Get Rich Education

Keith discusses strategies to avoid capital gains tax on primary residences, highlighting the potential impact of the "No Tax on Home Sales Act" proposed by Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene.  He explains the current tax exemption thresholds of $250,000 for singles and $500,000 for married couples, noting that 34% of homeowners could exceed the single filer threshold.  Keith also explores the rise of small investors in the housing market, representing 30% of purchases, and the potential of peer-to-peer storage and parking platforms to generate income from underutilized property.  And concludes with a critique of government dependency through Section 8 housing. Resources: You can see the video footage of that section 8 clip here. Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/565 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE’ to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai    Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, when you sell your primary residence, you need to pay capital gains tax. Learn how to avoid it, then how to increase your rental income with new peer to peer platforms. And finally, a perspective on capitalism and collectivism, with Section Eight housing today on get rich education.    Speaker 1  0:27   Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads of 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast or visit get rich education.com   Speaker 1  1:12   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  1:28   Welcome to GRE from st, Joseph, Missouri to st, Albans, Queens in New York City and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith weinholden. You and I are back together here for another wealth building week. This is get rich education, the Treasury and the Fed keep conspiring to print dollars like crazy, create currency, debasing every single dollar that you're currently holding onto. They are stealing your purchasing power, stealing the value of your work and your grit. It makes dollars pretty fake, since they can just be conjured out of thin air, therefore your job is to convert fake dollars into real assets. That's what you need to do, and this is a strategy that dominates. Like Sydney Sweeney, they print more money, causing inflation, so you have to invest in assets, but then they put a capital gains tax on those assets so that most people never escape inflation. But of course, as real estate investors, we have a strategy to avoid capital gains taxes. Well, I'll talk about that more later.   Keith Weinhold  2:46   I mentioned to you on an earlier episode that I recently attended my high school class reunion in Pennsylvania. It was just a few weeks ago, out in a rural area with a lodge and trees and grass and inflation came up in a conversation between me and a few classmates that was some time before we played cornhole in badminton. I talked about how I sort of enjoy spending money. One classmate replied that he is cheap. I don't really directly respond to something like that, but my preeminent thought when someone says that they're cheap is that life is too short to be cheap. There is a way to guarantee an improvement to your quality of life and your standard of living, and that is spending it can do exactly that invest Well, first, that's an antecedent, and then you can spend now, in the short run, when you're young, living below your means that can make some sense, until you've accumulated some Capital, sure, but when you're age 30 to 35 plus, like my classmates and I are Sheesh, you've got to have yourself figured out better by then than to still be cheap make your quality of life exceed your cost of living, because at least here on Earth, this is your last life ever the risk of too much delayed gratification is denied gratification. So be more frugal with your time than your money. And a lot of people point to external circumstances for their circumstances. Most people wait for the economy to change, not realizing that your mindset is the economy that you live in with each property that you own, you just created another small economy that you are in control of. You are at the top of it. Yeah, you created. Another small economy, the actors in it are you, your tenant, your lender, your property manager, your contractors, your utility companies and more, and you control it all. Most people think wealth is created from high salaries, and they go their entire life, therefore chasing the wrong thing, thinking that wealth is created by high salaries all along it squarely is not you get wealthy by owning things, and you certainly won't get wealthy by being cheap. Now, when it comes to owning things, the government taxes you when you profit on those things during your ownership period of them at sale time through the capital gains tax. And of course, we've talked about the specifics in how real estate investors can completely duck out of that with the 1031 tax deferred exchange. But what about homeowners, primary residence owners, they often have to pay it well. President Trump and Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene recently suggested either removing this tax or reforming it. Now this would require congressional approval, but most members of Congress own their home, so they could very well be in favor of it. And green introduced what is simply called the no tax on home sales act.    Keith Weinhold  6:29   Let's discuss how this can affect you, especially if you're a homeowner, or even if you don't own a home under the current law, which has been in place since 1997 on a primary residence, your first 250k of profit is sheltered from tax if you're single, the first 500k is sheltered if you're married. This is called the primary residence capital gains tax exemption or exclusion. Let's use an example. Say you bought a home years ago for 500k you're married and you sell the home for $1.3 million that's an 800k gain, alright? Since the first 500k is sheltered from capital gains tax, you would therefore have to pay the tax on just 300k on all but the lowest earners, your capital gains tax is 15 to 20% so this means if you sell this home on that 300k of profit, you'd have to pay a tax bill of between $45k and $60k and you might not be done there. You could also be subject to a net investment income tax of 3.8% on top of that, you cannot duck out of this because the 1031 exchange that's only for investment property, not primary residences, like we're talking about today, with home prices on the rise so much over the last five years, how many people exactly could be subject to this tax? 34% of homeowners could exceed the single filer threshold, and 10% could exceed the married filer threshold. Another way to say this is that only about 10% of US homes have more than 500k of equity in them, and it's the homeowners in high cost states that are most likely to be impacted here, New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, California and Hawaii, states like that. So therefore this tax it acts as a deterrent to people selling their homes. Now, what about, say, an elderly person with a really modest income that bought a home in Los Angeles for $30,000 back in 1970 and now it's worth $15 million well, they actually would not get caught in this net, because, like I said, for those with lower incomes, and it's below about 47k for single or 94k married, the capital gains tax rate is zero. For most of you listening again, it's going to be 15 to 20% one reason for the President and others wanting to cancel the capital gains tax on primary residences like this is to get the housing market moving again and get more homes available for sale on the market. Now these 250k and 500k thresholds, they have not moved since 1997 almost 30 years here, they haven't been adjusted for inflation and the median home sales price, it's jumped about 190% in that time it was 145k back in 1997 it's 435k today. So is. Home prices appreciate, more and more people will get caught up in paying the capital gains tax if your home value goes up by 10k That's another 10k that's subject to this 15 to 20% Capital Gains Tax, with that erstwhile possible net investment income tax on top of that. Well, what can you do about this growing capital gains tax obligation that you'll have that a lot of homeowners aren't even aware of? Well, even fewer realize that it is possible to reduce your home sales profit by adding capital improvements. That means making home renovations to the original purchase price. So therefore that home kitchen renovation that you were thinking about doing, well that might not be as costly as you think, if it reduces your capital gains tax at sale time to reset what we're talking about here, it's been proposed that the capital gains tax be removed when you sell your primary residence. Usually, we discuss tax on investment properties here, but this is a significant proposal, and whether it happens or not, it helps you understand the housing market and how to limit your personal tax hit now see if the tax were removed, it could be costly, because it would decrease the government's tax revenue, of course. So in my opinion, what I think is really going to happen here, a more likely course of action would be that instead of eliminating this tax they would just move up the threshold, say, from 250 and 500k up to 500k and $1 million another angle to keep in mind is that relaxing the tax that helps out wealthy people more than it helps the poor. Now, house flippers want to pay particular attention to what happens here, for instance, simply eliminating capital gains tax on house sales that could benefit those who buy and flip homes for profit. If policymakers want to benefit only homeowners, then they need to parse that out. Otherwise, this would be a huge boon to eliminating the capital gains tax on House flippers an absolute godsend, a windfall. In any case, relaxing the tax would mean that homeowners who move they would therefore retain more capital to reinvest in their next property, which you could use to outbid others. What does that do that would drive up home prices even more. I mean talking about the capital gains tax on primary residences, its proposal to be removed and what this would do to the housing market.    Keith Weinhold  12:50   Before I tell you about an interesting real estate investing niche and trend, let's pull back and look at the national housing market. The NAR recently let us know that national home prices hit yet another all time high. The median existing home price reached a record high of $435,300 and that is a 2% increase compared to last year. At this time, it's also the 24th consecutive month of year over year price increases. And you know, it's funny, I recently talked to an investor based in Phoenix that also does a little investing in Las Vegas. She thought that national home prices were falling because she sees a little price flattening in her home area, which is a little overbuilt. Well, prices are up as much as 10% in some areas of the Northeast and Midwest, because those areas are substantially underbuilt. I mean, for some perspective here just one metro area, New York City, one city with its population of over 20 million people, has twice as many people as both Arizona at 7 million and Nevada at just 3 million combined. One city twice as much as two entire states combined with all their cities. So it's remarkable how little perspective some people have see my geography degree holder perspective strikes once more again, national existing home prices are up 2% year over year, nominally, pretty modest growth, not that exciting. And who is doing the buying of these homes supporting and driving up prices. Well fewer and through of them are first time home buyers due to the well documented affordability strain. More and more of them are investors. Just last week, the Wall Street Journal reported that investors are responsible for fully 30% of the purchases of. Of both existing homes and new construction homes this year, and this is the highest share since property analytics firm kotality started tracking it 14 years ago. Investors are really buying today, and what kind of investors? Interestingly, it is people just like you. The Wall Street Journal went on to report that smaller investors who own fewer than 100 homes are doing most of the buying. That's a big change from when massive private equity firms like Blackstone and Starwood Capital Group dominated the market. So this 30% of single family home purchases being made by investors today. Smaller investors are 25% and larger ones only accounted for 5% so yeah, the little guys, people like you, they can take bigger risks because they don't have boards and shareholders to answer to, and plus builders with too much inventory are offering them discounts that were once reserved only for the bigger fish. They're being passed on now to smaller investors like you. That's exactly what the journal went on to say, much like we discussed on the show here last week, where builders are giving massive discounts.    Keith Weinhold  16:22   Well, you probably heard it said that Airbnb doesn't own any real estate. Uber doesn't own any cars. Facebook doesn't own any content, and Tiktok has no original videos. Yet, they all dominate their industries. Well, when you own the real estate, you can make the rules and leverage some of these connector platforms to help you rent out space that you own and increase your income. Do you own any property that's sitting vacant with nothing going on on the lot, perhaps even overgrown with weeds and shrubs. You can use an app like neighbor that helps you rent them out as parking spaces. Neighbor.com customers request your space, and you can approve it. They can park their cars on your space or RVs, boats, boats, trailers. This can be especially lucrative if you're a few miles from an airport, and then there are platforms that let you leverage them, sort of like the Airbnb of storage. Roughly one out of every nine Americans is renting a self storage unit, and that's not even counting all the people searching for a spot to park an extra car, boat or RV. At the same time, there are millions of garages, basements, attics, driveways and backyards sitting underutilized across the country now, platforms like store at my house, Pure Storage and park for share, that one is spelled Park, the number four and share, they're all stepping up to connect people who have extra space with the people that need it. And the result is that renters can typically save 50% or more compared to them using traditional storage companies they can rent from you, and it's often more convenient for renters, since the space they're renting that might be just around the corner instead of across town. Neighbor.com is one of the biggest players in this space, though, its founder, his name's Joseph Woodbury. He says you'd be amazed at what people will pay to store something if the location is good and the price is right, they have had a tiny three foot by five foot closet in Manhattan that rented out in a snap, almost instantly in Woodbury. He even uses the platform himself, leasing part of his own driveway to someone with a camper. Now, you probably want to check with your HOA before you do something like that. But like Airbnb neighbor, they earn money by taking a cut of the host's revenue. But unlike Airbnb neighbor, hosts average just 16 minutes per month managing their listings now Woodbury, the neighbor.com owner, he calls it the most efficient, least time intensive form of passive income in America. And the peer to peer storage trend, that's become a great entry point for new investors, especially those that aren't ready to buy a full property. But it's also catching the eye of experience real estate investors who want to squeeze more cash flow out of the land that you already own. Some are turning unused sheds into rentable storage units. Others are converting open acreage into long term parking. I know someone that's hosting campers and. RVs on his 10 acres in Florida, and he expects to earn about $100,000 this year alone from that land. And they say it's mostly hands off. And now, whenever he buys he looks for acreage plus a home so that he can generate multiple income streams from one property. Well, can this peer storage and parking shake up the $500 billion self storage and parking industry the same way that Airbnb rattled the hotel world? Some think the potential is huge, with national occupancy rates for storage centers hovering around 93% there really is not any sign that the market is oversupplied. In fact, even public storage, that's the company name, public storage, they are the country's largest self storage space operator, even they use neighbor to help lease out their leftover inventory, and so do some REITs that have extra space at their office, retail or apartment properties. And as far as the types of listings, people are getting creative on these platforms. They're monetizing everything from empty barns to church parking lots. Think about how much of the week church parking lots sit vacant to vacant strip mall storefronts, and they're using that as parking so more and more people are realizing that there's hidden value in the real estate that they already own, and you can too. If you own the real estate, you make the rules. So check out those four platforms that I mentioned, if you think it can benefit you to increase the income at your properties in this growing peer to peer storage and parking industry. It was around 2010 when Airbnb really started to take off and really take market share away from hotels, and today, these platforms like neighbor store at my house, peer storage and park for share, are taking market share away from traditional, centralized self storage spaces to review what you've learned so far today, if you're going to Live life full time, you can't be perpetually cheap. Be aware of the primary residence capital gains tax and its elimination proposal. Small investor interest is growing now, making up fully 30% of today's home purchases, and grow your income with Pure Storage and parking platforms coming up next, a viral audio clip that borders on the unbelievable and gives you a new perspective on capitalism, collectivism and Section Eight housing, you'll be flabbergasted. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to Episode 565, of get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  23:00   the same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056,they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your pre qual and even chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. While it's on your mind, start at Ridge lendinggroup.com. That's Ridge lendinggroup.com.    Keith Weinhold  23:32   You know what's crazy? Your bank is getting rich off of you. The average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I started putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns, and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading, it's pretty low risk because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. You can invest as little as 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back. No weird lockups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds just sitting there doing nothing, check it out. Text family 266, 866, to learn about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund again. Text family to 66866.   Kathy Fettke  24:42   you this is the real wealth network's Kathy betke, and you are listening to the always valuable get rich education with Keith Weinhold.   Keith Weinhold  25:00   Keith, you are back inside one of America's longest running and most listened to real estate investing shows. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, and this is get rich education, the voice of real estate investing. Since 2014 wealthy people's money either starts out or ends up in real estate, we tell you why and show you how. I've got a clip to share with you that gets a little wild. We usually share what I suppose is more cerebral content here, but some real perspective can be gleaned from listening to this. This kid wants to work his mom says, No, you can't, because she'd lose her section eight housing benefit. And apparently, free housing is more valuable than his future. This is about one minute in length,   Unknown Speaker  25:52   not getting no job. If you go get a job, they're going to take my section eight, then you won't be able to get no section eight. You're not going to get no job. They're gonna count your income against my section eight and my link card. You're not working, no. So I don't care what you gotta say. I don't care how you feel. You're not working, you're not going to get a job, you you're not going to school, you're not doing none of that like Ma. I'm saying how I'm supposed to be successful in life, huh? So you basically telling me I gotta I gotta be broke to be successful. I got to be broke so I can get section eight. Government can help you. So the government can help me. So you telling me I can't work, no job, bro. Like, that's like, all my friends got jobs and live and nice houses. So you telling me I got the I got to go through the same thing you went through if you have a house, any of that, they're going to take my section eight. How? What they be like,no, they will look at that and be like, he's doing something. And give me a bigger house. Ma, that's what you told me. I can get off your section eight and apply for my own section eight. Okay, but if you do that, you're gonna have to go the hard way. It's gonna take a long so what? That's what I'm saying. Get on Section Eight. Find you a nice apartment, go get you a link card. You will be fine. You don't have to sit up and work. You don't have to work, no job, if the government is here to help us.   Keith Weinhold  27:11   Gosh, this mom won't let her son work, or else she'll lose their government section eight housing benefit, where taxpayers pay for most of their housing. And by the way, is this real? Is this a rage bait skit? I can't quite tell, but it surfaces some interesting questions. For sure, it is true that section eight housing voucher recipients like her can lose their benefits if the household earns more and exceeds a certain threshold. Gosh, here's the youth that wants to do something and maybe be better and have more than his parents. You should want what's best for your child? Some parents have to beg their children to get a job. This kid is willing to go out and see what he's capable of doing. This eaglet is looking to leave the nest, and you're clipping his wings, and yes, you the listener, are the one paying for their housing. There's no such thing as a free government program, because taxpayers like you and I fund the government section eight housing is therefore tax payer funded at one point. The mom says the government is here to help us. Yeah, this woman is making you poorer. This is where the taxes that get knocked out of your paycheck are going. You're working at a job, spending less time with the people you love, and maybe doing fewer of the activities you love so that she can perpetuate a culture of laziness and government dependency. Another successful entrepreneur or employee is not making you poorer, this woman is making you poorer. Thomas Sowell said it best. He is an author and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. He's got a lot of brilliant thoughts. Soul famously said, I have never understood why it is greed to want to keep the money you have earned, but not greed to want to take somebody else's money. That's Thomas Sowell. Now it's possible that this woman couldn't get a job that would pay so much more than the section eight income ceiling that it would be worth her getting one. She said there that she doesn't have a job at all. Maybe she has a disability, but there's a video of this. You can see the video. She doesn't appear to be disabled, but the appalling part is that she's discouraging her son from working now. Understand some section eight tenants do work full time jobs, but they're almost certainly going to be really low paying like, say, washing dishes for a restaurant. Section Eight is supposed to be a temporary program. It's supposed to be helpful, not a hindrance. It is a federal program. It's administered by HUD, and it pays the rent money for low income people, allowing them to rent housing out in the private open market. The program has high demand and some long, long waiting lists. They can be years long, even a decade long, waiting list for Section Eight housing some housing authorities even close their wait lists entirely due to the length the overwhelming demand and understand as well, veterans and the elderly are probably on a wait list, waiting for substantially younger people like her to get off the program to qualify for Section Eight, most families need an income below 50% of the area's median income, and your criminal background check has got to be clear, so you don't need to pass some high bar to get into the program. Now, in reality, a large share of the benefit recipients have an income that's under 30% of an area's median and how much of your rent does section eight pay? Participants typically pay a portion of their monthly income toward rent, usually around 30% they pay around 30% where section eight pays 70% I once run into a section eight tenant, and the tenant paid closer to 20% while the program paid 80% for you. And by the way, landlords don't have to accept section eight tenants. It is voluntary, and it pays landlords about the market rate in hot housing markets with fast rising rents. Well, you probably don't want to accept section eight because a regular, unsubsidized tenant is often going to pay you more in a slow rental market, Section Eight is better for landlords. Now, some landlords like section eight because it is guaranteed rent income, but some don't like it because they say they get low quality tenants. Well, foreign landlord can rent to a section eight tenant, a person called a case manager inspects the unit, and I think I shared with you before that, the first one that inspected mine, they wrote me up because they said that one of my Windows didn't open all the way. I fixed it, and the tenant stayed two years before they moved. But the average duration of time that a tenant spends in the program is six to nine years. It is supposed to be a short term bridge, but often becomes a long term subsidy people get dependent on the handout. HUD tells us that only one in seven families leave the program due to increased income, and there is a strong stigma around section eight housing, for sure. Who knows? To shake the stigma, maybe they will just change the name of the program. That happens sometimes, sort of like how they changed the name of the food stamps program to snap. And by the way, the link card that she mentioned in the video that is for food assistance. That's actually the name of the snap card in the state of Illinois. Oh, dear God bless America, training her kids to live off the government. I almost feel trashy after thinking about this. I'm probably going to go shower next now. Should the minimum wage be high enough that everyone can afford at least a one bedroom apartment, and therefore people wouldn't need section eight? Well, the federal minimum wage is $7.25 it's been stuck there since 2009 the economic commentator Peter Schiff, who I had lunch with a couple times last month, he and his wife Peter, makes the case that there should be no minimum wage at all. That is government intervention in the free market. If you make the minimum wage too high, people get laid off and people get replaced by robots. That's just what's really happened in practice, if a person can only make the minimum wage, they need to get better, and they need to skill up, is what Peter contends. Now, when I graduated college, I would have thought that premise sounded ridiculous. No minimum wage. But the more I think about it and the more I experience life, it does begin to make more sense. The fresh post collegiate me would have said that, ah, a working human being, they deserve the dignity of a minimum wage. That's livable, but some time and perspective has me saying that you are the one that brings dignity to your work, your earning potential and your life. It's not up to someone else to provide you with dignity. You don't lean on the government for your dignity. Learn more, be better, skill up. You'll be dignified, and you're going to earn multiples more than minimum wage. When it comes to the section eight, mom, everyone would like to live at the expense of the state, but few realize that the state lives at the expense of everyone else. If you'd like to see the video footage of that section eight clip that I played and more of my commentary on it. It's pretty interesting that should be available on our YouTube channel now. The channel name is get rich education. What else would it be for the production team here at GRE? That's our sound engineer, Vedran Dzampo , who has edited every single GRE episode since 2014,  QC and show notes. Brenda Almendadadas, video lead, Binaya Gyawali video strategy lead, Talha Mughal, video editor, Sorosa KC and producer me, we'll run it back next week for you. If you'd like the show, please tell a friend about it. I'd really appreciate you sharing it until then, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.    36:29   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice if the means of guests are their own information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  36:53   You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info, oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access, and it's got paywalls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers, it's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read. And when you start the letter, you also get my one hour fast real estate. Video, course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream. Letter, it wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text gre 266, 866. While it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text, gre 266, 866,   Keith Weinhold  38:08   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com.  

