Get Rich Education 460: Real Estate Cash Flow vs. Stock Cash Flow
In this podcast episode, Keith Weinhold and Kirk Chisholm discuss the differences between real estate and stock investing.
Kirk Chisholm is the Principal of Innovative Advisory Group. He provides his perspective as a wealth manager, emphasizing the control and lower risk offered by alternative assets like real estate.
Learn the difference between risk and volatility.
We discuss risk-adjusted returns, liquidity, and the importance of understanding and managing risk. The conversation also covers cash flow, dividends, big tech stocks, and private mortgages.
Interest rates and inflation—we discuss their future. Kirk believes rates will stay at this higher rate for a long time.
Timestamps:
The Paradigm Shift in Interest Rates and Inflation [00:00:01]
Discussion on the new paradigm of interest rates and inflation and how it affects real estate and stock investors.
The Impact of Front Porches on Society [00:01:35]
Exploration of the impact of the disappearance of front porches on neighborhoods and communities.
The Definition and Management of Risk in Investments [00:05:50]
Explanation of how risk is defined and managed in different types of investments, including stocks, real estate, and alternative assets.
The difference between volatility and risk [00:10:21]
Explanation of the temporary price movements (volatility) and permanent impairment of capital (risk) in different investment assets.
The illiquidity of real estate and non-traded REITs [00:13:11]
Discussion on the illiquidity of real estate compared to publicly traded markets and the example of non-traded REITs during the 2008 financial crisis.
Importance of cash flow and dividends in stock investments [00:15:26]
Exploration of the two camps in stock investing: cash flow-driven investors and appreciation-driven investors, and the significance of dividends and cash flow in stock investments.
Dividend Stocks and Value Stocks [00:20:17]
Explanation of the difference between growth stocks and value stocks, with a focus on dividend-paying stocks.
Private Mortgages and Cash Flow [00:21:12]
Discussion on the benefits of investing in private mortgages and how it provides a passive income stream.
Default Rates on Hard Money Loans [00:25:48]
Exploration of the default rates on hard money loans and the industry's approach to mitigating risks for both borrowers and lenders.
The new paradigm of interest rates and inflation [00:31:32]
Kirk Chisholm discusses the shift in the economic paradigm from low interest rates and inflation to higher rates and a shrinking economy.
The impact of higher rates on mortgages and real estate [00:35:39]
Kirk explains how higher interest rates affect mortgage payments and housing affordability, leading to a decline in house prices.
The consequences of higher rates on corporate America [00:37:48]
Kirk discusses how higher rates can impact corporations, particularly those with short-term debt, potentially leading to bankruptcies and market clean-up.
Higher rates and recession correlation [00:39:55]
Discussion on the correlation between recessions and lowering of interest rates, and why it may not happen in the future due to high inflation.
Fed's focus on stable prices [00:42:48]
The Federal Reserve's prioritization of stable prices over high employment, within their dual mandate.
Interest rates and the economy [00:44:10]
The potential impact of higher interest rates on the economy, with a discussion on when the next recession may occur.
Resources mentioned:
Show Notes:
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Complete episode transcript:
Keith Weinhold (00:00:01) - Welcome to. I'm your host, Keith White. As a real estate investor, you are highly cognizant of your cash flows to stock investors. Even think about that and how we've now entered a completely new paradigm of interest rates and inflation and how to respond today on Get Rich Education with real estate capital Jacksonville. Real estate has outperformed the stock market by 44% over the last 20 years. It's proven to be a more stable asset, especially during recessions. Their vertically integrated strategy has led to 79% more home price appreciation compared to the average Jacksonville investor since 2013. GPB is ready to help your money make money and to make it easy for everyday investors. Get started at GWB Real estate. Agree that's GWB Real estate. Agree.
Speaker 2 (00:00:59) - You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is Get rich education.
Keith Weinhold (00:01:22) - What category? From Bogota, Colombia, to Wichita, Kansas, and across 188 nations worldwide. You are back in that abundantly minded place where financially free beats debt free.
Keith Weinhold (00:01:35) - And by now you might have already won the inflation Triple Crown. I'm your host, Keith Wild. Hey, Noah, is this a real estate problem? Philip Gulley, the author of Porch Talk. He said, I believe all that is wrong with the world can be attributed to the shortage of front porches and the talks we had on them. Somewhere around 1950, builders left off the front porch to save money, and we've had nothing but problems ever since. That's just the sort of thing that I think about now as you and I are enjoying the dog days of summer, as I trust that you are, you know, neighborhoods, property, it all used to be more wide open. The Pennsylvania house that I grew up in and that my parents still live in, it has a real front porch. And no one I mean, nobody has fences around their yard either. It is a real lemonade sipping chat with the neighbors vibe there that, well, seems to be more and more of a remnant of yesteryear.
