This Week in Asia: Is the AI Bubble About to Pop? with Daniel Cerventus and Michael Smith Jr

By popular demand, Michael Smith Jr., co-host of The Generalist podcast, and Daniel Cerventus Lim, semi-retired entrepreneur and community builder in Malaysia, return for another candid deep-dive into Southeast Asia and India tech landscape. Fresh off India's record-breaking IPO wave that's drawing regional companies like Pine Labs to redomicile, they dissect what this exit boom means for a Southeast Asian ecosystem still struggling with venture returns. Michael delivers his characteristically unflinching take on why "the year of [insert country]" never materializes beyond Singapore and Indonesia, while making the provocative case that most VCs fundamentally misunderstand B2B distribution strategy—specifically how hyperscaler marketplaces like AWS and Microsoft provide the GTM playbook that separates successful exits from perennial fundraising. Daniel shares emerging insights from the SME acquisition space, revealing the stark reality that traditional businesses are "seeing black" while venture-backed startups continue "seeing red." Together, they debate whether we're witnessing an AI infrastructure bubble that will pop or simply taper, examine why Southeast Asia leads globally in AI adoption despite the disconnect with venture outcomes, and question the fragility of cloud infrastructure after recent AWS and CloudFlare outages. The conversation culminates in a sobering assessment: the region has achieved a remarkable $300 billion digital economy milestone, but the path forward may require accepting longer timelines, smaller profitable exits over unicorn dreams, and modernizing traditional businesses rather than building the next ByteDance.

"If you don't think we're gonna get there, then you should all get outta tech because we're gonna get there. And if you're gonna get there, we barely have the horsepower to do the Google Docs that we have today, let alone the world I just described." - Michael Smith Jr

On AI Assistance - “If you can get 90% of the stuff done, I just need to say yes or no. And that is like my [ideal state]." - Daniel Cerventus

Episode Highlights: [00:00] Quotes of the Day by Michael, Daniel & Bernard[02:12] Record India IPOs signal redomiciling trend from Singapore[03:53] Pine Labs exit provides significant Southeast Asia returns[04:41] Indonesia's venture funding freeze despite strong exit activity[11:29] Year of whatever narrative never materializes for any country in ASEAN[15:05] AI infrastructure bubble debate: does it pop or fizzle?[18:42] OpenAI's unprecedented growth speed creates new tech pantheon[21:00] Recent AWS and CloudFlare outages highlight infrastructure fragility[24:00] AI agents remain in early stages of development[28:00] Real-world robotics models still lack adequate data foundations[34:00] AppPoint's dual NASDAQ-SGX listing demonstrates successful B2B strategy[38:00] B2B marketplace strategy provides essential distribution for startups[44:00] Reflections on eConomySEA 10th Year Report 2025[53:00] SME market offers modernization opportunities with lower risk[54:00] Southeast Asia modernization surprises many American visitors[56:00] SME acquisition market shows profitability versus startup losses[57:00] Closing

Profile: Michael Smith Jr., Tech Evangelist from Oracle & Co-Host, LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/smittysgp/ YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TheGeneralistsPodcast

Daniel Cerventus Lim, semi-retired entrepreneur, Community Builder in Malaysia and TEDxKL founder. LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cerventus/Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/groups/80164351656

Podcast Information: Bernard Leong hosts and produces the show. The proper credits for the intro and end music are "Energetic Sports Drive." G. Thomas Craig mixed and edited the episode in both video and audio format.