Keith discusses the impact of inflation and interest rates on real estate investing, emphasizing passive income strategies.  He highlights the Florida housing market, noting a 26% increase in listings post-pandemic.  Investor and Florida homebuilder, Jim, joins this episode to explain the overbuilding in the emotional market versus the underbuilt workforce housing.  His company focuses on new construction in areas like Ocala, offering 40-year loans with 5.25% fixed rates, and boasting an average tenancy duration of over three years. They also provide two years of free property management and a 10-year builder warranty. Resources: Schedule a free strategy session with a GRE Investment Coach to evaluate the opportunity at GREinvestmentcoach.com Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/564 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE’ to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai    Keith Weinhold  0:01   welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, what control do you have over inflation and interest rates? Then, with the Florida housing oversupply and resultant attrition and price levels, wouldn't it be interesting to talk to a prominent Florida homebuilder? That's just what we do today on get rich education.   Speaker 1  0:27   Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads in 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com   Speaker 2  1:12   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  1:28   Welcome to GRE from coral, Illinois to Cape Coral, Florida and across 180 nations worldwide. I'm Keith weinholden. You are inside for another wealth building week. This is get rich education, the voice of real estate investing since 2014 with inflation on the upswing and is currently approaching 3% again, the formula is small. Down payment. Bank buys you the house. Tenants pay down the loan. Property Manager handles nearly everything. You collect cash every month. Inflation builds you massive wealth, and that's real estate, all right. And no one really knows what's going to happen with inflation and interest rates, those two positively correlated indicators, but at times we have an illustrious guest that will make a prediction. And GRE episode 224, from January of 2019 has been getting some attention lately. That's back when interest rates of all types were really low, and when I interviewed legendary investor Jim Rogers in Singapore, listen in to what he told you, and I on that episode, then   Speaker 3  2:49   you ask me, we're now headed up again, and interest rates are going to go go much, much, much higher over the next few decades, and it's going to ruin a lot of people. I hope none of your listeners get ruined. I hope I don't get ruined, but rising interest rates are here for a long time. Keith, be worried. Be careful.   Keith Weinhold  3:08   Yeah, some real Jim Rogers prescience there in Episode 224 he has seen some cycles. Now as investors, we've got regional phenomena and national phenomenon mortgage rates. They're a national one, because more or less, whenever you finance property anywhere in the nation, your rate is going to be the same nationwide. Perhaps you feel then like you don't have any control over your mortgage rate. Well, I've got two points to that. First, understand that today, mortgage spreads are almost back to normal. Now, what does that mean? Mortgage spreads from listening to the show, you probably know that the mortgage rate you pay is dictated more on the level of bond yields than it is the Fed funds rate that your own Powell controls. Well, 30 year mortgage rates are historically almost 2% above the bond yield, meaning they're 2% above the yield on the 10 year T note, okay, that's the bond yield. The spread was recently above 3% now it is down to about two and a half. To be clear, mortgage rates are now just about two and a half percent above bond yields in this narrowing, that means there's more investor confidence in the mortgage market, and that suggests that lenders are willing to offer loans at competitive rates without succumbing to volatility. So lenders are less concerned about the risk of you quickly refinancing out of the loan that they just worked to make for you, the translation is that this opens the door to make it easier for mortgage rates to fall to 6% and they've been nearly seven for a while. Though I don't predict rates. I'm speaking about probabilities here. Now some people want to lock up property before rates fall, because when rates fall, many think home prices will surge because more people can afford property than higher demand. And I think we all know that the conventional wisdom is to lock in your price now and then if rates fall, you refinance. Conversely, if rates go higher, well then you'll be glad you bought today when rates were lower. But today we're talking about how you can really control the mortgage rate you pay when you work with a builder that won't only see that your mortgage rate gets bought down, they'll ensure that they are the ones paying for the pie down, not you. That's key, as we talked to a home builder in Florida today, a state that makes headlines for being overbuilt, it's a case study in how a market gets to an overbuilt condition, or does it really get overbuilt? It depends on this segment of the real estate market that you're focused on as an investor, as you'll see today, let's meet this week's guest.    Keith Weinhold  6:05   I'd like to welcome Jim onto the show today. He's one of the founding partners of a prominent Florida home builder. They built over 9000 residences, and they have 120 plus full time employees, and it's been such an interesting time in Florida home building and the real estate market, so that's why we're chatting today. Hey Jim, welcome onto the show. Keith, great to be back. Thanks for having me. Let's talk about the problem statewide. Florida has about 26% more listings, more available housing inventory, as compared to pre pandemic levels. That's created some problems, some price attrition. Talk about, why did Florida get over built? Or are they not truly overbuilt when we segment that by product type.   Jim Sheils  7:02   Well, like you said, Keith, product type is really important to decipher here, because it does help dissect the problem a little more clearly. There's a lot of different markets happening, but two of the main things that I've seen that have caused the softening of certain segments of the market is one insurance if you are buying a 1957 home in southwest Florida, a few blocks from the beach, it is possible that your insurance has gone up four to five times. Yeah, the annual thing. So that is going to really start to shake people who own those properties. They're going to feel a little triggered to sell, and it's going to be more difficult to sell, because if you have an agent go and show that property and they ask for a good faith estimate from a lender, and they say, Well, what's your current insurance? That can really scare people. So that type of property normally properties older before 2004 when the rules changed, with higher insurance, that can change it. The second thing is, the emotional market always seems to take a hit, Keith, and I've heard you talk about this before. Now, the emotional market that I talk about is we have our median value in any of the real estate markets, right? And you go about 25% above the median, maybe 30% above the median values. That's what I call the emotional market. These are the really nice houses that are fun to visit. You know, nice to stay in, nice to live in, but they are emotional. This is an emotional market. The cash flow numbers have never worked. They're not on the ultra high end that those people normally own cash and they don't really care the fluctuation. It's that level above the median where I see the emotional market really take the hit, because when the emotion comes out, while the people it's harder to sell to find the buyers, especially with the rates jumping the way that they have over the last two years, there's not the ability to sit back and say, Well, you know what, Keith, I'm just going to hold this and rent it, because their negative position, their negative cash flow every month, begins to sink them quickly, and so that's where you see that pressure downward on that emotional market. If that makes any sense.   Keith Weinhold  9:06   did Florida really get ahead of itself with the increase in pandemic migration? Was there more building because they projected that high migration rate to continue, and it just didn't. Is that why areas of Florida are overbuilt.   Jim Sheils  9:22   What I believe happened was the migration was there, Keith, but again, you have to look at the sectors of the market. Now, when you're looking at a large national home builder, their goal is to sell the property with the greatest profit spread. It's just that simple, and those are the properties when times are good and times are hot, this emotional market, you know, 20, 30% above the median value for an area that's a very easy time to promote and to sell those types of properties and make the best spread for them. And so, yes, in that area, they got ahead of themselves, because it was easy to market to, easy to promote to. And again. In. Some people untrained investors, or people just emotional and saying, Well, I'm gonna have a second home in Florida, and I'll get there more often than I think I will. That causes that issue now, but going to the lower segment, like the workforce housing, like you and I have talked about, well, that has been underprepared for the migration and affordability. That is my word of the year, affordability, the affordable housing, the workforce housing. When you look at the stats, I think it was last year we found the stat that for every 25 workforce housing, new construction workforce housing, there's 100 renters. And so the workforce housing has been underdeveloped, and why? You know, we're a niche builder. It's very rare for a builder like us to focus on workforce housing. That's not the focus of many of the larger builders. They're on that more emotional market. So that's where we focus. But with builders like us focusing on that, no one else that part of the market, Keith has been under supplied, actually in the last few years, because the net migration didn't need those emotional houses. They needed the workforce housing.   Keith Weinhold  11:05   This is a great distinction. We can look at a stat like there's 26% more available housing inventory in Florida statewide than there was pre pandemic, but you've got to parse that by product type, workforce housing, which you specialize in, including build to rent, housing has not been oversupplied, not nearly to that same extent. It could even be undersupplied, depending on where you're at. These are the properties that make the best long term income properties. I hope you the listener caught it there. Jim gave an important date. 2004 is a key year when there were changes to building codes, which results in what your insurance premiums are going to be. Tell us more about that.    Jim Sheils  11:50   Yeah, 2004 right through Punta Gorda, Florida, where we build now. There was Hurricane Charlie came through. My dad's cousin, I have actually lived there at the time. I mean, that place got decimated. Keith, it got absolutely decimated, and the government called timeout. They said, timeout. Okay, we got to stop this. New rules. Moving forward, we're going to change the structural design requirements. We're going to change the elevation requirements. This is the big one. So you know, back in the day, you and I, if we were back in 1962 in Fort Myers, Florida, we could build a house at two feet or three feet above sea level. Those days are gone. If you're going to build a property like going back to Punta Gordon, now today, you have to build it 13 to 14 feet above sea level. So that means builders like us got to bring in a lot of dirt, and we grumble and complain about it until a storm goes through and we have no flooding on any of our properties. But that was a requirement, then stronger fasteners and structural design, because they just didn't want that risk or this type of damage. And it's been interesting, because they've been two hurricanes, you know, since 2004 that have really gone right over the eye. The main power of the storm has gone through. Punta Gorda. I've actually showed this on some videos that we've done on YouTube, like the flyover the next day, and you would think, Oh, well, maybe there was like a strong wind that went through, because there's palm fronds down and some fencing, but the houses are intact, and it's because things had to be rebuilt to today's standards. So I always tell people, hey, you know, we'd love to help you get a house, but if you're just going down there to find a house, I would highly recommend you look at the elevation and look if your house was built before the year 2004 or after, because that is really when things started to change. Not that a house earlier might not have what you're looking for, but elevation is such a key component when you're near coastal areas in Florida, the elevation of your home.   Keith Weinhold  13:41   Is it that simple? Pre 2004 you're likely to pay substantially higher insurance premiums on your Florida property than you are if the build year was 2004 or later.   Jim Sheils  13:52   It's a main component, Keith, another component will be to that is, you know, how close are you to the beach? If you're within, you know, a half a mile of the beach that can have an on lower ground of an older property, those combinations for risk analysis for an insurance company will come up not in your favor, and so you have to put that into account too. Again, the further you move inland, especially the further you move north, and the further you move inland in Florida, the insurance premiums go down because the risk assessment of the last 100 Years of hurricanes has been so much dramatically lower of actually causing issue.   Keith Weinhold  14:29   We'll talk about the Florida areas that you build in later. But first, let's just pull back. Talk about statewide. How bad is it? How bad is it with the overbuilt condition in some segments of the residential market, and how that's led to price attrition, a lack of rent growth or rental occupancy rates that are hurt potentially. Can you speak to that? How bad is it now,   Jim Sheils  14:54   again, going to the segment of the emotional market, so we're talking 20 to 30% above the median. In price in an area that's going to be bad, that's where you're going to have to have downward pressure. You're going to have to your property may have appreciated Well, if you did in 2020, but you're not selling a peak pricing. You're going to have to come off your numbers a good amount, because there's not as many buyers. And also, you got to remember, coupled with that pricing coming down, it's also the interest rates we got pretty spoiled. You know, three and a half percent interest rates, two and a half percent interest rates for some homeowners, that's just not the norm now. So when you're going off those numbers, the affordability, the ability to make that payment, has really been affected. So that emotional market, I think we're going to see a continued softening in that and again, in that emotional market too. To what I saw was, and I own some short term rentals, and I like short term rentals, but what we saw there was a rush, like, almost like a California gold rush, here in Florida, to people coming in and buying what they consider a short term rental, which was not really desirable for short term rent. It could get a few people here and there, but they would buy it, this emotional market, and then the numbers wouldn't work out. Now that, as well, is starting to put pressure on people saying, Oh, I'm losing so much money every month. Let's just sell and again, that emotional market, that area, 20, 25% 30% above median value. That's where we're seeing that. So you're going to see some pressure downward of that, I'd say at least another 10% because there's already been a dip in some areas 15 to 20% so there has been a correction in those and I think we'll continue to see that until some of this stabilizes.    Keith Weinhold  16:32   Talk to us about how the rental segment's doing, statewide   Jim Sheils  16:36   rental, we saw a stagnation for about a year and a half to two years, and just in the last six months, we've seen an increase in some of our main markets here. Again, when I say they main markets here, I'm always speaking, because that's what we stick to, the workforce housing. So we've seen workforce housing some of our main central Florida markets and some of our Northeast markets go up another 50 to $100 which was great, because it was stagnant for about two years. About two years. And then you'll see a continued dip of probably, you know, 10 to 15% on some of that emotional market rentals, because now there's a rush to try to rent them, and again, there's not as much of a demand for that segment of the market.    Keith Weinhold  17:17   We're talking with a prominent Florida home builder about Florida's temporarily overbuilt residential housing type. We've already learned that 2004 is a key year for what your insurance rates are likely going to be. We've also learned about how you need to segment these residential housing markets between workforce housing and the emotional side of the market. You're listening to get rich education more when we come back on Florida real estate, I'm your host, Keith Weinhold.   Keith Weinhold  17:46   the same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your pre qual and even chat with President Chaley Ridge personally while it's on your mind, start at Ridge lendinggroup.com that's Ridge lendinggroup.com.    Keith Weinhold  18:18   You know what's crazy, your bank is getting rich off of you, the average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I started putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns, and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading. It's pretty low risk because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. You can invest as little is 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back. No weird lockups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds just sitting there doing nothing, check it out. Text family tp 66866, to learn about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund, again. Text family to 66866,   Kristen Tate  19:29   this is author Kristen Tate. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream. You   Keith Weinhold  19:46   welcome back to get rich education. Jim is with us, a prominent Florida home builder, and it's so interesting to talk to a home builder today because you think a Florida is overbuilding Ground Zero, even though, paradoxically. Nationally, we're still in a somewhat under built condition, where there's somewhat of a lack of available housing supply. Now, back on our April 28 show, exactly three months ago today, which I know that you listened to Jim, that show was titled, is Florida real estate doomed? And the short answer is no and I gave a number of reasons for that. You don't want to catch a falling knife as an investor. One prominent reason that Florida real estate is not doomed, and you're not catching a falling knife, and this is so close to being 100% predictable, is the fact that the growth is going to be there. It always has been in Florida, the in migration has been remarkable. If you go back and look at every census over about the last 200 years, since 1830 Florida has grown substantially every single census, oftentimes and usually at a rate greater than the national average. So in migration is almost certainly going to continue, which, over the long term, will put upward pressure on prices, upward pressure on rents, and help with rental occupancy as well. When you have a vacancy, that next incoming tenant is going to be there, I think that's about as close to predictable as it can possibly get. So talk to us more about the dynamics in Florida and the in migration.   Jim Sheils  21:26   It's funny, Keith, last year the net migration, and you can check through all the stats out there. The net migration number for Florida, that means more people, obviously coming in than leaving, and the surplus was just about 470,000 so we still have a growth of 470,000 and people have set up. Florida. Net migration is over. And I'm going, well, it was pretty superb during the pandemic, but to say it's over when it's about a half million up from last year, I think would be a misconception for at the very least. So we feel the people are still coming, and we're asking, what kind of housing do they need? Do they need that higher end, emotional market housing? Not what we're seeing, what they're needing is affordability. They're going to areas where there's still great job source, there's still great affordability, and that's what we look for. Where can we still build a new construction, single family home for under $300,000 and have great job source close by. That's one of the things that we look for. Also, where is there that under supply of that workforce housing? There are very key markets in Florida that you know about that we build in. We're saying, yeah, there's lots of stuff on the market up there, but there is no supply of this workforce housing. We're going to keep building. And as you know, we have not stopped building the last two years, when a lot of people have run for the sidelines because they weren't in our sector of the market.   Keith Weinhold  22:48   Of course, you're very strategic about where you build geographically. Talk to us about where those places are   Jim Sheils  22:54   right now. Keith, my pick of the year has been the greater Ocala region, and I know we've been working with a lot of GRE folks in that region. Couple of reasons why, still had the strongest migration of any area in the US. And you can look that up. U haul had it as number one destination place. This was when I say greater Ocala. I look at Ocala, citrus springs, Inverness, that central Florida area. You know, still in some of those markets, Keith, we're building homes for 200 60s, 270,000 that's new construction, and enabled to get great rent and great financing, which no we'll talk about. And the job source is remarkable right now. In fact, interesting statistic, Keith, I know you watch this closely. In Ocala, the median price of a home is just around 300,000 main Ocala, you can get cheaper when you go out to citrus springs and Inverness, down to the 260s 270s but the median family income is 72,000 and when you look at that, that is a very good affordability index. That's very high average family income compared to a low median price, and that's bringing in more jobs. That's bringing in more security. Couple that with Central Florida being one of the lowest hurricane risk zones in the state. It's the highest ground. It's the furthest inland, in fact, to ensure a single family home on average in that area, about $65 a month for full coverage, wow, for a duplex, $105 a month, full coverage. And that's the advantage of new construction buying in the right areas or low hurricane risk zone and great job source coming in. So my favorite market right now, Keith, is that Central Florida, Ocala, citrus springs, Inverness, that's where we're building. Oh, that's also when people say it's overbuilt. Well, no, because we know that we're actually building for a few of the big institutions that have way bigger analysis departments than we do, and they're seeing that it's so behind on housing that people are finally going in. It was kind of an overlooked market all through the pandemic for the most part, and now it's finally getting people's attention.   