Keith Weinhold (00:02:44) - I mean, gosh, from what I can see, there are more and more gated communities. Uh, people tend to get more concerned about security and that often means that they trade away freedom. Hey, well, our guest on the show today, he hits differently. And you're going to feel that because he's the principal of a firm that helps investors with stocks, bonds and mutual funds, as well as real estate investing. And it's not just REITs, real estate investment trusts, but more than that. And, you know, whenever he and I talk, we tend to get each other thinking in different ways, in shape, each other's opinions somewhat, as you'll probably see again today. He and I disagree on some things and we agree on others. I'm going to ask him about whether or not stock investors even care about cash flow. We'll be sure to get his insights on the direction of interest rates and inflation and more. Well, I'd like to welcome in our guest today he runs innovative wealth.com he's the principle and a wealth manager there at innovative advisory group.
Keith Weinhold (00:03:54) - They're based in Massachusetts but they advise well beyond any state borders. Hey it's been a few years. It's great to have you back. Kirk Chisholm Thanks for inviting me back. Keith. I was a little worried there didn't appear well in your show, but thanks for having me back. Yeah, well, it's been absolutely too long, and I really appreciate your perspective because they're with what you do. You're principal of a company that helps people invest in a big, wide palette of things, from stocks to private mortgages and some things with real estate and elsewhere. So you have this really broad view. So tell us what percentage of your business is is stocks, bonds and their derivative products like ETFs and mutual funds versus everything else? It's interesting because my industry is primarily focused on stocks, bonds and mutual funds. It always has been, probably always will be, in large part because they're easy to sell, They're publicly available information and everyone is can simply just click a button and get it done. So my industry tends to work towards lazy solutions or simple solutions.
Keith Weinhold (00:05:00) - Nothing wrong with that. You just have to know with what you're getting. It's funny, when we started our firm in 2008, we were doing a lot of private mortgages and we talked to the regulators at the time and they said, Oh, well, what percentage of your accounts in alternatives? Because we told them we did alternatives like what percentage of your accounts? And we said, Yeah, somewhere like 40 to 50%. You know, it probably ranges between 40 and 60. You could hear a pin drop in that room. I did pick the lady's mouth off the floor like she couldn't believe that. How quote unquote, risky that is. And she said the first question, she's like, are you serious? Isn't that really risky? And I started laughing and I said, risky? You mean like Worldcom, Enron, AIG, Tyco, You know, like Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns? They just kept going on and on. She's like, all right, I get the point. And we had to define the concept of risk.
Keith Weinhold (00:05:50) - This is the part that your audience will appreciate, right? If you're investing in a company, it's been screened by the SEC. It's passed certain muster. It's SEC doesn't endorse it, but it's passed certain muster. You say, all right, I feel comfortable that this company's met the minimum criteria. That's not always the case. Right. Companies go bankrupt all the time. And we actually have a spike in bankruptcies most recently because of the economy. But if you look at piece of real estate, I can go walk up and touch it. I can go to the Registry of Deeds and see that I own it. I can talk to the maintenance guy or the property manager and see what's going on and have influence on it. I would say if you know what you're doing, there's a lot less risk. And I would say if you own a piece of gold, what's your risk? I could lose it. Somebody could steal it. The government confiscates it. That's pretty much it, right? It's not going to zero.
Keith Weinhold (00:06:37) - It's not going to the moon. It's just a rock. The way you define risk is really something that a lot of people don't spend time with is managing that risk. So a lot of what we've done is we've looked at it from a different perspective. What is the best investment given the criteria that we have, the markets we're in and the risk available? You know, what is going to do the best considering the risk as an example, Bitcoin or Ethereum or any sort of cryptocurrency, the risk is it could go to zero, right? It's not going to go below zero risk as you lose all your money or you might make 10 or 20 times your money, right? That is also possible. Both scenarios are probably on the extreme ends of probable, but either way, like you have to account for both scenarios and say is it worth it going to zero for me to make X amount of return? If the answer is yes, then it makes sense. If the answer is no, then don't invest in it or invest in a lot less of it.
Keith Weinhold (00:07:31) - So that's kind of how we look at risk and that's why we look across the board for alternative assets. We're very agnostic about the assets because it really just comes down to, is it a good investment or not? That's really the criteria we look at. Risk is what goes beyond the edge of your understanding. Think that's what applies to that conversation that you had that you brought up there earlier. Right. It's largely about one's risk adjusted return. You talk about with real estate how you have more control over an investment because you can get in there and understand it and change the operations of it in order to drive a return. And then stocks have this very efficient market where it's quick and easy to get in and out and things are more liquid. This very efficient market with real estate, there really isn't any app you can go on and be like, Oh, okay, well my duplex was up 3/10 of 1% this past week. That doesn't happen. That's part of the inherent inefficiencies with direct ownership of real estate, of course.
Keith Weinhold (00:08:32) - I would argue the point of efficient markets, the stock market is is not efficient, despite what the academics will tell you. It is more liquid. I would argue that real estate is illiquid, which is good and bad, right? If you need to sell, it's bad. If you're looking to buy and you don't need to buy, it could be really good. Stock market is very different in that it's claimed to be efficiently priced with all the known information at the given time. And the price is the price. And what I would argue is that's an interesting philosophical standpoint, but it's inaccurate, right? Because if all the information was known, then we wouldn't have volatility. But we do have volatility and the stock market is a forward pricing discount mechanism, right? So you look out six months and say, what's the market going to do? That's where the stock prices are six months from now, not today, six months from now. So whatever the market thinks is happening, they think it's going to happen then.
