Can we really predict when doomsday will happen? – William Poundstone

In this episode of the Science Focus Podcast, we’re going to try to guess when the end of the world will happen.

Don’t worry, it’s not as gloomy as it might sound. Those people waving ‘The End is Nigh!’ placards are probably completely wrong about an immanent doomsday… Probably.

There is a formula that has circulated for the last 50 years which suggests we can pinpoint the end of something with a reasonable amount of certainty. It has been used to predict any number of things, including successful stock market investments, the run of Broadway shows and even how many Harry Potter books go missing from local libraries.

But since the 1990s, it has sparked considerable debate among theorists about when humanity as we know it will come to an end.

We ask William Poundstone - whose new book How To Predict Everything (£12.99, Oneworld) explains the history of this enigmatic equation - how long we have left as a species on this planet, whether we can shift the odds in our favour, and how we can predict, well, pretty much everything else.

How long do you think we have left, and why? Let us know on Twitter at @sciencefocus, and don’t forget to rate and review us wherever you listen to your podcasts.

Listen to more episodes of the Science Focus Podcast:

• What if the Earth’s magnetic field died? – Jim Al-Khalili
• How can we save our planet? – Sir David Attenborough
• There is no Plan B for planet Earth – Lord Martin Rees
• The future of humanity – Michio Kaku
• Are we facing an insect apocalypse? – Brad Lister
• This is how to invent everything – Ryan North

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