Keith Weinhold  24:58   A couple months ago. On the show, I shared how a close friend purchased a new build Ocala duplex through you, the rents he got were even a little higher than you projected, and his insurance premium is $694 again, this is for a duplex. I forget. I think the purchase price was 400 to 420k on this new build property.   Jim Sheils  25:23   Yeah. And it's funny when people, we have lots of investors coming from all over, but I was in California's, know, for years. And when people hear a quote like that, like that, you just said 650, $6 they think that's for the month. And I say, No, no, no, that's for the year. And again, that's the misconception now, but you could pick up and you could go to a coastal area again, like I said in a 1952 duplex built at two feet above sea level that's had hurricane issues before, and your insurance could be $8,000 a year. Yeah, that's where you have to really shop before you actually pull the trigger on property. What are the taxes? What are the insurance? I mean, this is going back to core play, core strategy, but it's something you really have to look at   Keith Weinhold  26:07   talk to us about the product types that you're offering, all new build, and what percent of single family, duplexes and larger   Jim Sheils  26:15   the main majority of what we're building right now is single family and duplex. The numbers work great. They're in high demand. You know, duplexes are a pretty interesting product, Keith, because you can put them in single family home neighborhoods, and, you know, families that couldn't normally rent, afford to rent a full house there, can avoid an apartment building, still feel like they have their own home and afford to be in that neighborhood. So I'd say 80% of what we're doing is a combination of single family home and duplexes, and then, as you know, we still are building some of our quads, our four unit buildings in some areas of northeast Florida, like Jacksonville,   Keith Weinhold  26:50   expenses have obviously been on the mind of real estate investors. More so since interest rates doubled to tripled in 2022 you're selling to investors. Investors need the numbers to work. Since they're not in the emotional market, we're in the market where we're looking at numbers, and that biggest expense, of course, is your mortgage principal and interest. So you found a way to deal with high insurance premiums, because on most or all of your properties that you sell to investors, those insurance premiums are excessively low. Talk to us about what you've done with the mortgage rates, for investors   Jim Sheils  27:27   it's such an important point here, Keith, I remember hearing a warren buffett thing years ago saying, Well, I'm not really in the real estate and that, but for me, when I look at it, a house is worth what it can rent for. And that always stuck with me being Warren Buffett, even though he's not heavily invested in real estate like we are. But for get his sage advice on that that's always stuck with me. So when you're getting a property, yes, you want to have fair price, but the terms around it that actually produce the cash flow, or what's the condition of the property, where is it? But then the other fundamental numbers, what is your insurance? What are your taxes? And then the final big thing is, if you're leveraging, which I encourage, what's your mortgage? And so as you know, we're probably as obsessed with financing as we are with building right, cuz that's our model. We gotta build right. We gotta finance right. So we're always looking for the most advantageous programs where we can team up with banks. They'll allow us to pay an abnormal amount of points, which means discount points that we will pay, not the buyer, we will pay for our buyers to get the rate the lowest and most advantageous. We don't like short term teaser loans, where your rate's going to adjust in 18 months or two years. We saw a lot of people get in trouble with that, at least I did back in the Oh 708, days. So we want long term financing and low interest that's going to produce a cash flow, even though it's new construction from day one. And so right now, our newest program, as you and I have been talking about very excited, is actually a 40 year loan. It's a 40 year loan. We're paying the rate down. Right now we're at five and a quarter. A few weeks ago is at 4.75 so it does fluctuate back and forth. But here's what's exciting, Keith, you're leveraging into a new construction property that has longevity and durability. The first 10 years. Interest only the next 30 years is a 30 year AM, 30 year fixed at five and a quarter. So when you start to do the numbers and go through it, we're almost doubling cash flow on our single family homes and duplexes for people in areas like Ocala, and that makes such a difference to getting them off on the right foot.    Keith Weinhold  29:32   This is a key distinction. Rather than focusing on slashing the price and your properties are already affordable, you buy down that rate by purchasing discount points to buy down that mortgage rate for the investor at the terms that you just described. Builders often like this more. They don't want to cut their prices, because that can become a comparable and lead to a downgrade in values. And investors actually like it more as well, because rather than discounting the price. A little more. It helps the investor more. When you buy down that rate and you do it for them, they are not the ones participating in the rate. Buy down you, the investor. You're paying the closing costs like origination fee and title insurance and things like that. Okay with those 40 year loan terms like you laid out fixed interest only for the first 10 years, and then after 10 years, it transfers to a 30 year fixed, amortizing loan, still with that same rate locked in. Is that right?   Jim Sheils  30:29   That's correct. So there's no sometimes people think, oh, then it's going to trigger upwards several percent. It stays the same the whole 40 year term. We just go from interest only to principal and interest and again, you know, because you talk about the leverage all the time, the most important time to really solidify the strength of an investment and get cash flow going. The most pivotal time is in those first few years. Yeah, we feel we're really giving people that strong foundation to get a cash flowing right off the bat and be able to look long term. The great thing about new construction is people say, Could you hold it that long? I said, I'm planning to with some of my new constructions. Hopefully I'll be a little old man or my children will own them. But you can look out that far and know that you're jumping your cash flow in those initial years when a lot of people may be falling backwards. In fact, when we talked about those emotional markets where people bought higher end properties because they looked good and they felt good to walk through, and then all of a sudden they're bleeding month in, month out for a year, two years, three years. That's when they're ready to wave the white flag. We find with our model, with getting that rate really low, we're accentuating the cash flow forward those first few years, Keith, so they're ready to keep going after a few years, instead of raise the white flag.   Keith Weinhold  31:41   Yeah, when we think about how you're helping investors here while moving product at the same time, the number of problems that are solved are remarkable because you're solving the higher mortgage rate problem by buying down the rates. You've got a low rate, you've got a low insurance premium, you as the investor are almost certainly going to have low maintenance and repair costs since it's new build. And what else do you do when it's new build? The tenant, when they move in, they're the first person that's ever lived in that property, which probably means they're going to have a longer tenancy duration, because it's hard to move up and move into something better than the product you're offering, especially with low affordability for first time homebuyers. In fact, tell us about your average tenancy duration   Jim Sheils  32:21   yeah. So as you know, Keith, I did a ton of fixer uppers. First 15 years of my career, I wore that rehab badge on my shoulder with pride. I loved rehab and old houses. And look, that's great. That's a great way to get going. But I transitioned into new construction a decade ago, and so we've been able to do a lot of comparisons. And you know, back in the day, when I was fixing up lots of properties and renting them out, the older properties, my average tenant would stay about 13 months. It was a little over a year, get them for a year, and then there was move. But that was the average 13 months. Looking back now, and we've been doing this almost a decade. When you look at our new construction model, that went from an average of about 13 months to just over three years with our new construction product. So as you know, if all of a sudden we're pushing back that first move out from a year or 13 months to over three years, that's a tremendous way again to get the right footing and directional on your investment. So that was a really pleasant surprise. I did not expect going to new construction, but jumping from a year to three years has been a nice surprise.   Keith Weinhold  33:24   This brings to mind for you as a passive investor, it's sort of analogous to buying an existing business or starting a new one from scratch yourself, whether it's a rental car company or a tomato farm. You know, a lot of people wouldn't think about getting into business, they think about buying their own business, starting it from scratch, and that's really difficult to do when you're an investor. This way, you're not doing a fix and flip yourself, which is analogous to starting your own business from scratch. You get to buy someone's existing business. You're buying an existing property, a new build one, in this case, and that way you can look at all the financials already and have it be done for you in that all done for you sort of way, just like it is here. Well, Jim, do you have any last thoughts about the Florida real estate market today, especially with the lucrative product type that you're offering to investors?    Jim Sheils  34:16   I would just remind people do your homework, because there's apples and there's oranges, and you gotta compare the two, and you have to do the homework on which segment of the market is healthy and which one is not. I wouldn't recommend you invest in the unhealthy segment of the market, but look where the fundamentals are working. And go back to that term, a house is worth what it can rent for. And if you can look at that, and also couple with stability of new construction, this is where we've seen ourselves make the most money most success with the least amount of time for our investors. So I highly encourage that recipe for anyone out there.   Keith Weinhold  34:53   In addition to being a builder, Jim's company also holds properties under management. For investors, just like you, they offer that for you. For the long term, they have over 1000 current investors, many of them are GRE listeners. You can learn more about the provider at GRE marketplace under Florida statewide, but to get a free strategy session about the latest in what they have for available inventory, and also to compare this provider to other providers, the highest flex, the highest ROI move that you can make yourself as the listener for your due diligence is to connect with a GRE investment coach. It's free at GRE investment coach.com, oh, it's been valuable. Jim, thanks for coming onto the show.   Jim Sheils  35:38   Thanks for having me. Keith.   Keith Weinhold  35:46   Oh, yeah, hearing it straight from a builder today. And you know, a lot of builders create these nice looking, emotional Type homes, the same ones that appeal to owner occupants. They build those higher end homes because they create more builder profit. Well, that's the segment that has become overbuilt today, this build to rent provider we're talking about here is dealing with a public that reads these articles about the Florida slowdown, though things are still good in this workforce housing market. Well, because the public reads headlines, this builder still has to step in with incentives. So really, this is a case study on what a home builder needs to do to adjust to public perception more so than the reality. That's why Jim and his company keep building when others are they keep building because they keep selling to savvy investors, including you, the GRE listener, conversely, the overbuilt emotional market segment, that's where Florida single family home prices are often about 500k or more, and many of them have stopped building. It's that here, with this workforce housing, brand new, single family rentals sell for the high 200k to 300k range in the three hundreds and duplexes in the four hundreds. We've been working with this provider for nearly a decade, and I've asked them, what can you do for GRE listeners? And these are the best incentives yet, is they basically are making discounts in your favor to deal with this public perception. And they are an interest rate buy down that they make for you, like we mentioned, currently to five and one quarter percent. They're also giving GRE listeners two years of free property management, a rental Protection Program, a six month eviction guarantee and a 210 builder warranty. When you see a builder warranty expressed that way, that means they cover two years on the small stuff, 10 years on the big stuff. The latest pro forma that I saw for their single family rentals had a purchase price of 325k and a cash on cash return of nearly 7% when you include all those generous incentives. So if you're looking for a new market to expand into the time and place could very well be here and now, some people wait for blue sky and everything to be perfect before they act well, that never happens. This is about as close as you'll get today. You'll either keep what you've got or change what you're doing here, Jerry, we constantly shop the nation for you. Our coaches help show you where those deals are that they found. And this is a potential opportunity. Here you can get on the calendar of one of our investment coaches for free. And if you like, start by asking about Florida new build property with all the incentives that you heard about here on GRE podcast, 564 at GRE investment coach.com until next week. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.   Speaker 4  39:09   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  39:32   You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info, oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access, and it's got paywalls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers, it's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is. The Golden Age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read. And when you start the letter, you also get my one hour fast real estate video, course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream. Letter, it wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now just text gre to 66866, while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text, gre to 66866   Keith Weinhold  40:48   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com  

Keith highlights the decline in college town real estate due to demographic changes and reduced international student enrollment.  The national housing market is moving towards balance, with 4.6 months of resale supply and 9.8 months of new build supply.  Commercial real expert and fellow podcast host, Hannah Hammond, joins Keith to discuss how the state of the real estate market is facing a $1 trillion debt reset in 2025, potentially causing distress and foreclosures, particularly in the Sun Belt states.  Resources: Follow Hannah on Instagram  Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/563 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE’ to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation   Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai    Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, are college towns doomed. There's a noticeably higher supply of real estate on the market. Today is get rich education. America's number one real estate investing show. Then how much worse will the Apartment Building Loan implosions get today? On get rich education.   Speaker 1  0:27   Since 2014 the powerful get rich education podcast has created more passive income for people than nearly any other show in the world. This show teaches you how to earn strong returns from passive real estate investing in the best markets without losing your time being a flipper or landlord. Show Host Keith Weinhold writes for both Forbes and Rich Dad advisors, and delivers a new show every week since 2014 there's been millions of listener downloads in 188 world nations. He has a list show guests and key top selling personal finance author Robert Kiyosaki, get rich education can be heard on every podcast platform, plus it has its own dedicated Apple and Android listener phone apps build wealth on the go with the get rich education podcast. Sign up now for the get rich education podcast, or visit get rich education.com   Corey Coates  1:12   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  1:28   Welcome to GRE from Orchard Park, New York to port orchard, Washington and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you're listening to get rich education. How most people set up their life is that they have a job or an income producing activity, and they put that first, then they try to build whatever life they have left around that job. Instead, you are in control of your life when you first ask yourself, what kind of lifestyle Am I trying to build? And then you determine your job based on that. That is lifestyle design, and that is financial freedom, most people, including me, at one time. And probably you get that wrong and put the job first. And then we need to reverse it once you realize that, you discover that you found yourself so far out of position that you try to find your way back by putting your own freedom, autonomy and free agency first. There you are lying on the ground, supine, feeling overwhelmed, asking yourself why you didn't put yourself first. Then what I'm helping you do here is get up and change that by moving your active income over to relatively passive income, and doing it through the most generationally proven vehicle of them all, real estate investing for income. We are not talking about a strategy that didn't exist three years ago and won't exist three years from now. It is proven over time, and there's nothing avant garde or esoteric here, and you can find yourself in a financially free position within five years of starting to gradually shift that active income over to passive income.    Keith Weinhold  3:29   Now, when it comes to today's era of long term real estate investing, we are in the midst of a real estate market that I would describe as slow and flat. Both home price appreciation and rent growth are slow. Overall real estate sales volume is still suppressed. It that sales volume had its recent peak of six and a half million homes moved in 2021 which was a wild market, it was too brisk and annual sales volume is down to just 4 million. Today, more inventory is accumulating, which is both a good news and a bad news story. I'm going to get to this state of the overall market shortly. First, let's discuss real estate market niches, a particular niche, because two weeks ago, I discussed the short term rental arms race. Last week, beach towns and this week, in the third of three installments of real estate market niches are college towns doomed? Does it still make sense to invest in college town real estate? Perhaps a year ago on the show, you'll remember that I informed you that a college closes every single week in the United States. Gosh, universities face an increasingly tough demographic backdrop ahead. We know more and more people get a free education. Education online. Up until now, universities have tapped a growing high school age population in this seemingly bottomless well of international students wanting to study in the US. But America's largest ever birth cohort, which was 4.3 million in 2007 is now waning. Yeah, that's how many Americans were born in 2007 and that was the all time record birth year. Well, all those people turn 18 years old this year. This, therefore, is an unavoidable decline in the pool of potential incoming college freshmen from the United States. And on top of that, the real potential of fewer international students coming to the US to study adds to the concern for colleges. This is due to the effects and the wishes of the Trump administration. It already feels like a depression in some college towns now among metro areas that are especially reliant on higher education, three quarters of them suffered weaker economic growth over the past 12 years than the US has as a whole. That's according to a study at Brookings Metro. They're a non profit think tank in DC, all right, and in the prior decade, all right, previous to that, most of those same metros grew faster than the nation did. If this was really interesting, a recent Wall Street Journal article focused on Western Illinois University in McComb Illinois as being symbolic of this trend, where an empty dorm that once held 800 students has now been converted to a police training ground, it's totally different, where there are active shooter drills and all this overturned furniture rubber tipped bullets and paintball casings, you've got to repurpose some of these old dorms. Nearby dorms have been flattened and they're now weedy fields. Two more dorms are set to close this summer. Frat houses and homes once filled with student renters are now empty lots city streets used to be so crowded during the semester that cars moved at a crawl. That's not happening anymore. It's almost like you're watching the town die, said a resident who was born in Macomb and worked 28 years for the Western Illinois Campus Police Department. Macomb, Illinois is at the heart of a new rust belt across the US colleges are faltering, and so are the once booming towns and economies around them. Enrollment is down at a lot of the nation's public colleges and universities starting next year due to demographics like I mentioned, there will be fewer high school graduates for the foreseeable future, and the fallout extends to downtown McComb. It's punishing local businesses. There's this multiplier effect that's diminishing. It's not multiplying for generations. Colleges around the US fueled local economies, created jobs and brought in students and their visiting families to shop and spend and growing student enrollment fattened school budgets, and that used to free universities from having to worry about inefficiencies or cutting costs. But the student boom has ended, and college towns are suffering. And what are some of the other reasons for these doomed college towns? Well, first, a lot of Americans stopped having babies after the global financial crisis, you've got a strong dollar and an anti foreigner administration that's likely to push international student numbers down on top of this, and then, thirdly, US students are more skeptical of incurring these large amounts of debt for college and then, universities have been increasing administrative costs and tuition above the rate of inflation, and they've been doing that for decades. Tuition and operating costs are detached from reality, and in some places, student housing is still being built like the gravy train is not going to end. I don't see how this ends well for many of these universities or for student housing, so you've really got to think deeply about investing in college town housing anymore. Where I went to college, in Pennsylvania, that university is still open, but their enrollment numbers are down, and they've already closed and consolidated a number of their outlying branch campuses. Now it's important notice that I'm focused on college towns, okay, I'm talking about generally, these small. Smaller, outlying places that are highly dependent on colleges for their vibrancy. By the way, Pennsylvania has a ton of them, all these little colleges, where it seems like every highway exit has the name of some university on it. That is starting to change now.    