Keith Weinhold (00:09:26) - So if you look at interest rates, which I'm sure we'll get to, they're looking out six months and for the last two years I've noticed on the expectation of the yield curve, it's that, oh, rates are going to drop in the next 3 to 6 months and in 3 to 6 months it's going to drop in 3 to 6 months. Over and over, it keeps pricing out well, another 3 or 6 months. And I think that the market doesn't really look beyond that because it's really hard to predict. First of all, you can't predict the future anyway, but if you're probabilistically, going to try beyond six months is really hard because there's so many things that got to happen that changed the dynamics significantly. Talk about efficiency with stocks. I'm talking about how stocks are efficient and easy to liquidate. It's pretty easy to sell. And then over here in real estate investing, there is no panic selling because it takes quite a while to buy into sell. Therefore, that's some of the inefficiency of real estate compared to stocks.
Keith Weinhold (00:10:21) - We look at that through a liquidity perspective, right? So liquidity can be a good thing or a bad thing because when there's panic, selling, liquidity can lead to greater volatility like we see in stock. Yeah. And I want to point out two things here. So first is there's a difference between volatility and risk. And I think it's really important for people to understand the difference. So volatility is temporary price movements. It's how much the price fluctuates in any given day. Real estate investors don't see this right, But stock investors, Microsoft is up 5% yesterday. Nvidia's up like whatever, 70% of the day or whatever it was, 30 some odd percent in a day. That's volatility, right? You look at stock prices drop 30 plus percent in a short period of time. Technically, that should have been risk because the whole global economy shut down. But it turned into volatility because it went down and it came back up, actually exceeded the price of the start of Covid by the end of the year, which is insane to think about.
Keith Weinhold (00:11:20) - The whole world shut down. People are locked in their houses and yet the stock market is up. That is what I would consider volatility. Now, risk is what I would call a permanent impairment of capital. Now what that means is you buy a Beanie Baby at $100 because you think it's going to be worth a lot more. And then all of a sudden the Beanie Baby bubble crashes and never recovers and it turns into a $100 Beanie Baby into like a dollar. That's a permanent impairment of capital. That is a risk that you're not going to ever get your money back. You buy a I hate to swear on your show, but a beep coin that make up most of the cryptocurrency coins out there. They could all go to zero. I mean, you look at drawing a blank on the one with that. Elon Musk supports the dog dogecoin. Yeah, they claim this zero. It's a socially supported currency, but it doesn't have any value and they all admit it doesn't have any value. It's virtually worthless except for what people are willing to pay for it.
Keith Weinhold (00:12:15) - That has the potential to have risk in it because it could go to zero. But if I'm investing in GE, Microsoft, Apple, Johnson, Johnson, whatever, these companies that produce cash flow, they're solid companies with a long, long track record, they could certainly go to zero, no question. But typically the movements in price are volatility. Risk is when the chairman goes off, steals all the money and moves off to some island and people are left holding the bag saying, what's going on? You know, you look at AIG, Lehman Brothers, Bear Stearns, all those companies that basically made bad decisions, that is risk. That is not volatility. So it's important to understand the differences between the two, because if you don't, most people think of I am managing risk, I'm diversifying. No, you're managing volatility. Managing risk is completely different and you have to use different tools for that. Most people don't manage risk, they manage volatility. The other point I want to make is you mentioned the illiquidity of real estate.
Keith Weinhold (00:13:11) - And I want to point out an example which is kind of bordering the owning your own real estate versus, let's say, a REIT. I remember back in 2008, nine and ten when people were jumping out of the windows because they couldn't get rid of their illiquid non traded REITs. And I'm not a supporter of that of non-trade REITs or people jumping out of Windows. But in general, the non traded REITs market was interesting because technically they said you'd have quarterly liquidity, you could get a quarterly and normal times. That was true. They would just cash you out if you need money. However, when everyone's running for the door at the same time, they can't cash everybody out because they can't sell the property. So what do they do? They lock the doors, locked everybody in to burn alive. Well, the price went from, let's say, hypothetically, $100 down to $10 and people wanted out at any price. It didn't matter. They needed out. They need liquidity. Whatever it was, there were actually markets around.
Keith Weinhold (00:14:03) - You could buy people's shares of these non traded reach for like $0.10 in the dollar and people were willing to pay to discount 90% of the investment where you could have just walked in and purchased it and waited another five, seven years and you could have made 100 cents in the dollar. It's crazy. But that's one of the nice parts about real estate. And I'm using a security as an example because you can do that in real estate. But when you have the publicly traded markets, that doesn't necessarily happen, but it can happen in certain periods of time when the markets are completely irrational and everybody thinks the world is ending. Sure, that's a be greedy when other people are fearful, sort of seeing their I know their IT innovative advisory group. Since you do have this wide palette of offerings, you kind of have this broader view of things. I'm wondering, Kirk, a lot of people in that stock world, many of them concerned with cash flow or it might be dividend there, or are they even as interested in cash flow there with the kind of stock and mutual fund investments as they are over here in the real estate world where we're quite interested in cash flow? And then do they even take the dividends or do they just reinvest them, which is called a drip program dividend reinvestment program? How important is that to investors on the stock side? It's a good question.
