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Making Sense

President Trump’s first 100 days: What’s happened and what’s next?

Apr 18, 2025
16:48

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • The current tariff environment is projected to hinder U.S. GDP growth significantly, possibly leading to a mild recession by 2025.
  • Despite U.S. demand weaknesses, global oil demand remains strong, with ongoing complexities in the market influencing future price expectations.

Deep dives

Impact of Tariff Policies on Economic Growth

The current tariff environment has led to a downrevision of the U.S. real GDP growth forecast, with expectations of an impending mild recession by 2025. The tariffs are seen as a substantial tax on the economy, potentially reducing GDP by one to two percentage points. Significant uncertainty stemming from erratic tariff policies has also negatively affected business sentiment, raising questions about the administration's support for near-term economic performance. As these tariffs create disruptions, especially in trade with China, their impact on economic confidence and activity is expected to materialize as the year progresses.

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