters
Books
Transcript
Episode notes
Labor Over Inflation Drives Rates
- Logan Mohtashami argues mortgage rates are falling because the labor market is softening, not just inflation easing.
- The bond market is pricing labor weakness ahead of the Federal Reserve, keeping the 10-year yield near key support levels.
Key Technical Lines For The 10-Year
- Logan identifies technical support levels for the 10-year yield (the 'Gandalf' and 'Hodor' lines) that have repeatedly held.
- Breaking below the 4.18% level would require a clear recession-like labor collapse to sustain lower yields.
Sector Job Losses Move Bonds
- The labor market's weakness is concentrated in manufacturing and residential construction, which matters more for rates.
- Bond buyers react to growth scares, so persistent job losses can push long-term yields lower before the Fed cuts.