Keith Weinhold (00:15:26) - So what tends to happen is people kind of fall into two camps, much like the real estate camp. Some people fall into the. Cash flow camp. Which is your camp? Which is my opinion. I think that's the best way to invest is cash flow appreciation. You're just taking a guess. But there are good amount of people that are appreciation driven. They don't look at cash, so they're happy to make zero cash flow for the expectation They're going to make lots of money and appreciation and look at them like, What are you thinking? Like, what if the cash flow declines? You're going to support the negative cash. Why do you own it? It's silly, but some people think that way. They think, Let's go for the appreciation. Let's roll the dice. Let's go. No whammies, you know? And what ends up happening is these people make mistakes because the real estate market, this usually happens at closer to the tops and people make bad decisions and they realize, oh, crap, I can't make this work.
Keith Weinhold (00:16:16) - I was trying to Airbnb this with a two cap, this not working. So now I need to sell this thing or I'm going to lose my shirt. I had these conversations all the time. So using that as an example, because that's where your audience will understand dividend investors the same. So a lot of people, when they're investing in stocks, they're looking at stocks as a way to make money. Most people want total growth, which really means in their mind, appreciation. What are the stock market do this week? What did it do this quarter? That's all people want to know. Well, what about the dividends? Well, actually, there was a time 40, 50 years ago when dividends mattered, you could get six, seven, eight, 9% dividends. Now, that's absurd to think about that. The only stocks that pay dividends of that nature are stocks that are highly speculative or the dividend is highly speculative. Market typically looks at dividends and if they don't trust the dividend will continue to get paid.
Keith Weinhold (00:17:08) - They'll actually discount the stock, which will make the dividend look real attractive. It'll suck people in to buy it and then they'll slash the dividend back to a rate that's normal. So people looking at dividend stocks, be careful because we're not in that environment where dividend stocks are all that attractive. If I can get a 5% close to zero risk US Treasury bond and I can compare that to a 2% dividend stock, I'll take the Treasury all day because it's close to guaranteed dividend stock. Maybe it goes up, maybe it goes down, who knows? But, you know, ultimately you're trying to solve a problem. The big challenge we have now, is any of this sustainable? Are the cash flows sustainable? Good value? Investors should be looking at cash flows. They should be looking at metrics and trying to find stocks that are at a good price that will pay them a handsome return over time. And the problem is, is we don't live in that environment much like the real estate market. It gets overheated because too many people are chasing too few properties and virtually everyone was putting all their money into 5 to 7 stocks on the Fantastic Seven or the Faang stocks or whatever you want to call it These days.
Keith Weinhold (00:18:18) - That name changes all the time. But the point is, you've got big tech that's driving most of the return this year. Think big tech made up 2,530% of the S&P 500 500 stocks. You have five stocks making up 25 to 30% of the index by size. And by return, it made up think the S&P was up 15%. And these 5 or 7 stocks made up 13% of that 15. Really crazy, crazy to think about. Right. But that's what people look at is the index. And the index is not necessarily accurate, but that's what people look at. So you have to gauge it by that. Most of the marketplace is chasing these appreciation returns. And like you have with real estate, you get the good with the bad, you chase appreciation. You can win or lose. I don't know where the future is going to be, but I know that if I'm chasing cash flow, I'm pretty certain I know where that's going. But if I'm investing in a tech stock that has negative cash flow, I have no idea where that's going.
Keith Weinhold (00:19:19) - Right. Could go up, could go down, who knows? But I look for stocks with good cash flow. I think if you're going to invest well, you want to find a legacy stock that you feel comfortable owning forever. Now, when it comes back to the Fang acronym, I tend to think Nvidia should be replacing Netflix in the Fang acronym about this time. But dropping back earlier when we were talking about dividends, I don't track this very closely, but last I checked, probably last year it seemed like the average dividend paying stock in the S&P 500 was something like 2%. Is that still about right? I think it's actually a little bit lower. I haven't looked at it in the last few weeks because it's gotten so low, it's almost not even worth looking at. I think last year was 1.77. As of right now, it's 1.47 on the S&P 500, 1.5%, which is insanely low for real estate investors. I think of the dividend yield in stocks as being synonymous with the cash on cash return in real estate.
Keith Weinhold (00:20:17) - But you said something earlier about dividends, Kirk, that I actually thought was the opposite way. I thought that dividend paying stocks tended to be kind of those older, stodgy or staid, like a utility company rather than a younger tech. Company. Yes, that is accurate. Yes, Most of the dividend stocks are what we would consider value stocks. So the terms growth, stock and value stock are actually don't mean anything. They're what everyone wants it to mean. What they tend to mean is growth Stocks tend to be stocks that are focused on appreciation. Value stocks are typically focused on cash flows or their stocks that are discounted, and you can buy them for good cash flow. But if you look at a stock like Microsoft, I mean, you got the dividend yield is about 75 basis points, 76 basis points as of today. So you're getting less than 1%. But Microsoft's one of the the Fang stocks, right, or Fang, whatever they're calling it now, they come up with a new acronym.