Keith Weinhold  10:21   Conversely, take a big city like Philadelphia that has a ton of colleges, Temple University, Penn, which is the Ivy League school, St Joseph's, Drexel LaSalle, Bryn Mawr, Thomas Jefferson, Villanova. All these colleges are in the Philly Metro, and some of them are pretty big. Well, you can be better off investing in a Philly because Philly is huge, 6 million people in the metro, and there's plenty of other activity there that can absorb any decline in college enrollment. So understand it's the smaller college town that's in big trouble. And I do like to answer the question directly, are college towns doomed? Yes, some are. And perhaps a better overall answer than saying that college towns are doomed, is college towns have peaked. They've hit their peak and are going down.    Keith Weinhold  11:23   Let's talk about the direction of the overall housing market now, including some lessons where, even if you're listening 10 years from now, you're going to gain some key learning. So we look at the national housing market. There is finally some buyer selection again, resale housing supply is growing. I'm talking overall now, not about the college towns. Back in 2022, nearly every major metro could be considered not just a seller's market, but a strong seller's market. And it was too much. It was wild. Three years ago, buyers had to, oftentimes offer more than the asking price, pay all cash. Buyers had to waive contingencies, forgo inspections, and they had to compete with dozens of bidders. I mean, even if you got a home inspection, you pray that the home inspector didn't find anything worse than like charming vintage wiring, because you might have been afraid to ask for some repairs of the seller, and that's because the market was so hot and competitive that you might lose the deal. Fast forward to today, and fewer markets Hold that strong seller's market status. More metros have adequate inventory. And if you're one of our newsletter subscribers, you saw that last week, I sent you a great set of maps that show this. As you probably know, six months of housing supply is deemed as the balance point between buyers and sellers over six months favors buyers under six favors sellers. All right, so let's see where we are now. And by the way, months of housing supply, that phrase is also known as the absorption rate nationally, 4.6 months of resale supply exists. That's the current level, 4.6 months per the NAR now it bottomed out at a frighteningly low one and a half months of supply back in 2022 and it peaked at 12 full months of supply during the global financial crisis, back in 2010 All right, so these are the amounts of resale housing supply available for sale, and we overbuilt homes back in the global financial crisis, everyday people owned multiple homes 15 years ago because virtually anyone could qualify for a loan with those irresponsible lending standards that existed back in that era. I mean, back then, buyers defaulted on payments and walked away from homes and because they had zero down payment in the home. Well, they had zero skin in the game to protect and again, that peaked at 12 months of supply. Now today, Texas and Florida have temporarily overbuilt pockets that are higher than this 4.6 month national number and of course, we have a lot of markets in the Northeast and Midwest that have less than this supply. But note that 4.6 months is still under six months of supply, still favoring sellers just a little, but today's 4.6 months. I mean, that's getting pretty close to historic norms, close to balance. All right, so where is the best buyer opportunity today? Well, understand that. So far, have you picked up on. This we've looked at existing housing supply levels here, also known as resale homes. The opportunity is in new build homes. What's the supply of new construction homes in the US? And understand for perspective that right now, new build homes comprise about 1/3 of the available housing supply. And this might surprise you, we are now up to 9.8 months of new build housing supply, and that's a number that's risen for two years. That's per the Census Bureau and HUD. A lot of builders, therefore, are getting desperate right now, builders have got to sell. The reason that they're willing to cut you a deal is that, see, builders are paying interest costs and maintenance costs every single day on these nice, brand new homes that are just languishing, just sitting there. Understand something builders don't get the benefit of using a home. Unlike the seller family of a resale or existing home, see that family that has a resale home on the market, they get the benefit of living in it while it's on the market. This 9.8 months of new build supply is why buyers are willing to cut you a deal right now, including builders that we work with here at GRE marketplace.    Keith Weinhold  16:30   And we're going to talk to a builder on the show next week and get them to tell us how desperate they are. In fact, it's a Florida builder, and we'll learn about the incentives that they're willing to cut you they're building in one of these oversupplied pockets. So bottom line is that overall, an increasing US housing supply should keep home prices moderating. They're currently up just one to 2% nationally, and more supply means better options for you. Hey, let's talk about this very show that you're listening to, the get rich education podcast. What do you like to do while you're listening to the show? In fact, what are you doing right now while you're listening to the show? Well, in a recent Instagram poll, we asked our audience that very question you told us while listening to the show, 50% of you are commuting, 20% are exercising, 20% are at work, and 10% are doing home chores like cleaning or dishes. Now is this show the number one real estate investing podcast in the United States, we asked chatgpt that very question, and here's how they answered. They said, Excellent question. Real estate investing podcasts have exploded over the past 10 to 12 years, but only a handful have true long term staying power. Here's a list of some of the longest running, consistently active real estate investing podcasts that have built serious legacies. And you know something, we are not number one based on those criteria. This show is ranked number two in the nation. Number one are our friends at the real estate guys radio show hosted by Robert Helms. How many times have I recommended that you go ahead and give them a listen? Of course, I'm just freshly coming off spending nine days with them as one of the faculty members on their summit at sea. Their show started in 1997Yes, on actual radio, before podcasts even existed, and chat GPT goes on to say that they're one of the OGS in the space. It focuses on market cycles, investing strategies and wealth building principles known for its international investor perspective and high profile guests like Robert Kiyosaki. All right, that's what it says about that show. And then rank number two is get rich. Education with me started in 2014 and it goes on to say that this is what the show's about. It says it's real estate centric with a macroeconomic and financial freedom philosophy. It focuses on buy and hold investing, inflation, debt strategy and wealth building. Yeah, that's what it says. And I'd say that's about right? And this next thing is interesting. It describes the host of the show, me as communicating with you in a way that's clear, calm and slightly academic. That's what it says. And yeah, you've got to be clear. Today. There's so much competing for your attention that if I'm not clear with you, then I'm not able to help you calm. Okay? I guess I remain calm. And then finally, slightly academic. I. Hadn't thought about that before. Do you think that I'm slightly academic in my delivery? I guess that's possible. It's appropriate for a show with the word education in our name. I guess it makes sense that I'd be slightly academic. So that fits. I wouldn't want to be heavily academic or just academic, because that could get unrelatable. So there's your answer. The number two show in the nation for real estate investing.    Keith Weinhold  20:29   How are things going with your rental properties? Anyway, I had something interesting happen to me here these past few months. Now I have a property manager in one market that manages quite a few of my properties, all these single family homes and I had five perfect months consecutively as a real estate investor. A perfect month means when you have 100% occupancy, 100% rent collection, and zero maintenance or repair costs. Well, this condition went on for five months with every property that they managed. For me, which is great, profitable news, but that's so unusual to have a streak like that, it kind of makes you wonder if something's going wrong. But the streak just ended. Finally, there was a $400 expense on one of these single family homes. Well, this morning, the manager emailed me about something else. One of my tenants leases expires at the end of next month. I mean, that's typical. This is happening all the time with some property, but they suggested raising the rent from $1,700 up to 1725, and I rarely object to what the property manager suggests. I mean, after all, they are the expert in that local market. That's only about a one and a half percent rent increase, kind of slow there. But again, we're in this era where neither home price growth nor rent growth have been exceptional.    Keith Weinhold  22:02   I am in upstate Pennsylvania today. This is where I'm from. I'm here for my high school class reunion. And, you know, it's funny, the most interesting people to talk to are usually the people that have moved away from this tiny town in Appalachia, counter sport, Pennsylvania, it's not the classmates that stayed and stuck around there in general are less interesting. And yes, this means I am sleeping in my parents home all week. I know I've shared with you before that Curt and Penny Weinhold have lived in the same home and have had the same phone number since 1974 and I sleep in the same bedroom that I've slept in since I was an infant every time that I visit them. Kind of heartwarming. In a few days, I'm going to do a tour of America's first and oldest pretzel bakery in Lititz, Pennsylvania with my aunts and uncles to review what you've learned so far today, put your life first and then build your income producing activity around that. Many college towns are demographically doomed, and even more, have peaked and are on their way down. Overall American residential real estate supply is up. We're now closer to a balanced market than a seller's market. We've discussed the distress in the five plus unit apartment building space owners and syndicators started having their deals blow up, beginning in 2022 when interest rates spiked on those short term and balloon loans that are synonymous with apartment buildings. When we talked to Ken McElroy about it a few weeks ago on the show, he said that the pain still is not over for apartment building owners.   Keith Weinhold  23:51   coming up next, we'll talk about it from a different side, as I'll interview a commercial real estate lender and get her insights. I'll ask her just how bad it will get. And this guest is rather interesting. She's just 29 years old, really bright and articulate, and she founded her own commercial real estate lending firm. She and I recorded this on a cruise ship while we're on the real estate guys Investor Summit at sea a few weeks ago. So you will hear some background noise, you'll get to meet her next I'm Keith Weinhold. There will only ever be one. Get rich education podcast episode 563 and you're listening to it.    Keith Weinhold  24:31   The same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties, they help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your prequel and even chat with President Caeli Ridge personally, while it's on your mind, start at Ridge lendinggroup.com that. Ridge lendinggroup.com, you know what's crazy?    Keith Weinhold  25:03   Your bank is getting rich off of you. The average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I started putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns, and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading. It's pretty low risk because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. You can invest as little as 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back. No weird lockups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds just sitting there doing nothing, check it out. Text family to 66 866, to learn about freedom family investments, liquidity fund, again, text family to 66866   Caeli Ridge  26:13   this is Ridge lending group's president, Caeli Ridge. Listen to get rich education with key blind holes. And remember, don't quit your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  26:31   Hey, Governor, education nation, Keith Weinhold, here we're on a summit for real estate on a cruise ship, and I'm with Hannah Hammond. She's the founder of HB capital, a commercial real estate lending firm, and the effervescent host of the Hannah Hammond show. Hey, it's great to chat   Hannah Hammond  26:48   you too. It's been so great to get to know you on this ship, and it's been a lot of fun,    Keith Weinhold  26:51   and we just met at this conference for the first time. Hannah just gave a great, well received presentation on the state of the commercial real estate market. And the most interesting thing, and the thing everyone really wants to know since she lends for five plus unit apartment buildings as well, is about the commercial real estate interest rate resets. Apartment Building values have fallen about 30% nationwide, and that is due to these resetting loans. So tell us about that.   Hannah Hammond  27:19   Yeah, so there is a tidal wave of commercial real estate debt coming due in 2025 some of that has already come due, and we've been seeing a lot of the distressed assets start to hit the market in various asset classes, from multifamily, industrial, retail and beyond. And then, as we continue through 2025 more of that title, weight of debt is going to continue to come due, which is estimated to be around $1 trillion of debt.    Keith Weinhold  27:44   That's huge. I mean, that is a true tidal wave. So just to pull back really simply, we're talking about maybe an apartment building owner that almost five years ago might have gotten an interest rate at, say, 4% and in today's higher interest rate environment that's due to reset to a higher rate and kill their cash flow and take them out of business. Tell us about that.   Hannah Hammond  28:03   Yeah. So a lot of investors got caught up a few years ago when rates were really low, and they bought these assets at very low cap rates, which means very high prices, and they projected, maybe over projected, continuous rent growth, like double digit rent growth, which many markets were seeing a few years back, and that rent growth has actually slowed down tremendously. And so much supply hit the market at the same time, because so much construction was developed a few years back. And so now there's a challenge, because rents have actually dropped. There's an overage of supply. Rates have doubled. You know, people were getting apartment complexes and other assets in the two or 3% interest rate range. Now it's closer to the six to 7% interest rate range, which we all know it just doesn't really make numbers work. Every 1% increase in interest you'd have to have about a 10% drop in value for that monthly payment to be the same. So that's why we're seeing a lot of distress in this market right now, which is bad for the people that are caught up on it, but it's good for those who can have the capital to re enter the market at a lower basis and be able to weather this storm and ride the wave back up   Keith Weinhold  29:08   income down, expenses up. Not a very profitable formula. Let's talk more about from this point. How bad can it get? We talked about 1 trillion in loans coming due this calendar year tell us about how bad it might be.    Hannah Hammond  29:23   So it's estimated that potentially 25% of that $1 trillion could be in potential distress. And of course, if two $50 billion of commercial real estate hit foreclosure all at the same time, that would be pretty catastrophic, and there would be a massive supply hitting the market, and therefore a massive reduction in property values and prices. And so a lot of lenders have been trying to mitigate the risk of this happening, and all of this distress debt hit the market at one time. And so lenders have been doing loan modifications and loan extensions and the extend and pretend, quote. Has been in play since back in 2025 but a lot of those extensions are coming due. That's why we're feeling a little bit more of a slower bleed in the commercial market. But you know, in the residential market, we're not seeing as much distress, because so many people have those fixed 30 year rates. But in commercial real estate, rates are generally not fixed for that long. They're more they could be floating get or they might only be fixed for five years, and then they've reset. And that's what we're seeing now, is a lot of those assets that were bought within the last five years have those rate caps expiring, and then the rates are jacking it up to six to 7% and the numbers just don't make sense anymore.   Keith Weinhold  30:36   That one to four unit space single family homes up fourplexes has stayed relatively stable. We're talking about that distress and the five plus unit multi family apartment space. So Hannah, when we pull back and we look at the lender risk appetite and the propensity to lend and to want to make loans, of course, that environment changes over time. I know that all of us here at the summit, we learn from you in your presentation that that can vary by region in the loan to value ratio and the other terms that they're talking about giving. So tell us about some of the regional variation. Where do people want to lend and where do people want to avoid making loans   Hannah Hammond  31:11   Exactly? And we were talking about this is every single region is so different, and there's even micro markets within certain cities and metropolitan areas, and the growth corridors could have a very different outlook and performance than even in the overexposed metro areas. So lenders really pay attention to where the capital is flowing to. And right now, if you look at u haul reports and cell phone data, capital is flowing mostly to the Sun Belt states, and it's leaving the Rust Belt states. So this is your southeast states, your Texas, Florida, Arizona, and these types of regions where a lot of people are leaving some of the Rust Belt states like San Francisco, Chicago, New York, where those markets are being really dragged down by all this office drag from all the default rates in these office buildings that have continued to accumulate post COVID. So the lender appetite is going to shift Market to Market, and they really pay attention to the asset class and also the region in which that asset class is located. And this can affect the LTV, the amount of money that they're going to lend based on the value of the property, also the interest rate and the DSCR ratios, which is how much above the debt coverage the income has to be for the lender to lend on that asset.    Keith Weinhold  32:26   So we're talking about lenders more willing to make loans in places where the population is moving to Florida, other markets in the Southeast Texas, Arizona. Is that what we're talking about here.   Hannah Hammond  32:37   exactly, and even on the equity side, because we help with equity, like JV equity or CO GP equity, on these development projects or value add projects. And a lot of my equity investors, they're like, Nah, not interested in that state. But if it's in a really good Sunbelt type market, then they have a better appetite to lend in those markets.   Keith Weinhold  32:56   Was there any last thing that we should know about the lending environment? Something that impacts the viewers here, maybe something I didn't think about asking you?   Hannah Hammond  33:04   I mean, credit is tight, but there's tons of opportunity. Deals are still happening. Cre originations are actually up in 2025 and projected to land quite a bit higher in 2025 at about 660, 5 billion in originations, versus 539 billion in 2024 so the good news is, deals are happening, movements are happening, purchases and sales are happening. And we need movement to have this market continue to be strong and take place, even though, unfortunately, some investors are going to be stuck in that default debt and they might lose on these properties, it's going to give an opportunity for a lot of other investors who have been kind of sitting on the sidelines, saving up capital and aligning their capital to be able to take advantage of these great deals. Because honestly, we all know it's been really hard to make deals pencil over the past few years, and now with some of this reset, it's going to be a little bit easier to make them pencil.    Keith Weinhold  33:04   This is great. Loans are leverage, compound leverage, trunks, compound interest, leverage and loans are really key to you making more of yourself. Anna, if someone wants to learn more about following you and what you do, what's the best way for them to do that?    Hannah Hammond  33:42   At Hannah B Hammond on Instagram, my show, the Hannah Hammond show, is also on all platforms, YouTube, Instagram, Spotify, Apple, and if you shoot me a follow and a message on Instagram, I will personally respond to and would love to stay connected and help with any questions you have in the commercial real estate market.    Keith Weinhold  34:27   Hannah's got a great presence, and she's great in person too. Go ahead and be sure to give her a follow. We'll see you next time. Thank you.   Keith Weinhold  34:40   Yeah. Sharp insight from Hannah Hammond, there $1 trillion in commercial real estate debt comes due this year. A quarter of that amount, $250 billion is estimated to be in distress or default. This could keep the values of larger apartment buildings suppressed. Even longer, as far as where today's opportunity is, next week on the show, we'll talk to a home builder in Florida, ground zero for an overbuilt market, and we'll see if we can sense the palpable desperation that they have to move their properties and what kind of deals they're giving buyers. Now until next week, I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, do the right thing before you do things right out there, and don't quit your Daydream.   Speaker 3  35:33   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  35:56   You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info. Oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access and it's got pay walls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers. It's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters. And I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text gre 266, 866, while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text, gre 266, 866,   Keith Weinhold  37:12   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com.  