Keith Weinhold (00:21:12) - But some of these big tech Apple's fang of dividend so some of the big tech actually are paying dividends. Now what we're talking about, the production of cash flow or income from both stocks and real estate here. And one thing that I know you do in there and that you help investors with is private mortgages in producing an income stream that way. Can you tell us more about that? Is that where you have clients where you connect them with ways to make hard money, loans to real estate investors, for example? As we talk about here, I'm a big fan of cash flows and I have a few favorite asset classes and they're not the stock market, right? I love real estate. I love tax liens. Tax lien is by far my favorite. If you can get them the right way and the right price, which you can't, but if you could, that's one of my favorites for many reasons, but one of the ones that we do a lot of are hard money loans or private mortgages.
Keith Weinhold (00:22:05) - The reason I love it is because they're simple. If you're investing in real estate, it's not passive income. It's a business. You have to manage the business. You have a property manager, you've got tenants, you've got expenses, you've got taxes. All this stuff you have to deal with, which is fine. There's nothing wrong with that. But when people invest passively, it's not passive, right? It's active. It just happens to be a different business than one that you're selling widgets out of the corner store. If you're investing in private mortgages, you have to do your due diligence up front. But once you invest in it, you're done until you get paid back. It's like any sort of fixed income. It's a bond. It's fixed income is how I look at it now. For the past ten plus years, you couldn't get any rates on bonds, your fixed income, part of your portfolio, your treasuries, your corporate bonds, whatever you're buying, you're getting close to zero.
Keith Weinhold (00:22:54) - And there was a lot of risk. So we substituted these for our fixed income and you're getting 10 to 15% over the last ten years where the common rates and I like them because you're getting access to real estate. So real estate is backing the note. So it's a mortgage, right? So you're lending somebody else money at, let's say, 12% and they're going to pay you that 12% and give your money back at the end. And if they don't, you get their property. Now, personally, I don't want their property is too much headache because when I got to do foreclosure and go through all that, that's not the point. Some people do. Some people invest in hard money with the assumption they're going to own that property. And it's a great acquisition strategy. If you're so inclined. It's not you know, I have clients. I can't have that kind of business model. It's just too much of a headache for everybody. So we want people that are going to pay and pay on time and people are going to continually come back and I can work with versus having the lender investor that actually helps the borrower default so that they can get the property correct, which like I said, is a great investment strategy.
Keith Weinhold (00:23:55) - It's just not our investment strategy. And I think just like real estate, you can buy foreclosures, you can buy off MLS, you can build. There's so many different things you can do. Same thing with notes with paper. Paper is a great asset class if you know what you're doing. The challenge with private mortgages, hard money now is because everything is so expensive that these investors, these fixed and flippers investors would have. You can't make money. And I know there are people out there that are doing it. So it's not that it's not happening, but anybody I know that's really good at fixing flip or rehabs or things like that in my area, not speaking for every part of the country in Miami, in the Boston area, they're not doing deals because they can't make money. There's no margin of error. If they were to compete and win the deal and they make a mistake, they're going to lose money. They don't want to lose money. So they need to have a big enough margin cushion so that they make a mistake.
Keith Weinhold (00:24:49) - They're still making money. So these people we work with, they're not doing deals because there are no deals to find. So that means there are fewer mortgages times like 2008, nine and ten, we didn't have enough client cash to put to work. Like we had so many notes coming at us we didn't have enough cash to find. Now it's the reverse. There's plenty of cash chasing them and there's not enough notes out there. And a lot of the notes are poor quality because the risk is too high. We want easy. We want somebody paying on time, we want our money back and then go on and do it again. So I love them for cash flow. It's simple and easy and it solves a lot of problems. So this is interesting. If you as a real estate investor have ever taken a hard money loan, you might wonder who the lender is on the other side of that. And that might be someone like Kirk's clients in there where he is. Kirk. Can you tell us more about the default rates on the hard money loans lately? How often do they not get paid back and do they go into default? Yeah, that's a good question.
Keith Weinhold (00:25:48) - So I don't know the industry rates. So we work with a handful of people and that's all we work with, so we know the rates for them. I'll tell you about ours and I'll tell you about the industry a little bit more. So for us, we've done hundreds and hundreds of these things and I would say less than 1% of them have had issue. So we are truly not looking for rates of default. A tornado tore through the neighborhood and tore off the roof. That's an issue. That's not something I can deal with. Right. Guy you're working with dies. It's an issue you got to deal with, right? Like this isn't somebody making a bad deal or run away with the money. This is stuff that you can't predict and is inevitably going to happen in one way, shape or form. So we mitigate the risk as much as possible, but our rates of default or I would say not even default, but just having issue with the loan because most of the stuff it's, you know, maybe discount if you have a something like that, maybe it's your discounting the interest instead of getting the full interest, maybe get partial interest or even no interest, get your money back.
Keith Weinhold (00:26:44) - Like for us, it's like, how do you handle a default is really important because the borrower, there's some risk there, but then there's the lender, there's some risk there. So you have to find a balance that makes everybody happy so that, you know, the borrower is not taking it on the chin because then they're not going to come back. But it's not all in the lender either. So you have to find a balance and work with people. Much like with real estate, you know, you get a bad tenant, so you try to work with them so you still get paid. It's the same kind of thing. But if you look at the industry, the industry is interesting. So I interview a lot of hard money lenders on my show over the years and fascinated to hear what they say and some of the people who do the most or they're in charge of marketplaces of these notes. What they've been telling me for the last few years is think about this way. A lot of these things come from developers or fixing flippers.
Keith Weinhold (00:27:31) - They get their properties out of foreclosure, they get it out of sheriff's sale, they get out of fire or estate sales like these things where they're highly discounted. So during Covid, the courts were shut down for a year and a half. You couldn't get these properties if you were foreclosed on, you couldn't get foreclosed on for two years because the courts weren't open. And when they did open, there was such a backlog of other stuff that was more important than that. They were dealing with like murderers and whatever, rapists, people that actually need to go to jail. And they're not dealing with foreclosures to the same extent. So the courts are backed up for a long period of time. And so when they finally opened up, you start to see a trickle through. You're starting to see more now. But that was a big challenge to the market. So what I've been hearing for the people who are really deep in this market and they see everybody across the board, across the country is they've all said that there's a tidal wave coming.
Keith Weinhold (00:28:24) - And a lot of the problem is, is there are a lot of bad notes out there. So there are people who basically created these notes, right? So they underwrote the notes. They they lent money to somebody with bad terms or is a bad loan like the person should have borrowed or whatever it is, they're still paying. But you see, the quality of the paper is really bad. And what's going to happen is if you see a hiccup in the real estate market, then you're going to see this paper flush through the system because all of a sudden this deal that was marginal is now a bad deal and it flushes through either people default or they sell or whatever. And that stuff has to flush through the system until it does, the market's not going to be efficient. Everyone is waiting around saying, I know there's bad paper out there. I'm trying to find good stuff and it's harder to find, but it's not from a lack of paper, it's from a lack of quality paper. And this happens every real estate cycle.
Keith Weinhold (00:29:19) - Having 2008, nine, ten flushes out the bad people, buy the paper at a discount. You're listening to Get Rejection. We're talking with innovative welcomes Principal Kirk Chisholm when we come back, including his take on where we're going with interest rates and inflation. I'm your host, Keith Lindholm. You know, I'll just tell you, for the most passive part of my real estate investing personally, I put my own dollars with Freedom family Investments because their funds pay me a stream of regular cash flow in. Returns are better than a bank savings account up to 12%. Their minimums are as low as 25 K. You don't even need to be accredited. For some of them. It's all backed by real estate. And I kind of love how the tax benefit of doing this can offset capital gains in your W-2, jobs, income. And they've always given me exactly their stated return paid on time. So it's steady income, no surprises while I'm sleeping or just doing the things I love. For a little insider tip, I've invested in their power fund to get going on that text family to 668660.
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Speaker 3 (00:31:16) - This is author Jim Rickards. Listen to Get Rich Education with Keith Reinhold and Don't Quit Your Day Dream.
Keith Weinhold (00:31:32) - Welcome back to Get Rich. We're talking with Kirk Chisholm. He is the principal and a wealth manager at Innovative Advisory Group. And I like to chat with Kirk and some of these people that have this bigger picture view where they offer clients stock options, real estate options and more. In Kirk, I know you like to say that we're sort of living in a new paradigm and that people are only just now starting to realize this new paradigm, which has to do with interest rates and inflation.
Keith Weinhold (00:32:01) - So tell us about this new paradigm. Let's take us back a few years. So if you think about what's happened in history, I'm a student of history, much like you are, Keith, You look back in history, it's instructive as to how the future may act, right? It's never going to mirror that because it doesn't happen that way, as I think it was. Mark Twain has said that history never repeats, but it rhymes. I'm not sure if that's actually attributed to him, even though people say it is. But point being is if you look back in history for the pretty much starting in like the 70s, we had a period of time and I'm going to come back to the 70s, but we had a period of time where things were volatile, we had high interest rates and we peaked at 20% rates depending on which rate we're talking about. The 30 year treasuries, I think it hit 15%. Fed funds rate hit 20%. So we had some pretty high numbers. And so the subsequent 40 years, interest rates declined for 40 years.
Keith Weinhold (00:32:56) - If you had bought a 15%, 30 year Treasury in 1980, 1981 and held on for the whole 30 years, you would have made 15% for that whole time. And it bottomed out a few years ago. So think about the 70s. Like, here's the economy, right? I got my hands together. Here's the economy. This is what it looks like, right? It's this size Now. If you start injecting leverage, you get a mortgage on your real estate. That's leverage. The company borrows money. That's leverage. Right? So you're borrowing money. So your borrowing future cash flows to use today. So let's say I own a home outright and I decide, hey, I want to borrow money to go buy a motorcycle, whatever. Okay. Well, I just increased the economy size because I borrowed money, right? So I've increased the amount of money in circulation from 1983 81 until pretty much a few years ago, the interest rates went from a high amount of 20% down to close to zero.