Register here for the live online event to learn about ‘Unlocking BRRRR Deals in Little Rock’ on Thursday, 7/17. Keith discusses the rising cost of real estate, predicting that million-dollar homes will become common by 2033 due to: supply scarcity, demographic demand, inflation, and regulatory costs. Over half of U.S. states have cities with starter home prices over $1 million.  Hear about the challenges of investing in beach towns, citing rising insurance costs and maintenance expenses GRE Investment Coach, Naresh, joins the conversation to highlight the BRRRR strategy for income property investment. Resources: Register here for the live online event to learn about ‘Unlocking BRRRR Deals in Little Rock’ on Thursday, 7/17. Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/562 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE’ to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai    Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, million dollar homes will be normal by 2033 I'll discuss why and exactly where they'll be arriving. Why are more beach towns going bust? What's in the big, beautiful bill for real estate investors? Then how to own income property with just 10% equity in it today on get rich education.    Keith Weinhold  0:28   Mid South home buyers, I mean, they're total pros, with over two decades as the nation's highest rated turnkey provider. Their empathetic property managers use your ROI as their North Star. So it's no wonder that smart investors just keep lining up to get their completely renovated income properties like it's the newest iPhone. They're headquartered in Memphis and have globally attractive cash flows and A plus rating with the Better Business Bureau and now over 5000 houses renovated, there's zero markup on maintenance. Let that sink in, and they average a 98.9% occupancy rate, while their average renter stays more than three and a half years. Every home they offer has brand new components, a bumper to bumper, one year warranty, new 30 year roofs. And wait for it, a high quality renter. Remember that part and in an astounding price range, 100 to 180k I've personally toured their office and their properties in person in Memphis, get to know Mid South. Enjoy cash flow from day one. Start yourself right now at mid southhomebuyers.com that's mid south homebuyers.com.   Speaker 1  1:53   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  2:10   Welcome to GRE from Palm Bay Florida to Palm Springs, California and across 188 nations worldwide, you are inside one of the longest running and most listened to shows on real estate investing. This is Get Rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, I think you know that by now, you can also find my written work in both Forbes and the USA. Today, million dollar homes could be coming to right where you live only as the average home, a typical home. Best said is the million dollar median priced home. They're increasingly common across America. We're going to look at the exact areas where this is going to happen next, and why. Though, real estate prices are only up about 2% annually. This time, a plethora of forces are conspiring to push median American home prices ever higher to a million bucks by 2033 the reasons for ever higher future prices on a national basis are supply scarcity. Though, homes aren't as scarce as they were, say three years ago, incessant demographic demand, continued inflation, tariff pressures, heightened regulatory costs, the rate lock in effect remote work and a perpetual construction labor shortage that makes it easier to find a unicorn than, say, a good plumber out there. All these things are conspiring to push long term prices up, up, up, and sadly, this will make first time home buyer dreams, well only dreams, not a reality for so many Americans. CBS News recently called first time homebuyers an endangered species for this reason. Hmm. Then I wonder if the US Fish and Wildlife Service is now protecting these beleaguered, endangered first time homebuyers. Now the typical Canadian single family home costs 779,500 Canadian dollars today. And get this now, of course, some US regions will have rising prices, and others falling prices in the shorter term, although the general direction is up, but more than half of us, states, 28 out of 50, already have at least one city where the median price for a starter home, just a starter home, is a million dollars or more. This is per realtor.com economist. More than half of states have that condition. Now I want a starter home that's defined as 80% or less of the price of an area's median Well, here we go. It is not just trophy cities anymore that are on the precipice of the million dollar club. It's these moderately priced cities that are next in line, and one trend is that they're located near already expensive markets. For example, Stockton, California is two hours inland from San Francisco, and Stockton is best known for well being two hours from San Francisco. That's about it, all right. Well, here is the 2023 median price. And it's 2033 projection, only eight years away, really, just a little over seven years away. This is where we're going. All right, Boise, from 465k up to $1,163,000 million $163,000 Boston, from 623k to 992k and again, these are 2023 median home prices, and then what they're projected to be in 2033 as these million dollar homes become typical, just in these somewhat moderately priced. US areas, let's continue Colorado Springs. 455k up to $1,020,000 I've made two trips to Colorado Springs in the past two years. I really like it. They're really livable with a nice little airport Denver. 548k up to $1,297,000 Honolulu, 638k up to $1,144,000 Portland, 501k to more than doubling to $1,052,000 Sacramento, 558 up to over $1.1 million Salt Lake City, more than doubling from 493k up to $1,064,000 Seattle, 694k up to $1,486,000 and finally, the aforementioned their Stockton, California, 579k up to $1,447,000 million dollar homes are increasingly abundant into places that are surely Not trophy cities anymore. They're projected to come to all these places by 2033 and this is very realistic, because consider this, what will a million dollars even be worth in 2033 just a little more than seven years away, what will a million dollars even be worth then at 3% inflation, just $789,400 All right. Well, what should you do with this information? It gives you perspective, waiting is not helping get comfy with million dollar homes that are like just kind of all right? And here's the thing, a million dollar home that used to be like posh that used to come with a waterfront view or a celebrity neighbor, and today you just get a popcorn ceiling in a mysterious draft in some entire counties, like I've told you before, in San Mateo County, California, the median home price is already over $2 million just an average home county wide. And I also mentioned to you that there's another California County, Santa Clara, California, where the median price is over $2 million but there are more Nantucket, Massachusetts, Pitkin, Colorado and Teton County, Wyoming, all over $2 million county wide. I mean, in places like this, a million dollar home is a gut job. I mean, it needs a renovation. In these places, a million dollar home costs less than half of the county median. So therefore it is so broken down that you might not even be able to get a conventional loan for that property. And notice that the Sun Belt is not on any of these lists for now, despite its growth, there's still vast land and cheaper housing there the southeast and the Midwest, they still feel like America's affordable housing frontier. But you've got to wonder, for how long and what else does this continued low affordability mean? It's the American. Emerging trend that few people see coming, but we've talked about here, it's that common tidal wave, this horde of new renters that are coming, priced out of million dollar homes. Your renters are coming, and what does this mean for you? Well, consider owning low cost rental property in those low cost parts of the nation. We help you do that here, completely free, at GRE investment coach.com a tidal wave of future renter demand means higher rents and higher occupancy rates. Your renters are coming.   Keith Weinhold  10:39   now, last week, on the show, I discussed the Airbnb arms race, how short term rentals really need a serious glow up and some major investment to compete in a lot of markets anymore. This week, let's discuss the trends in another real estate niche that's largely fallen on some harder times, and that is investing in beach town, something that might be more top of mind for us, as we are here in mid summer. The very best beach town for a bikini slim budget is Pascagoula, Mississippi, a gulf shore escape, where the typical listing will run you a mere 166k can you believe that now this gulf coast town of 22,000 people, it is somewhat of an aberration, though, be careful, Pascagoula is affected by a FEMA rule that really limits the amount of renovation that you can do there? Atlantic City, New Jersey, it's another beach town with a jaw droppingly Low typical list price of 242k yeah. Atlantic City, AC is the name long synonymous with gambling and Trump property port. Ritchie, Florida is another notably cheap beach town with just a 255k typical list price. And it's notable because back in 2019 GRE did a real estate field trip there where I and the property provider and a few speakers, we hosted you, and then we toured properties together in a coach, a tour bus, but those neighborhoods were actually about two miles inland, Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, still just 299k. Corpus Christi, Texas and Ocean City, Maryland, are two more notably cheap beach towns now, especially after talking about the million dollar homes and then you hearing about these cheap beach towns. You might be wondering, gosh, should I buy property for cheap in these beach towns? But, you know, buying the beach house is just the start. Rising. Insurance costs and maintenance costs have forced a lot of investors to question whether beach homes are too big of a gamble now with a few investor profiles here were interviewed first Levi Rogers, a retired Green Beret and a real estate broker in San Antonio, he recently shared how his property on the Gulf Coast went from $3,200 a year for insurance to over $11,000 and that's if you can even get coverage without bizarre exclusions, throw in new flood zone Redeterminations and wild HOA fee hikes due to inflation, and your profits are wiped out in an instant. That's what Levi Rogers says about his particular situation. Honestly, coastal property makes me more nervous than my first Million Dollar Listing. Despite loving beachfront real estate, that's what Los Angeles real estate agent Wesley Kang says he's seen changes that would shock most investors. Insurance costs broke another record at his Marina del Rey listing the owner just got hit with a $68,000 annual premium up from 15k last year, while his neighbor, two blocks inland, pays just 7k so in addition to hurricanes and slow and steady beach erosion, that has caused some homes to simply collapse and fall into the sea. Kang, the Los Angeles real estate agent, said his Malibu client just spent his entire summer rental income on mandatory seawall repairs. Another had to install $100,000 worth of water barriers just to keep his insurance. So is a beach home a good investment? Well, owning it really is not the easy, dreamy investment that it used to be. There are some investors that still think it's worth it, but they need to change their strategy. Roger said that he hasn't sold yet. He just. Had to adapt. That's the San Antonio real estate broker. He cut his rental period down to only the high season months. Raised his rates by 22% just totally ended low season bookings, and he promoted high end upgrades to make the numbers work. He says you have to run it like a hospitality business now, not a passive rental, so the ROI can still be there, but only if you're really on top of it, actively managing risk and costs and the guest experience. Otherwise, what you're doing is that you are just financing someone else's vacation. And this is along the lines of what I was discussing last week with short term rentals in general. Real Estate Investor Daniel Roberts, based in Idaho, he says beach properties are now riskier. He has reinvented his approach to stay solvent. He says we improved our rental by presenting the property as a luxury destination, adding concierge services with dining and boat tours and even fitness sessions. With this rental arrangement, we earned 18% more on rental income last year compared to the previous year, is what he says. However, still, our profits have decreased a little since we now pay so much more each month for insurance and for maintenance, if you're shopping for a beach house and hoping for a deal, it might pay to search a bit inland for cheaper properties and insurance rates, and then it's not really a beach house anymore. Elevation is your friend. Certain oceanfront areas are experiencing a steep drop in some places like Florida. I mean, can you buy the dip if you're looking for opportunities in investor areas like Florida, which saw a huge run up of people heading there during the pandemic, but their jobs require them to return to the office. If you're in the market for a vacation property that you can rent out and possibly use as a second home. There are beginning to be more and more choices. So the bottom line here is that many beach towns are in a bust. Their profitability is under attack, chiefly from these insurance premiums that have as much as 3x or more for many in the past three or four years, Hoa costs are up due to inflation, and then there's just simply the threat of more storms and more beach erosion, and just the stress and concern that causes even outside of the insurance cost, short term rentals tend to be right on the coast or A short walk from the beach. The best long term rentals tend to be inland, inland. Long term rentals are long where we have focused here on this show, and they tend to be stable and steady and frankly, kind of boring, but somehow boring in an interesting way, if that's possible, they plod along paying you five ways.    Keith Weinhold  18:05   Hey, is get rich education the number one real estate investing podcast in America. Are we number one? I've got an answer for you on an upcoming episode. It looks like the big, beautiful bill that was signed into law on the Fourth of July will be advantageous for real estate investors. It extends a lot of Trump's 2017, tax cuts and Jobs Act. There are modifications to opportunity zones in the big, beautiful bill. But the big story is that 100% bonus depreciation has been restored, reset, huge that applies to qualified property placed in service from January 20, 2025 through the end of 2029 now is the Time to accelerate acquisitions and renovations to leverage 100% bonus depreciation. I mean, this is great for investors. And what this does is it allows you to fully deduct the cost of qualifying renovations, property improvements and certain building components immediately, instead of you, having to spread the deductions out over several years. Major however, the big, beautiful bill does not do much of anything to help those beleaguered first time homebuyers that endangered species. In fact, in a previous version of the bill, it was going to open up millions of acres of public lands for new development. Now, if that happened, that could have added more housing supply and therefore kept home prices from perpetually rising, and therefore maybe helped first time home buyers. But that provision was removed from the bill before it got passed. All right, so those public. Lands will not be developed. That was not part of this bill, and that's a quick overview of what Trump's big, beautiful Bill means to real estate investors. To review what you've learned so far. Today, million dollar homes are coming to more places, and that's due to supply scarcity, demographic demand, incessant inflation, tariff pressures, heightened regulatory costs, the rate lock in effect, remote work and a perpetual construction labor shortage. More beach town properties are going bust due to surging property insurance costs and the big beautiful Bill has some serious positives for real estate investors, but not for first time home buyers.    Keith Weinhold  20:45   There is a lot happening here at GRE we, including me and our investment coaches here, are talking with you, our investors. We're talking with the nation's top property providers, as we always do, and there's just a lot of real estate news. How can you follow us to keep up on all this? Well, there are three main ways, and they're all free. There's no subscription cost. That is, firstly, through this show, the get rich education podcast. Secondly, our YouTube channel called get rich education. Yes, we are consistently branded. And the third main way to follow us is with our Don't quit your Daydream newsletter. Sign Up Free by texting GRE to 66 866, that's text GRE to 6668 66 and there you go. They're in they are the three main ways to follow us, podcast, YouTube channel and newsletter, and then also our social media channels, get rich education can be found at all the usual places, Facebook, Instagram, Tiktok and x, but our handle is Get Rich ed on x because there is a character count limit there. That's how to follow us. You can find our recommended property providers at GRE marketplace when you're getting actionable, and then to engage with us for a free strategy session to learn your goals and really put you on a financially free trajectory. You can do that with our investment coaches directly book time on their calendar at GRE investment coach.com   Keith Weinhold  22:25   what is happening with the future of the Fed and interest rates, and how can you put as little as 15% even 10% down on an income property? That's next. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education    Keith Weinhold  22:39   the same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your pre qual and even chat with President Caeli Ridge personally, while it's on your mind, start at Ridge lendinggroup.com. That's Ridge lendinggroup.com.   Keith Weinhold  23:11   You know what's crazy? Your bank is getting rich off of you. The average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I started putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading. It's pretty low risk, because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. You can invest as little as 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back. No weird lockups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds just sitting there doing nothing, check it out. Text family 266, 866, to learn about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund again. Text family to 66 866   Naresh Vissa  24:21   you this is peak prosperity. Chris Martenson, listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  24:42   It's terrific to have a familiar voice back on the show. It's an in house discussion with our own GRE investment coach since 2021 he's met with you, usually over zoom or the phone completely free to learn your own personal goals. Find the market that's right for you. Two. And he even goes as far as helping connect you with the exact property address that would make your next real estate pays five ways property, like say, you find 654, Maple Street in Little Rock, Arkansas or Indianapolis, Indiana. For you, he helps you through it all. And then he even helps you if you have any trouble after owning the income property. He's got the formal education with his MBA, and he walks the talk because he's a direct real estate investor, just like I am. Hey, welcome back to the show investment coach Naresh Vissa.   Naresh Vissa  25:32   thanks for having me back on. It's always a pleasure to talk to you and the loyal GRE listenership that we have. I think   Keith Weinhold  25:40   we enjoy talking to each other more than President Donald Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell do for sure. And I think if anyone's been paying any attention, there's been quite a feud between Trump and Powell, and it's been pretty entertaining. Trump has referred to Powell as Mr. Too late, like too late to make a decision. He has called Powell a numbskull. He has said Powell has a low IQ for what he does. That drama has been really interesting now. Powell's term ends in May of next year, so about 10 months from now. And I think most anyone knows that Trump wants an interest rate cut badly, but Powell keeps holding tight, and what Trump says is that he wants to lower the interest costs on our national debt. That's the reason that Trump gives for lowering the rates. But Powell's been reluctant to lower rates because it might stoke inflation. In reality, I suspect that Trump wants lower rates just to juice economic growth, like that's the real reason, and then Trump sort of hopes that inflation only catches up with the next president who comes in in 2029 and interestingly, back on July 1, Jerome Powell said, if it weren't for tariffs, he would have already lowered rates. What are your thoughts?   Naresh Vissa  26:55   Well this is a lot more complicated than it seems, and here's why Trump called Powell a lot of names, and I think some of those names hold true if we go back to when Biden was president, because it was in April, May 2021, that I was saying, hey, it's time to start increasing the interest rates, because inflation was going up significantly, very quickly, it was going up. And if you recall, Keith, I know you did many episodes on this, Powell kept saying, Oh, this is transitory. It's just transitory. And my whole justification was, well, look, a 25 basis point hike ain't gonna kill anybody. And they refused to do it for an entire year. Once we started seeing inflation going up. And by that point, inflation went up close to 10% that's how bad it got. That's it didn't hit the double digits, but it was very close to hitting the double digits. So yes, I do think Powell was a numbskull for not raising the rates back in 2021 but today I'm actually on Powell's side, because there are still inflationary pressures. And remember, Keith, the inflation target is 2% it's not two and a half percent. They haven't moved the goalposts. It's still 2% and last month, this is the media is not talking about this, except for get rich education today, inflation went up last month. So yes, it beat expectations, but it still went up. The expectations were that the terrorists were going to create this massive inflation and we would be back up at the three handle. And it didn't do that. But regardless, inflation still went up. So let's wait. Let's see what the CPI numbers show. I don't think we're going to be close. I don't think we're going to be under that 2% figure within the next two months, and that's why I think Powell is justified in holding to rate study. Now, with that being said, I do think because of Doge, we did an episode earlier this year on Doge, because of Doge, because of the latest ADP job numbers, the latest unemployment numbers, the private sector cuts that are happening at Microsoft and Google and a lot of other big name companies. I do think that inflation will eventually dip below 2% you look at the gas prices have hit four year lows. Look at egg prices have hit, I think four year lows or three year lows. I do think we'll dip below the 2% at some point. The question is, is, when is it going to be? You know, three months from now? Is it going to be a year from now? It all depends. So what does that mean for your question of, is Powell right? Is he wrong? Is he a numbskull? Who's right? I completely understand what you said is why Trump wants the rates cut, and that is, he wants to juice everything because he looks great, and it's a midterm election year, next year, and he doesn't want to lose his Congress. And I understand the political side of it, but the number one issue, the number one issue, according to almost every poll out there before. Election, the number one issue on voters minds was inflation. It's had things. The bleeding has not stopped, and the inflation is out of control. The groceries are too expensive. That's what's important. And I'm on Powell's side here. I think you have to be patient. On the other hand, Trump is being very aggressive, and he's looking to replace Powell, and he's going to put in his guy in there. I mean, the basic requirement for the job is you're going to get in there and slash entry. You're not even going to do a 25 basis point cut. You're going to go down to 1% fed upon rates overnight. That's what Trump wants. I don't know if you saw that, but Trump wants a 1% Fed funds rate pretty much overnight, because he's saying, oh, is going to save us all this money on the debt that we're paying, interest payments and data I get where both of these guys are coming from. I think the ideal scenario, because Powell, it looks like he's safe until maybe the end of the year. I think we hit that 2% point, definitely by the end of the year, and Powell will start cutting in September, we'll see a 25 that's what I think. I think we'll see a 25 basis point cut in September, maybe a 50 basis point cut in the next meeting after that, and and maybe even a 75 basis point cut in December. And that way, when the new guy comes in, he doesn't have to do this drastic COVID March, 2020, type of cut, of slashing rates close to zero overnight. We do it in a gradual I think that would be better for the country and for the economy and for the global economy. So that's where I see things. But regardless, regardless, we know for a fact that the interest rates, the cutting is beginning soon, and the rates are going to be very low sometime next year, if not by the end of next year, we know for a fact that the rates are going to be very, very low. And what that means for the housing market is that, and let's talk about the housing market really quickly, the inventory in the housing market is the supply side is very high. This is not 2021 2022 when homes are flying off the shelves and people were paying above asking price for homes. We're in a situation where the inventory has piled up. Home values have somewhat stagnated. If rates are going to bottom next year, then buying real estate. I don't want to say I'm not calling a bottom, but I'm saying that you can expect real estate home values to skyrocket once rates hit that 1% because of the Fed funds rate. So right now, we're seeing demand from investors because they're thinking what I'm saying, hey, the Fed is going to slash. We know that for sure because of Trump. And when that happens, institutions, individuals, they're going to start taking out debt, and the housing market's going to skyrocket just like stocks. I mean, really, most assets are going to skyrocket. So right now, I think, is an excellent, excellent time to be looking at buying real estate, and then you can just refinance later, when the rates bottom in a year or two,   Keith Weinhold  32:50   when you talk about high housing supply, I think what you mean is higher housing supply. Nationally, we're still 12% under supplied. It's just the fact that we have 30% more available housing supply in the one to four unit space than we did a year ago. At this time when we're talking about interest rates and things that have to do with the larger economy, here, you the listener should be aware that Naresh has often been tapped and interviewed by major network television on his opinions on these sort of broader economic issues, so he is qualified that way. And to give you an idea with what we're talking about with this desire to get the Fed funds rate down to 1% whether that happens or not, today's Fed funds rate is around 4.3% just to give you an idea of the magnitude of the potential cut, I don't forecast interest rates because it's very difficult to do, but it's interesting that Naresh has done some of that, and let's remember that Trump is actually the one that appointed Jerome Powell back in Trump's first term, and there's been a good bit of speculation around who the next appointee might be. In fact, if that appointee is named several months before Powell's termination of his term in May. Some people think that could be Treasury Secretary Scott Besant, that that alone could change the dynamic, that you would get someone more likely on board to make rate cuts and name them before they actually come into office.   Naresh Vissa  34:14   Well, the President decides he appoints that position, and we know for a fact 100% Trump is only going to put his person in there, man or woman, we don't know, but he's going to put his person. And the basic requirement for the job, it's not a PhD from Harvard or being a multi billionaire like Scott Besant. The basic requirement for the job is cutting the rates to 1% the Fed funds rate to 1% that's the bare minimum basic requirement for the job, and there are apparently lines of people who are lining up because they think they fit that requirement. So we know that's coming. We know it's coming at the latest, next year, like I said, Because Trump said it himself, and to be calling somebody a numbskull and all these names, he's very serious about this. It's an issue that means a lot to him. And again, I get where Trump's coming from. The government would save a lot of money on interest payments. And Trump's justification is, inflation is low, let's just try it, which I somewhat agree with. He says, Let's just try it, and if the inflation goes back up, then you just raise the rates. Don't you know, Powell was too late in 2021 the next guy won't be too late in raising rates this time around if the inflation does go back up. So it's a different strategy that would definitely juice the economy overnight. Of course, he wants that. Everyone's got their own opinions. I'm of the opinion. I think the Fed actually is for the most part. Post 2022 has done a good job. In fact, I did an episode with you, I think, a year and a half ago, saying that the Fed should have done more rate hikes, because we would have been at 2% inflation a year ago had the Fed done one or two more rate hikes, in my opinion. And we saw at the end of Biden's presidency, inflation started going back up when the Fed actually cut rates, when they should have been raising rates previously. So with that being said, this is a good opportunity for investors, because we are in that doldrum right now where we know the rate cuts are coming, at least we, you and I and GRE listeners know that the rate cuts are coming. Not everybody knows that they're coming, because they may not pay attention or follow this stuff as closely as we do. We know that they're coming, and what that means for the housing market is, like I said, juice. We can see juice in stocks. We can see juice and housing. We can see juice and Bitcoin and other commodities.   Keith Weinhold  36:35   Well, you use the word doldrum. Yes, the housing market is in somewhat of a doldrum. We have lower transaction volume than we have historically, for sure, and really that's led by we need to keep in mind as investors, that that's lower owner, occupant purchase volume, because investor purchases have stayed pretty steady.   Naresh Vissa  36:56   Yes, I'll say this, Keith, we work with a lot of different providers all around the country. I want to say we're up to something like 30 different providers in 20 different markets or so. When these partners are calling me saying, Hey, we got all these properties and send me your people and you know, let's do business together and help us find more investors, then I know that the housing market has somewhat stalled. It's not doing terrible, but I know that it's when those providers aren't calling me, or when they even cut off the relationship and say, Hey, I don't want to talk to you anymore. I don't want to work with you anymore. Then I know, hey, it's a really hot housing market. They don't really need me. And I'll tell you right now, every other day I have a partner of ours, I had to tell them to stop call. I said An email will do, or a text message will do. You don't need to call and leave me a bunch of voicemails. I have people calling me every day saying, Hey, we got all these properties, and they're amazing and they're beautiful, and send your people to us, which tells me that it could be actually a good time to start buying. Because it's not like I said, 2021 it's not 2022 it could be a good time right now, because the investor will hold more leverage, and the incentives that these partners are offering are second to none. I've never seen incentives this good. I mean, it's not just the free property management, it's not just the closing cost credit. It's negotiating prices of homes. It's getting cash back at closing, so just literally having a check overnighted to you that's in the five figures, cash back for buying property. So overall, I think it's a really, really good time right now to get into real estate, probably one of the best times, if not the best time since I joined GRE at the end of 2021   Keith Weinhold  38:40   of course, Ken McElroy was just here on the show with us a couple weeks ago, talking about what a good time it is to buy from his perspective as well. But yeah, Naresh, I appreciate that you're kind of letting the listener peek behind the curtain a little bit. We really get a good read on the pulse of the market here, and part of our job is to vet those providers that we work with, yeah, the race. Well, one property strategy that almost transcends eras is the BRRRR strategy. It's such a popular strategy with investors, because you can get in to a deal and have so little of your money left in the deal that you could end up with 10 to one levered. So the burr strategy, that's probably the most popular strategy with our investors. So tell us more about that.   Naresh Vissa  39:27   We've done several webinars already about Bert, and this has become the most popular strategy with our investors, hands down the amount of volume that we're seeing with our investors, people who keep buying more and more because the first one worked out. Now there are some that didn't work out, and that has more to do with the provider than it has to do with the strategy. The strategy is simply buy a property that needs to be completely rehabbed, refurbished. It's you buy a property, as is, you take out a hard money loan to renovate the property, to gut it, to update. It, bring it up to speed. Or you can pay cash. So a lot of people say, Oh, I don't have the cash to pay for such a property. So they're the hard money loan is there. Or you could pay cash. Our recommendation, my recommendation, personally, is take out the hard money loan, because you have that extra layer of protection, that extra body who will make sure that you're not getting taken advantage of, because that's a problem that we've seen with BRRRR, where some of the providers, some of the sellers, they'll sell the property, and then they just disappear after that. And we don't want that to happen. We want the rehab to actually get done, because the real value is by doing the rehab, making the house nice, renting it out to a tenant, and then refinancing the property, because the home value is going to appreciate so much. In some cases, some of our investors got 100% appreciation from what they bought the property at, and they were able to use that equity, 100% of that equity into the down payment, into other fees, so they didn't have to pay anything out of pocket for the property. So that's the beauty of the BRRRR strategy. And like I said, what's most important? Because we've already done two web it. We've done a Memphis burr webinar, we've done a Cleveland burr webinar. Now we're doing a little rock BRRRR webinar, and I think this is the best burr out of all the burs that we've done. And the reason is because the team we're working with, they have a legitimate company operation. They have a property management division, they have a rehab division, they have a sales division, they have a management division. This is not like a one man show or a two person company trying to do all these rehabs all at once. So they're very here's the schedule. This is what we have to do, very accurate and so yes, their pro forma numbers aren't going to be as aggressive as what our investors have seen with previous BRRRR providers. But the problem with those aggressive numbers is that a lot of the providers, they overinflate those numbers, and they don't follow through, let's say, on the rehab, or they do the rehab, and the appraisal does not come back at an amount that met the proforma. So I'm just really excited about this, because Little Rock is a new market that we've entered into. We have not done a lot of Little Rock promotion, a lot of Little Rock property. So it's a new market, number one and number two, it's the team that's there. This is the best of the best team. And if somebody came to me and said, Hey, I want to do a bur. Where should I do it? You've got all these different webinars and podcasts on burrs. Where should I do it? I would say bur Little Rock is where you want to do it, because you're going to sleep way better at night, and the process is going to be way smoother than the others. Yes, the pro forma numbers, they're not going to be as appealing, or they're not going to be as outlandishly high as those other markets, but those other markets, Memphis, Cleveland, there's a reason why those numbers are so high. And like I said, it's this team in Little Rock, amazing team, Keith, I know you've had some calls with them. We interviewed the their head Alex on last week's podcast episode. He and I are going to be doing this upcoming webinar on BRRRR little rock this Thursday, and we hope to see everybody there go to gre webinars.com, gre webinars.com, right now to register for that webinar.   Keith Weinhold  43:14   It's this Thursday, a live event that you can attend from your own home. And the benefit of you attending live is you can have your questions answered in real time. You can hear other attendees questions, which will help educate you on this process. And yes, I don't know if this will ever happen again. We do have Alex leading the bur strategy in Little Rock. He's been doing this for 15 years. He's got his vetted, proven team and a great system for doing this, so that so much of it is all done for you. And   Naresh Vissa  43:47   one more thing that I'll say, because this has become very popular with our online special event attendees, they hear podcast episodes like this, and they say, Hey, I want to jump on this before the live event, because all those other people are going to be on, and I want to jump. So I want to share, or Keith, I'll let you share our link for people to just reach out to me if you want to schedule a meeting or just email me. Just reach out to me if you don't want to wait until the webinar, the online special event this Thursday, if you want to get a head start, please absolutely reach out to me.   Keith Weinhold  44:20   That's a great thought. You can go to GRE investment coach.com right now and get on the race's calendar so that you can have a free meeting. Any last thoughts about Thursday's big event?   Naresh Vissa  44:32   like I said, it's going to be Thursday evening. The time is going to be at 8pm Eastern Time. Thursday, 8pm eastern the webinar, online special event will last about two hours. Our listeners, our followers, love these online events because they're highly interactive. We get everybody involved. They're fun, and the reason why they last two hours is because the people who attend are having such a good time. Them that they want it to last that long. I remember a long time ago when we used to do these online events, and they'd only last 30 or 40 minutes, and then that was the end. But now our file loves them so much. I think if you've never attended one of our online special events, you'll definitely want to attend this, because it is the timing is perfect before all these rate cuts, as the housing supply inventory is at a 12 month high. So the timing is is really good. The incentives are excellent. And like I said, we know interest rates are going to be slashed sometime next year, so you can always refinance later, but but getting in at these prices is going to be a true gift. So gre webinars.com, to register for this online special event.   Keith Weinhold  45:52   We are all looking forward to it this coming Thursday. Narration, it's been great having you back on the show.    Naresh Vissa  45:57   Thanks, Keith.    Keith Weinhold  45:58   Yeah. Fruitful in house chat, as always, with one of our investment coaches, Naresh, that's how you can leave as little as 10% down on an income property. When you do that, cash out refi with the burr strategy, you'll get in at today's lower prices, they tend to be 140 to 160k in Little Rock, Arkansas. You'll lock in this year's rates with that low price, with the BRRRR acronym, meaning buy, renovate, rent, refinance, repeat. Well, that refi is a little ways down the road after your initial purchase. Longer term, if interest rates go up, you'll be glad that you got today's rates. And if interest rates go down, which many expect, then you'll refi. The only thing bigger than the next Fed interest rate decision or the naming of a new Fed chair is Thursday's GRE live event itself, get ready. Really, the event presentation typically takes an hour or less. The rest of the time is your questions and conversations, so show up from the comfort of your own home, maybe with a beverage this Thursday, and since it's in the evening, probably not a stimulant, maybe a yerba mate, besides seeing real life case studies and understanding how the burst strategy works, how to optimize it and the mistakes to avoid, expect access to available Little Rock burr properties, actionable opportunities. Should you so choose? Sign Up Free at gre webinars.com Until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.   Unknown Speaker  47:50   Nothing on this show should be considered specific personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  48:14   You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info, oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access and it's got pay walls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers. It's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters. And I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate video course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text gre 266, 866. While it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text, gre 266, 866,   Keith Weinhold  49:30   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com  

Register here for the live online event to learn about ‘Unlocking BRRRR Deals in Little Rock on Thursday, July 17th at 8PM Eastern. Keith discusses the competitive nature of short-term rentals (STRs) and the need for hosts to offer luxury amenities to attract guests. Long time investing pro, Alex, joins us to cover the BRRRR strategy in Little Rock, Arkansas, an investor-advantaged market, emphasizing its low property taxes and stable cash flow. They explain the BRRRR process, including: buying, renovating, renting, refinancing, and repeating.  The strategy allows investors to scale their portfolios with minimal initial capital, offering a 0% management fee in year one and 4% in year two.  Resources: Register here for the live online event to learn about ‘Unlocking BRRRR Deals in Little Rock on Thursday, July 17th at 8PM Eastern. Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/561 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE’ to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai    Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, anymore when you own short term rentals like Airbnbs and vrbos, you are in an all out arms race competing to provide amenities like never before. Then what happens when you take the popular burr real estate strategy and overlay it with one of the most investor advantaged markets in all of America. It's a lucrative opportunity. You'll see how and why today on get rich education.    Keith Weinhold  0:32   Mid south home buyers, I mean, they're total pros, with over two decades as the nation's highest rated turnkey provider, their empathetic property managers use your ROI as their North Star. So it's no wonder that smart investors just keep lining up to get their completely renovated income properties like it's the newest iPhone. They're headquartered in Memphis and have globally attractive cash flows, an A plus rating with the Better Business Bureau, and now over 5000 houses renovated their zero markup on maintenance. Let that sink in, and they average a 98.9% occupancy rate, while their average renter stays more than three and a half years. Every home they offer has brand new components, a bumper to bumper, one year warranty, new 30 year roofs. And wait for it, a high quality renter. Remember that part and in an astounding price range, 100 to 180k I've personally toured their office and their properties in person in Memphis. Get to know mid south enjoy cash flow from day one. Start yourself right now at mid southhomebuyers.com that's mid southhomebuyers.com   Speaker 1  1:58   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  2:14   Welcome to GRE from North Conway, New Hampshire to North port, Florida and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and this is get rich education, happy July, the second half of the year. And my favorite month of the year is your Airbnb fancy enough, because anymore STRS short term rentals have gotten so competitive that hosts treat their properties like white lotus level hotels. Now, STRS were never passive, but they become even less so it is active income. Once upon a time, Airbnb hosts could just sort of drop a few colorful throw pillows on their fold out couch and make a killing. But no more those days are so far gone. The STR game has changed drastically. I mean, you used to be able to list a basic home with generic furniture that you got at Costco, minimal amenities, no Wi Fi, and still get it booked, but today, it will sit empty unless you offer more than just a place to sleep. You have to build an experience for Airbnb guests. Now, increasingly, hosts are doing things like adding outdoor kitchens, arcade machines, putting greens, even basketball. And now, though these upgrades do cost a lot up front, they can pay off. These amenity types can double your nightly rate, but they come with more responsibility and more to maintain. I mean, more guests are expecting a flawless experience. The trend is that Airbnbs are becoming full scale hospitality operations, and if you don't treat it like one, you're going to fall behind. So simply having a nice house that just no longer cuts it, running a short term rental today is nothing like it was even two or three years ago. You used to be able to stand out with a decent bed and colorful throw prolos, but now guests are basically comparing your place to boutique hotels. Hosts are deeply investing in design, forward furniture, layered lighting and featuring spaces that some market as what they call moments like cozy reading corners in these luxurious bathroom setups, adding things like welcome guides and even complete brand identities with a proper. Name and even a logo and a story to give the place some personality, even writing up a history for your property, even if it's not that historic. Now, these sorts of tactics, they actually do, seem to work. Guests will give you more bookings, better reviews, and guests even share the space on social media like it's somewhat of a lifestyle destination now sometimes STR hosts, they team with these other platforms to add welcome champagne in ice buckets on site, sommeliers, private chefs, daily, housekeeping on demand. 