Keith Weinhold (00:33:51) - Now, the lower the interest rates, the more you can borrow. So if you think about the economy, it kept increasing as rates drop because you can borrow more and more money. Now, how much money can you borrow? A 0%. Keith An infinite amount, in theory, yes. As much as they'll give you. And how much? If it's negative, I don't know. I'm going to borrow a bunch of people and borrow their money like and we get into this crazy period we had a few years ago where there actually negative rates in Japan still does. But the point is, is the lower the rate, the bigger the economy can be because you're allowed to leverage more and it means you can borrow more money and use that money for other things. And now that's a problem because you're borrowing future cash flows to use today. So at some point you got to pay that back one way, shape or form or another. The thing is, is that is increased the size of the economy over this time.
Keith Weinhold (00:34:37) - So the paradigm from the early 80s until a few years ago was one of leverage and growth. And there's a lot of things went into that globalization, outsourcing to China and Asia, technology, all these things influence this growth of the economy. But then in 2021, we hit the lowest rates. We hit mortgage rates at 2.5%. Fed funds rates were low, Treasuries were low, and they started raising rates in 2022. So the economy now started to shrink because you can borrow less. Now, it didn't actually shrink, but I'm using this for illustrative purposes. So if I'm looking at this big, huge balloon and think of it as a balloon, right? You start as there's no air in it, you blow it up with air, you get this huge balloon. Well, as rates go up, you start to let air out of the balloon because you can't sustain high interest rates because it comes down to cash flow. So what ends up happening is as rates go up, the economy effectively starts to shrink over time because if low rates help it expand, higher rates will contract it.
Keith Weinhold (00:35:39) - But it doesn't happen today or tomorrow. It happens over years, as the economy did in the last 40 years. So the paradigm we had changed two years ago and now we have high interest rates and the economy is shrinking to acclimate to this new higher rate environment. So you could have bought mortgage for 2.5% for 30 years on the house. You bought a $500,000 house, 2.5%. You probably would have paid, I think, $3,700 a month rate. You're paying $3,700 a month. That's where you can afford. And most people were doing that, so they bought as much as they could afford. However, now mortgage rates are seven and a quarter at seven and a half. That $3,700 a month mortgage is now doubled. So now you're looking at about a $7,400 a month mortgage. I can't afford $7,400 a month, so I can't buy that same price house. Now, the house price to accommodate that has to decline. And I'm using real Estate Illustrated because it also I'll tell you in a minute so the house price has declined to accommodate that higher payments because people can only buy what they can afford.
Keith Weinhold (00:36:43) - Now take that illustration and overlay that into corporate America, because companies do the same thing. They borrow as much as they can get away with. As you say, with mortgages, it's fixed. It doesn't affect me because it's fixed. And same thing with corporations doesn't affect me. It's fixed. That's correct. Which is why it doesn't impact the economy immediately. But it does impact it over time because with the 30 year mortgage, you never have to move. But if you do have to move, you're in trouble. If you own commercial property, you don't have 30 years, you might have a five or a ten year mortgage, which is going to roll at some point in time and hopefully rates are lower. But if they're not now, you've got some explaining to do, right? In corporate America, there's a lot of companies that get, you know, short term debt that's going to roll over at a higher rate. How are they going to afford it? Johnson, Johnson, Apple, Microsoft, they can afford it, but can borderline junk bonds, companies that are low quality, that are just making it, barely making it buy in cash flow because they can borrow money? What about them? Well, they're going to be forced to make hard decisions or go into bankruptcy.
Keith Weinhold (00:37:48) - So what higher rates do? It basically cleans up the economy by taking out the inefficient players and forcing some into bankruptcy, foreclosures, whatever it may be, it effectively will clean up the market, but it also caused the economy to shrink. So it destroys capital. And if we have rates that are higher for longer than, let's say a few more months, if they're higher for 5 or 10 years, it's going to be a problem. And I think we're going to have higher rates a lot longer than most people think. The market is predicting another six months they're going to drop rates. They've been saying that for the last year. So I don't think they're accurate. I think it's going to be at least a year, maybe two, and then we'll see what happens. Hard to see that far out, but people need to be become acclimated to these higher rates for a while because if you look at historically, these aren't that high. Their average rates. Yeah, they're right in the mean like we're not high historically.
Keith Weinhold (00:38:43) - If you look at bond yields I mean you look at late 90s, you've got up to 6%. I think you've got to 6 or 7% and depending on what you're investing in. So we are not high and default rates are not high. Default rates for high yield bonds historically are 7%. I think we're like 1% like last 15 years. So the numbers that we saw were extreme examples of the economy. And we're going to find a happy balance somewhere. And I don't know where that is, but this new paradigm is about reassessing the assumptions you're making about your investments, about the economy and any assumption what are interest rates going to be? What's inflation going to be? These are things that people never even thought of. They just assumed, Oh, inflation is going to be 3%, I'll just use that. Or interest rates, they're going to be similar. You can't make those assumptions anymore. You have to have broader. Lateral testing of whether this is going to work or not. You've done a great job of breaking down that new paradigm where basically that 40 year period from 1981 to 2021, we had gradually declining interest rates and something in 2021, that's where things changed and we entered into a new paradigm of increasing interest rates.