24/7 textable concierges, heated plunge pools and other amenities through you partnering with some of these platforms and these upgrades don't come cheap. The publication called the playbook, they featured an STR in Sag Harbor, New York, where the property owner invested $85,000 into overhauling the landscaping and adding a James Turrell Inspired LED light installation. But overall, these improvements boost rental revenue by an average of 40% over what the property was collecting previously. All right, so this is a case study now, though, this STR trend of offering deep hospitality and luxury amenities has turned into more of a job and less about passive income. You know, really, this is free market capitalism, because this is competition to see who can provide the best service at the lowest price, but that's what it is. So this is making real estate less of a good and more of a service. Short term rentals soaring supply, day rate compression and AI driven pricing tools. That means that the just this all nice house with good photos thing that no longer cuts it. It is an amenities arms race now, and of course, this is a national trend. It doesn't mean that it's happening absolutely everywhere. In some places, hosts are able to charm guests simply with something like a freshly baked loaf of banana bread, but the consensus is whether they spend a little or a lot, Airbnb hosts unanimously say that they've got to work harder in order to keep guests happy. It's become more of a business and less of a side hustle than it used to be. You've got more hosts leaning into higher upfront investments because they know guests will pay for a sort of turnkey, Instagrammable experience. And this really is a classic early adopter issue, just like a lot of things, Airbnb launched in 2007 by the way, so this sort of first wave of Airbnb hosts back around 2012 to 2015 they were riding a blue ocean back then. There was virtually no competition. There weren't any standards, and there were plenty of bookings, and that made a lot of hosts pretty fat and happy. But that's not where we are now, really. The bottom line is that in many markets, short term rentals have transitioned from partial passivity to all out hospitality. That's the Airbnb arms race. The average Airbnb nightly rate for North America. Do you care to venture a guess at the average nightly rate? It is approximately $216 per night, and that right there is up 26% from 2020 so it is not up as much as house prices over that five year period from 2020 really, the Airbnb rate is up about as much as the long term rental rate.    Keith Weinhold  8:58   While we're talking numbers a quarter recently ended. Let's hit on our asset class rundown. What's happened to home prices in the past year? Well, when you aggregate all these sources, Zillow, Freddie, Mac case, Shiller, FHFA, in totality, home prices are up 2% single family rents are up 3% apartment rates are down 1% due to their oversupply. The 30 year mortgage rate was 6.9% a year ago, and it's 6.8 now. CPI inflation is 2.4% expressed in year to date terms. Now the SP5 100 is up 5% in the first half of this year, ending near 6200 the dollar is down. That means that it takes more of them to buy gold, which is over $3,300 an ounce, gold is up 27% just from the start of this year, and the oil price is still depressed in the 60s. Per dollar for a barrel, Bitcoin still strong, ending the quarter at 106kthat's your asset class rundown, which we do about quarterly.    Keith Weinhold  9:57   Hey, I really enjoyed meetingside. Of you on this year's terrific real estate guys Investor Summit at sea was concluded about a week ago. It was two days on land in Miami, followed by a week of conferences and fun aboard a Caribbean cruise ship. I really got to meet you and get to know you, because we had nine days together, and as one of the faculty members, I hosted a table at dinner every night, and each night the attendees rotated around to my table, so I got to meet a lot of you and really get to know you, and you got to know me. Yeah, it was as interesting for me to meet you in person, perhaps, as it was for you to meet me, because I like to hear what you're doing in real estate, investing, in everything else. I gave a main stage presentation that was almost an hour of all me, all GRE and also served on five different panel discussions. Oh, it's such a unique event. Get this, I was kind of dressed up to give my main stage presentation, which so many of you, by the way, told me afterwards, that that was your favorite presentation of them all, all week long, because each faculty member made a main stage presentation. But what I want to tell you is, just a few hours after I presented, on the cruise ship, I was shirtless in the water throwing a football around at the beach in St Thomas Virgin Islands. What an event. Fantastic to meet a number of you in person. So far today, I hope what I've shared with you has been informative. Next. It's something informative and really actionable that you can make lucrative that's next. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education.    Keith Weinhold  11:45   The same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your pre qual and even chat with President Caeli Ridge personally, while it's on your mind, start at Ridge lendinggroup.com. That's Ridge lendinggroup.com.    Russell Gray  12:16   You know what's crazy your bank is getting rich off of you, the average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I started putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns, and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading. It's pretty low risk because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. You can invest as little as 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back, no weird lock ups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds just sitting there doing nothing, check it out. Text family to 66866, to learn about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund again. Text family to 66866.   Russell Gray  13:30   Hi. This is Russell Gray, co host of real estate guys radio show, and you're listening to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream. You Keith,   Keith Weinhold  13:38   welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, we're talking to a guest not only about an investor advantaged market, but when you overlay a certain strategy with it, this can be highly lucrative for investor returns, and we're with a long time investing pro Alex, welcome onto the show.    Alex Craig  14:04   Hi Keith, thank you.    Keith Weinhold  14:05   Well talking about top US cashflowing market, let's get right to it. Tell us about yours.   Alex Craig  14:11   Little Rock, Arkansas. It's a market that we've been in since 2012. I personally invest there. I've got about 75 doors of multi family, single family. And the reason why it works is just cash flow. Over the years, we've had investors from around the country that have owned portfolios where maybe they're somewhere in Phoenix or Dallas, where they're kind of speculating. This is not a speculation market, and that's why it works for myself. It's consistent. It's very linear, and linear is a word that we use a lot to describe. And if you're going to be a cash flow investor, and that's why I'm in it, it's you want a linear market. You don't want ups or downs, and then you want to make sure it's a growing market too. And Little Rock checks all the boxes of what you would want in a stable cash flow environment market.   Keith Weinhold  14:57   And I think a lot of our investor listeners are. Already pretty keen on that. You get a high ratio of rent income to purchase price. You have laws that heavily favor landlords over tenants. But Alex, in today's environment, people are more conscious about rising operating expenses and higher mortgage expenses, and that's really one advantage that Arkansas can give right now, is with those low property taxes   Alex Craig  15:20   Keith,it's so interesting you mentioned that because I did have a conversation with a client of ours that had a property in another market that he had mentioned how his property taxes had gone up and gone up substantially, which that's to expect. I mean, after COVID, there was a lot of markets saw a huge boost, especially with markets that saw hedge funds come in. Hedge Funds, I believe, ruined a lot of markets, raised the prices. And another reason I like Little Rock, it flies under the radar. You think is Little Rock is a small market, but it's really not. It's, I mean, the population of the city is 250,000 but the metro area, which is a 50 mile radius around Little Rock, is much bigger. And the entire, not only the entire market, metro area, feeds off little rock, really, the entire state does too. But that being said, because it's floating under the radar, the property tax have remained low. They've taken a little bit of bump over the years, because the values steadily go up, but they started low anyway. So with operating costs of insurance, insurance has gone up for a lot of for my own properties in other markets, it's going up, and it's going up in Little Rock too. I mean, it's just the name of insurance, but property taxes have remained low. They've always been low, and that's really a big help as to why this market works for us.   Keith Weinhold  16:30   Talking about flying under the radar, you're talking about, therefore evading a lot of that hedge fund money. Tell us more about the market and some of those anchors and drivers.   Alex Craig  16:40   It's a blue collar town. You've got logistics. Is a market, or is a segment of the industry that has really come on strong over the last few years, Amazon has really put a footprint in the market. Healthcare is a huge, huge market, like I mentioned earlier, not only does the region feed off the direct to the entire state, it's the hub of healthcare for the entire state of Arkansas, of course, it's government. Government provides a lot of jobs. The good thing about government jobs is they're maybe not on a national level anymore, but on a local, state level, they're very it's hard to get let go from a government job, unless now, not on a federal level, but it's very steady, so a lot of steady blue collar jobs, and that's what you want for a strong resident base, especially in the type of properties and 1000 to $1,200 price range, you want those blue collar study growing jobs.   Keith Weinhold  17:31   Yes, you do have those there. It's funny. I'm smiling a bit because I used to be a state government employee, and there's just no way that they ever would have fired me. I was so protective I had to quit in order for them to have to replace me at that job. I'm wondering about the new supply that's come on, Alex, because a number of markets have added supply. I know, for example, that Redfin reports that little rock median home price appreciation is up 7.3% year over year, and with the dynamics going on in the market recently, that typically tells us that there hasn't been that much new supply added. Is that what's going on there?   Alex Craig  18:11   No, there hasn't been a lot of new supply. I just think with little rock and every other market, the mortgage rates have gone up. Home ownership is down during COVID. It was really hard to get an investment property. For what we did, sending out our list every week. It was basically send out our properties, people hitting send and not even knowing what they were reserving. Rates were just low, right? Everybody's jumping in. It was hard to get inventory. So now what we have is, you know, higher rates that scares some people off. It pushes some people out on the market, but it also creates opportunity. I feel like this is the easiest time I've been investing in real estate since 2007 that was the foreclosure crisis, Great Recession, and it was a lot of foreclosures on the market, and that's how I built a big chunk of my portfolio. But now it's just a matter of there's not as many people in it. So for us, there's just more acquisitions for us to go out and get. There's still distressed homes on the market where individuals don't want to hire a realtor, they just want all cash offers. They're ready to get rid of them, and that's where we step in. And without as much competition like I said, we kind of fly under the radar. I feel it creates more just supply inventory for us and for me as an investor, but also for our clients too   Keith Weinhold  19:23   with that in mind, and again, a lot of our audience is already on board, knowing that little rock in Arkansas is a good cash flow market with stable, long term fundamentals, but in order to make it more profitable, you've overlaid it with a certain strategy there in Little Rock. Tell us about that.    Alex Craig  19:45   So the BRRRR strategy, yes, it's able to work now because there's not as many buyers in the market. So basically, the way the burrs strategy works is we acquire a property. I'm just going to use very round, simple numbers for simple math makes it easier on me   Keith Weinhold  19:58   and we're talking the BRRRR. Strategy that's buy, renovate, rent, refinance, and repeat. Those are the five investor steps.   Alex Craig  20:07   correct. And so that's what we do, is we buy. Let's just say the B. Let's take the B, for example, we buy a home, and we buy it for 60,000 where I'm just talking like if I own the home, and then I put $20,000 into the deal. So now I'm all into it for 80,000 and you have to remember, there's some in between, cost of closing costs. I'm just talking just very general strategy. You buy it for 60, you put 20 into it, and all of a sudden you're in it for 80, and the value comes back at 100 so you're in it for 80% of the after repair value. Most Fannie Mae lenders will do 75% so if you purchase a house outright, you put 20% down, but if you are doing a refinance, you're able they'll do it at 75% so instead of buying a home and putting it down payment upfront, you're using equity in the deal. And that's what the burst strategy is, buy renovate. So we buy it, we renovate it, we refinance it, we rent it out, and then you repeat it. So it allows for investors to scale their portfolios quicker and stretch their money a little bit further. So if you've got, I've got $50,000 and I want to invest in real estate, if you purchase a home, you're bound by the down payment. Once you put that down payment, it's, I wouldn't call it sunk cost, but that money's gone for reinvesting. The burr model allows you to stretch that money a little bit further. Now, like I said, I gave pretty basic numbers to the deal, but that's what you're going for. Some equity in the deal, and that's what we're able to provide for ourselves and for our clients.   Keith Weinhold  21:38   So let's review that numbers on a little rock burp, making a $60,000 purchase with a pre renovated property. Then the investor puts another 20k into it for the renovation. So now they're all in for 80k and they get a 100k appraisal on that property, and then they can borrow, say, 75% of that there, that is the refi portion, the fourth letter of the BRRRR acronym. So therefore they've got 80k into it, and they got 75k back, meaning they would only have 5k into it, but maybe another 5k for closing costs, and now they only have 10k in to a 100k property. That's the appeal. That's what we're talking about here with the BRRRR   Alex Craig  22:22   strategy. I mean, you're exactly right. And as I mentioned, I use some really basic numbers, because when you're using, you know, 100,060 and 20 makes them very basic. It's pretty hard to find out a deal worth 100,000 these days, even when we started in the industry, 100,000 was a pretty cheap after pair value. Probably the mean value of the homes that we're dealing in is probably about 140 to 140 to 160 but same principle, based on those same logic that what we just talked about, I wouldn't say, you know, five or 10k out of pocket, but if you're talking about purchasing a deal with 25% down versus doing a bur you're probably going to be in it at 15% Out of pocket costs 10 to 15% as opposed to putting a down payment of 25% but the big thing is, you're getting money back, and you're not putting as much so just it's great for scale. I don't know if you'll talk about DSCR lending very much on your show, but that's something that a lot of our clients, and that does 80% so we have a lot of clients going that route now too.   Keith Weinhold  23:21   Okay, so you could do 80% with debt service coverage ratio loans, but to drop back in our example, to help be clear, the investor has 80k of their own skin in the game into the property, 60k for the purchase, 20k for the renovation, even though they only have 80k in it appraises for 100k that ARV, that after repair value. Why is the after repair value 100k when you only have 80k into it? Why is it more?   Alex Craig  23:49   that's based off comparable sales? So when you're in it at 80, and you're going to refinance it through a lender, they're going to send an appraiser out, and appraiser is going to pull comparable sales within that neighborhood. So just because you're in an 80 the appraiser is going to go pull three comps, very similar to that home. So if we're selling a three bedroom one bath, they're going to pull three comps at a three bedroom one bath, relatively the same size look, if it's got a carport, they're going to try to find three houses with the carport. So in theory, that's what they're doing. They're pulling comparable sales and developing new value based on recent sales.   Keith Weinhold  24:23   So it's that you have this knowledge to buy in neighborhoods and buy in certain sub markets, where, when you know that capital is added and renovations are made and a rehab period that they do tend to appraise for that value based on the comparables that are already there.   Alex Craig  24:40   Yeah. I mean, if we were to take the same house at 60,000 and didn't do any work, he would then say, well, you've got some comparables here versus 100 but you could never sell this home for 100 these are the things you have to do, and that's what we do during the first R the renovate of the acronym is to renovate the home to the condition that the. Appraisers feel that are comparable for the neighborhood, and that's a real important part, is comparable to the neighborhood. We could go in and put in a Jacuzzi tub and grain of countertops. We actually, we do put a lot of grain in, because we get it so cheap. But you could go in and fix it up to the nines, but it's not going to appraise for any more than the others, because the appraiser would say, we over improved it. So we improve it to what we know, what the kind of the standard for the neighborhood? Because you could over improve these things for sure and not get that return on that investment.   Keith Weinhold  25:28   That is a great answer. There is a specific improvement target that you know that needs to be hit. Tell us more about this burr process, because to an out of area investor, it can sound pretty intimidating if they had to manage contractors remotely themselves,   Alex Craig  25:43   there definitely is a need to have a team on the ground that you trust, that you feel comfortable with, and that's what we've done. I've been doing it in multiple markets for myself since 2007 and we built into a business model in 2010 like I said, expanded Little Rock in 2012 and we've been doing this for 15 years now for other investors. So we've got that name and that reputation of taking care of our investors, that's the important part. And we do see a lot of investors get burned, because you can find a realtor to go to help you find deals, but usually the realtor relationship is thesis to end. It's okay, I found you a deal, but then there's so many other things afterwards, and the renovations, where I see so many people get burned, and you know, we manage approximately 1200 homes between two markets, and that's where I see when property owners come to us, they've been burned the most. It's like they've paid somebody $50,000 they didn't finish the job, they didn't do what they say they're going to do. So the renovation that we're the team on the ground, we've got a in House Project Manager, we've got a network of subcontractors. We tend to act as the contractor, subbing things out. We've got in house property management. We've got all the tools, but it's really between both. In the markets in which I operate. I've got about 30 employees within property management, renovations, acquisitions, so the team on the ground is and then the back in the property management part is the long, ongoing accountability. So if something doesn't work out, that's the way we said it. If we say it's going to rent for 1200 and we rent it out for 900 Well, we really got a big egg on our face. You do a few of those, and that's how you don't stay in business anymore. And there's, and I like to say, about every five years the market corrects itself into getting the wrong players out of the business. COVID was super easy, easy to find deals, easy to sell deals. But once the market changed and it became a little more competitive and rates rose, that's the people that have been around for the long time, been in it for the long haul, that stick around. They've got the established business model and their reputation. So every five years, a good correction in the market eliminates those bad players.   Keith Weinhold  27:47   So you have this vetted, proven in play system that investors can get into besides just identifying the property, it comes with that system, those contractors or that investor just has one point of contact with you there for updates on the renovation.   Alex Craig  28:03   Yeah. I mean, I feel like we know these neighborhoods. I like I feel we know these neighborhoods like the back of our hand. We've been investing in them for a decade plus, and we know the areas you want to be in, the areas you don't want to be in. And we have a lot of investors will call us either they already own the property or they're a current client, and they'll say, Hey, I could get this deal for 30,000 and it's worth 100 and I'm like, Well, that sounds too good to be true, especially if it's on the open market. If it was that good of a deal, it's already gone. We just know the market, where to be. We know what to pay. We could, pretty much just through our experience, identify a house we know probably within about five to 10% before we even dive into comparable sales of what it's worth. We could walk through a house within probably about three to five minutes and peg the renovation costs probably within about 10% now we still order an inspection, and that's where we uncover the things that we can't see, that maybe there's a bunch of rotted out joist or a foundation problem that we didn't see. So, but there's things aside we could walk through and we pretty much know, okay, it needs a roof that's 7000 it needs an air conditioner that's six flooring, two. So that's the expertise that we bring and like. So then the management part of it, on the back end, that kind of ties it all together with accountability.   Keith Weinhold  29:22   And I know that your typical project renovation cost tends to be about 25k just for simplicity, we use 20k in that example, and your completion times are shorter than others that have inexperienced crews. So tell us about that typical renovation time. Alex.   Alex Craig  29:39   every day we're accomplishing 500 so 25,000 divided by 500 comes to 50 days, 50 days. So we'll knock that out in about 50 days. And we just have a large network of subcontractors that we've been working with for years. If you weren't in the business, I think that'd be really hard to accomplish, and there's just a lot that. Goes into it. I mean, the renovating the homes, it's the once, it's the worst, it's the hardest thing that we do. For sure, it's definitely the most scheduling, but it's where, if you don't know what you're doing, a great deal turns into, how do I get out of this?   