Keith Weinhold (00:39:55) - So as we're winding down here, you stated you think that we will have persistently higher rates for quite a while. So many people have been saying a recession is just around the corner for so long. It's sort of annoying to really think about it. But as we know, with the recession, that generally correlates with a lowering of interest rates. But you don't see that happening by next year, say, with a lowering of interest rates that corresponds with a recession. What you said is recessions typically correlate with lower rates. You're correct. But what if they don't? I'll give you some examples here of why things are different and why it matters. So if the last 20 plus years, if we had a recession or even a sniff of a recession, the Fed would drop rates, print money, they would boost the markets back up. Everything would be fine. Right. Problems solved. Right? The world's going to end. Don't worry. Here comes the Fed to the rescue. They did that for 20 years.
Keith Weinhold (00:40:49) - But now we have high inflation. So with high inflation, they can't do that because if they do that, it causes inflation to spike, much like the 70s. Now they're not oblivious to the 70s. They know full well what happened and they don't want to repeat it. What they're saying has been pretty clear. We're going to make sure we kill inflation. We don't want it coming back. It is very probable that we have inflation dipped down into two even 0% this year. There's the probability is low, but it's probability we could hit 0% inflation by the end of the year. However, I don't think it's going to stay there because we tend to get a bullwhip effect, which we've seen in many commodity prices, lumber in particular, where the prices go up and then too many people, they make too much lumber to sell and then there's a glut and then it goes lower and then it goes higher because, you know, so you get this bullwhip effect, which is a problem which caused and it's the same thing with inflation, right? You get this bullwhip effect because the changes have been too drastic that people can't adjust, so they over adjust, are under adjust, and that causes this big change.
Keith Weinhold (00:41:50) - So I think we're going to have a dip back to inflation, probably not 8%. But when that happens, they're going to have to come back and raise rates. So what they're trying to do is they're trying to keep rates higher, longer to make sure inflation doesn't come back. We're really in this back and forth of where are we going to go, where's the Fed going to take us? And if it tends to be five years of high rates, that's going to really impact the economy and eventually we will hit a recession. But I think the probability is showing very low probability of recession anytime soon because it's not playing out in the data. Some data is showing yes, some data is showing no. But when I start to see that, it means it just doesn't matter. It's not going to show up. Well, that's some good perspective, Kirk. CPI inflation peaked at.
Speaker 3 (00:42:36) - 9.1%.
Keith Weinhold (00:42:37) - A little over a year ago. It's at 3% now. But yeah, one place where I agree with you, Kirk, is, yeah, the Fed sure does not want to see that pop back up again.
Keith Weinhold (00:42:48) - And within the Fed's dual mandate of high employment and stable prices, it seems like they're prioritizing stable prices over keeping employment high, that's for sure. Well, yeah, there's been a great wide ranging chat.
Speaker 3 (00:43:01) - With interest.
Keith Weinhold (00:43:02) - Rates.
Speaker 3 (00:43:03) - Inflation stocks, real estate and producing income from both of them. Kirk If our audience wants to reach out to you or learn more about what you do, they're at Innovative Advisory Group. How can they do that?
Keith Weinhold (00:43:15) - Thanks, Keith. So yeah, the best way people can find me, I'm really easy to find. They can go to my podcast, Money Tree. Podcast. Com. We have two shows a week. One show we interview really intelligent investors like Keith, for example. We have the second episode is really more of a timely what's going on the markets this week, what's new, what's changed? Just so we can kind of keep people up to date with what's going on and if people are really looking to find out more about me and my services, you can go to Innovative Wealth and I've written all the blog posts there, but our company provides wealth management services for people, whether it's financial planning or portfolio management.
Keith Weinhold (00:43:52) - That's a lot of what we do. So like I said, I'm easy to find and I'm pretty easygoing guys. So if you're interested, you can find me there.
Speaker 3 (00:43:58) - Kirk Chisholm, Innovative Wealth. It's been great having you here. Thanks so much for coming on to the show.
Keith Weinhold (00:44:04) - Thanks for having me, Keith.
Speaker 3 (00:44:10) - Yeah. Well, Kirk Chisholm, he thinks that higher interest rates will linger longer. And he told us why. Now, Historically, it takes 3 to 5 quarters for interest rate hikes to hit the economy. Rate increases begin in March of 2022, but Americans are sitting on lots of cash. So many think that this recession that's perpetually just around the corner won't begin until at least next year. One benefit of a recession coming is that people will stop spreading undue concern.
Keith Weinhold (00:44:45) - About.
Speaker 3 (00:44:45) - A recession Coming Coming up here on the show, lots of great real estate investing strategy sessions forthcoming, not just big picture impacts like the direction of rents, home prices and interest rates, but also how to improve your operational efficiencies, like how to tamp down on higher property insurance premiums and more including what today's market for new build for plex's like investing in America's intermountain West and more.
Speaker 3 (00:45:14) - Until next week. I'm your host, Keith White. Don't quit your daydream.
Speaker 4 (00:45:21) - Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of Get Rich Education LLC exclusively.
Speaker 3 (00:45:50) - The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building. Get rich education.