Keith Weinhold  30:15   Right, absolutely. Now, in our example, we used where an investor puts 60k into it for the purchase to start with, because I see the burst strategy is a good strategy. If someone doesn't have a lot of capital, like they would for maybe a new build property, can one even finance that initial purchase amount?   Alex Craig  30:35   Yeah, so private lending. So that's the part that makes if you've only got 50 grand to facilitate this entire process, and you want to try to repeat it as many times as you can. 50,000 would not be enough just to pay cash. So yes, we have private lending. We set that up. Sometimes we lend it ourselves. Sometimes we outsource it to some of our strategic partners, but we'll lend the money to buy and renovate the home. A typical what that loan would look like it's about 3.3 points of loan origination. So if you've got an $80,000 loan, that's $2,400 most lenders do require for you to bring that up front, and now you're in it for an $80,000 loan at 12% which, five years ago, that sounded crazy to borrow at 12% but with for private lending, that's not bad at all, especially you want to get in and out of it quickly. So if we're renovating the home, and you know, 50 days, if you're already pre approved with your lender, and they have all your documents by the time we finish renovating the home, the appraisals lined up, and you could be in and out of these private loans in about 90 days. That love that depends on the lending side, that you're giving the lender what they need. But ideally you want to be in these things about 90 to 120 days. So $80,000 loan at 12% that $800 a month. So if you're in it for 90 days, 800 times 320, 700 plus the loan origination fee. But that's how you do it. That's the you're just borrowing money to finance the acquisition, the rehab and the refinance   Keith Weinhold  32:03   that is an option for you if you don't have the cash here to come in with these burr strategy properties. Alex, tell us more about it. Really, what I would like to know is, when an investor gets their appraisal, their after repair value, how many want to sell it for a profit, and how many want to hold it with a tenant for long term income   Alex Craig  32:26   so far, zero. Want to sell it for a profit. If you're all in it for add and then you're selling for 100 once you sell it, there are other fees involved. You got to hire a realtor. Right now is a great time to hold it's a slow real estate market. I don't think Little Rock from an aspect, is where home ownership is down. I think that's a nationwide thing. So I think if you're going into this, you certainly want to look at it from perspective. This is a buy and hold. I don't think this is the best market to get into to buy something. Flip it with a in the example, we use a $20,000 margin with buyer concessions, realtor commissions. That's a lot of work involved. And let's just say it did work out. You sold it for 100 but you had to pay 2% closing in an agent fee, and you got some holding cost. Let's just say you netted 8000 that might be good for a six month return, but I feel like there's a lot of risk. I feel like our job as what we do for our clients, is to minimize risk. So someone came and said, Hey, I want to flip it. I would say, Well, I don't think it's the best market for it right now. I think you want to get into this buy and hold.   Keith Weinhold  33:29   Yes, Alex has been doing this for a long time, and he's a specific expert right there in that local market. Buy and hold is a strategy that most likely makes sense. And he also strongly recommends pay cash if possible, instead of using that 12% short term private lending option, like he mentioned before, because that can cut out about four to 5k worth of transactional cost. And then if you do buy and hold what Alex and his company offer there in Little Rock is essentially a cash flow boost, 0% management fee in year one and only 4% in year two. So that gives you some extra cash flow runway as well. And Alex, before I ask you if you have any last thoughts, I want to announce to you the audience, that we have a live event virtually next week, on July 17, at 8pm eastern for Little Rock BRRRRproperties that Alex is CO hosting with our investment coach, Naresh, where you can find these bird deals in this cash flowing market. In Little Rock you'll see actual bird deals recently completed with full breakdowns of their purchase prices, sort of these case studies, where you can see some real numbers and what the rehab budgets are and what the actual timelines were, and what the refi outcomes were like, and explore BRRRR ready properties that are currently available to own, if you so choose, on this upcoming live event that you can attend from the comfort of your own home. Learn the full process, from acquisition to renovation to property management to the financing of them, and again, everything is all handled by local experts, so that you don't have to live with the nightmare of remotely managing contractors, which I couldn't imagine doing. So whether you're a first time investor or you're scaling your portfolio, this is your chance to get boots on the ground, insight and a proven road map to burr success and really one of the most accessible markets in the country. Again, Alex here is CO hosting the event along with GRE investment coach, Naresh Vissa. It is a free, live virtual event again next week, Thursday, July 17, at 8pm Eastern. Sign up is open now at gre webinars.com it ought to be great. Alex, teaming with local experts like you has been of real benefit to our audience. Do you have any last thoughts about either Little Rock or burrs or the events that you're going to co host with our audience next week?   Alex Craig  35:57   So here's my last thought, as you were, you know, kind of concluding and I was reviewing what we had talked about. And one of the questions we get sometimes it's a fair question. It's like, well, if this is such a great deal, why don't you keep all the deals? So we hear that from time to time, and the simple answer is, we do. We do keep a lot of deals, and we're buying more real estate now, like I said, I feel like it's the easiest time to get into real estate. So we do, we do keep a lot. We're building a very large portfolio right now, but the house flipping to investors is just another business model that we have. And Property Management too. And we love property management, and we love building investor relationships. We've had a lot of investors we've had been with us since day one that we've developed really tight relationships with. So yes, we do keep a lot of the properties, and we sell properties too, and we and helps us build our management company, which you don't hear too many people say this, but we actually love property management. That's a hard thing to love, but we actually like it.   Keith Weinhold  36:54   That is more weird than Tom wheelwright loving taxes, perhaps, but Right. But I want to deal with somebody that really loves what they're doing, especially when they're protecting our asset and probably more importantly, when it comes to property management, protecting our time. So that's right, Alex, well, our viewers and listeners are really looking forward to it next week, again, that live event Thursday, July 17, at 8pm Eastern is something that you can sign up for now at grewebinars.com. Alex, we're looking forward to it next week.   Alex Craig  37:27   Bye, Keith, thank you.   Keith Weinhold  37:34   Oh yeah. Terrific overview on why the burr strategy can be so profitable. And our event next week. Now, when you rent your primary residence, which you would typically do in a high cost area, and then you own rental property elsewhere, typically a low cost area, do you know what that's called? Yeah, there is a name for that. Last week we spoke to two listener guests in California that are doing just that. That is called rentvesting. And yes, Little Rock is surely a popular low cost market for rentvesting. I have been on the ground myself in Little Rock with Alex's associate to do an on the ground tour of properties. There you want to tap into a system where you've got the guiding hand of both experience and belief. That's what you're doing here. As like he said, Alex personally owns 75 doors there. That is belief, and he's been doing this for out of area investors for 15 years. That's the experience part real proof of concept at next week's event, you'll be introduced to this same system where you can lean on their team for acquisition, renovation and management. Little Rock has an MSA population of about 770,000 but I think more importantly today, savvy investors are conscientious of keeping their expenses down, and for good reason, since they've been up all over the place. Now, the purchase price is 140 to 160k for these BRRRR optimized single family rentals. Remember that we used 100k just for ease of an example there, usually when you buy income property, you're really in at close to 25% of the purchase price when you add up the down payment and closing costs, but this way, you're in for just about half of that at 10 to 15% another low expense is that property tax, statewide, Arkansas Property Tax is just 610 of 1% so that's half the national average. And then your management expense is definitely going to be low for the first two years, because it is 0% in year one and 4% in year two. And these are properties that you can actually be pretty proud of. You'll learn more about this. Scope of work with a renovation on the webinar, often granite countertops in the kitchen is a live, remote event. So this means that you can have any of your questions answered in real time. Should you have them? As you can imagine, demand is high for these properties, and this is a chance to get connected directly with the team that makes it happen. We might never get Alex on an event like this again, and is co hosted with our GRE investment coach, Naresh. It's next week. It's free, Thursday, July 17, at 8pm Eastern, 5pm Pacific. Sign up now, or your future self might not be able to forgive yourself. You can do that now at grewebinars.com Until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.   Speaker 3  40:56   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  41:19   You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info, oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access and it's got pay walls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers. It's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter, you also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now just text. GRE to 66866, while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text, gre to 66866   Keith Weinhold  42:35   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com.

Keith discusses the evolution of the real estate market over the past five years, highlighting a 43% price surge from March 2020 to June 2022 due to low mortgage rates, remote work, and government stimulus. By 2024, single-family home prices stabilized, but apartment values dropped by 30%.  Mortgage rates have remained around 6-7.5% for 20 months, with national home prices rising 2% in the past year.  We introduce two listener guests: Josh Fang, a 28-year-old investor who bought five properties using his income from a mortgage loan officer job, and Nate O'Neil, an experienced investor who leveraged his corporate job to fund his real estate portfolio.  Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/560 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE’ to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai  Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, over the past five years, the real estate market has changed forever. So what are you supposed to do now? Then I talked to two GRE listener guests back to back. Here's some relatable stories this week on get rich education.    Mid south home buyers. I mean, they're total pros, with over two decades as the nation's highest rated turnkey provider, their empathetic property managers use your ROI as their North Star. So it's no wonder that smart investors just keep lining up to get their completely renovated income properties like it's the newest iPhone. They're headquartered in Memphis, and have globally attractive cash flows, an A plus rating with a better business bureau and now over 5000 houses renovated. There's zero markup on maintenance. Let that sink in, and they average a 98.9% occupancy rate, while their average renter stays more than three and a half years. Every home they offer has brand new components, a bumper to bumper, one year warranty, new 30 year roofs. And wait for it, a high quality renter. Remember that part and in an astounding price range, 100 to 180k I've personally toured their office and their properties in person in Memphis. Get to know Mid South. Enjoy cash flow from day one. Start yourself right now at mid southhomebuyers.com that's mid south homebuyers.com.   Speaker 1  1:48   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education. You   Keith Weinhold  1:58   Keith, welcome to GRE from Augusta Maine to Augusta Georgia and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are back inside get rich education if you got trapped in a cave back in 2020, and then you came above ground into the sunlight of 2025 and wondered what happened to the real estate investment market over the last five years. Here's the answer, and what it means to you, even if you weren't trapped in a cave, and I sure hope you didn't have to fight off a bat colony either. During the pandemic housing boom of 2020, to 2022 housing demand soared, in fact, from March of 2020, to June of 2022, prices surged a staggering 43% and rents ballooned too. And that was all amidst a few things, ultra low mortgage rates, a remote work boom and government stimulus. And for many, this unlocked Americans work from anywhere arbitrage. High earners were able to keep their income in, say, New York City or LA, pack up their laptop and head for state income tax free havens like Tampa or Nashville, and builders could not keep up. See housing supply, stock is not as elastic as demand. It's like steering a cruise ship. It doesn't turn out a dime. Inventory was drained, and you know, we had a full on housing supply crash that dipped to its Nadir in February of 2022 but just after that, all types of interest rates spiked later in 2022 to help stifle rising inflation, and what that did is that that quickly quelled homeowner affordability. Return to Office mandates began to gain momentum. National housing demand pulled back a near 180 was quickly underway. Sales volume tanked, and that put a lot of people in the industry out of business, realtors, mortgage loan officers, even furniture companies out of business by 2024 prices in the single family to fourplex space stabilized just with a slow growth rate, but apartment values lost as much as 30% from 2022 to 24 due to devastating interest rate resets under shorter term loans, and meanwhile, the income required to buy a modest starter home rose from 49k in 2020 to 101k last year. That's pretty NAR and the term forever renter became both a meme and a. Reality, and since construction, efforts to build have been uneven, apartment supply actually exceeds demand in a lot of markets, and over in the one to four unit space by adding inventory, there's now 30% more available year over year, but it remains under supplied nationally, especially like I've discussed in the Northeast and Midwest, where building has been meager to completely non existent. That's why it can still feel impossible to find a house in much of Ohio or New Jersey, but you can rent an apartment in Austin, Texas faster than you can get a Wendy's drive through order. Mortgage rates have now stayed in this same range of six to seven and a half for 20 months, and national home prices are up just about 2% in the past year. Now, when Trump began his second term in January of 2025 markets got giddy with business friendly optimism, but this Trump bump that reversed fast when he slapped half the planet with tariffs housing demand cooled again, because no one buys a house when they feel like their job might vanish, alright? So amidst all of that. How do you adjust your strategy with what's changed over the past five years? Well, real estate still pays five ways, and since you're not betting it all on price growth like you would be with most other asset classes, this way, you've always got a side to play with. Affordability down now, rental demand is heating up. With more inventory on the market for you to purchase, there are more motivated sellers, especially those shiny build to rent homes. You do still have to deal with mortgage rates that are higher than they were four or five years ago. Refinance on the rate dips if there's low inflation rates fall if there's high inflation, well, then your debt arose faster. So this is what I mean about you having the ability to play both sides today, and this is big, the number of renter households are at a record high, and they're rising. Landlords are giving fewer concessions. Increasingly, they hold the cards in the single family rental space and annual rent growth is expected to heat up from its current zero to 3% Well, what is next? Short term housing value should stay stable, but not sore, and don't count on a big mortgage rate drop at all for the rest of the year long term, expect more inflation in strong demographic demand. Those things are almost certainties, and that's the good part for real estate investors. So really the overall market report card today, let's grade it out in a report card, sellers are doing just okay. Buyers are strained. First time home buyers are in the worst, the roughest shape. I mean, they grade out at an F single family rental landlords are in good shape because people that want to buy a single family home can't, so they rent apartment landlords, they are strained, and renters are holding steady. They're doing pretty well until steeper rent increases kick in. So really, the bottom line here is that it's been a more tumultuous five years than usual. Housing demand lapse supply and now it's coming closer back into balance today, home prices are stable, the amount of buyers are waning, and the hordes of renters are growing. And where are we today? Well, earlier this month, our president called our Fed chair a numbskull.    Donald Trump  8:56   If we cut our interest by one point for years, we save 300 billion. If we cut it by two points, we save because it's pretty equivalent we're going to save, we're going to spend 600 billion a year. 600 billion because of one numb skull that sits here. I don't see enough reason to cut the rates now.   Keith Weinhold  9:21   oh dear leaving you with a little knee slapper on the five year summary there. Look poor and middle class people feel like everything is expensive. That's because they pay for everything with money they've exchanged their time for. That means they feel like they're paying for everything with their life, because they are and that's exactly why money feels like a scarce resource. Instead, real estate investors pay for things according to what our assets are producing for us and what other people's money is producing for us. And that's why we can pay for what we want, and money feels like an abundant resource, not a scarce one. That's what today's two listener guests discovered somewhere along their path, fueled by this show. Now sometimes I answer your listener questions here on the show when you write into us at get rich education.com/contact, other times, I bring listener guests right here onto the show. That's what we're doing today. Today's both happen to be based in California. The first guest is a young investor, and the second guest more experienced. These were just recorded. Understand they aren't professional speakers. And also, if you bear with a few early audio difficulties with our first guest, you're going to be rewarded with some relatable takeaways. Our first listener guest, Josh Fang, started listening to the get rich education podcast as a college student in 2016 or 17. He first heard episode 84 that's when Robert Kiyosaki made his first appearance here. That episode was called the rich don't work for money. Then he went back to Episode One and listened to them all, 560 episodes. Now let's meet him.   This week's GRE listener guest is a 28 year old real estate investor based out of Irvine, California. That's SoCal, and he has already reached what he calls semi work, optional status, fantastic. He's been a GRE listener since 2017 that was at age 20 when he was a junior in college. The GRE podcast inspired him to become a mortgage loan officer, and he's become a top performer at doing that, originating loans after graduating college. He used the money from that mortgage loan officer job starting at age 22 to buy five income properties, two through mid south home buyers and three elsewhere. By the way. Again, he's 28 now. GRE quite literally shaped his adult life, and having enough passive income to fully retire is pretty much his only goal. Now he's got passion for talking financial freedom through smart borrowing, strategic thinking and action over perfection. Oh, I love that. Hey, welcome to GRE. Josh Fang, thank you for having me. I really appreciate it here on the show, I talk about borrowing and lending a good bit, because if you're gonna make something of yourself, you need to leverage the efforts of others. So tell us about how you got your first job in the mortgage industry and how it set the foundation for your investing journey. Josh,   Josh Fang  12:31   when I graduated, it was really rough. I had a business degree which didn't really open up too many doors. At that time, I couldn't find a job for six months, I was just applying everywhere that I could. Now keep in mind this entire time, I'm looking for a job. I'm listening to your podcast, and you know, how can I the income and the money to purchase some rental properties for some passive income? And one company responded to my resume for a mortgage company. So I was able to get an interview, and I actually got the job by quoting, you know, mortgage guidelines that I learned from your podcast. Your Podcast, such as, for an FHA loan, you need three and a half percent down. For a conventional you need 20% down, just the most basic of the most basic mortgage guidelines. And actually was able to land a job, and in the very beginning, they start you off pretty much. I mean, as a telemarketer, it's pretty rough, long hours, you work weekends, I was making $17.48 at the time per hour, and with that basic income, the 17.48 an hour, I actually was able to buy my first rental property without even the two years work history. And the way I did that was by using my college degree as work history, because there is actually a guideline to where, if you have degree that is in the same field as where you work, it does actually be counting work history. And it was really funny at the time, I was living with my parents, another document that I needed to go through underwriting. I needed a letter from my dad, a signed letter from my dad saying I didn't pay rent because I was living at home. And off that 17.48, an hour, I was able to buy my first rental property. And from mid south home buyers, everyone there was so great. They were so helpful in helping me through the loan process, through selecting a property, and I was able to close. And the time that I bought my first rental I was only 22 years old.   Keith Weinhold  14:20   This is remarkable on a few levels, with just those few lines, about three and a half percent down FHA or 20% down conventional that sounded compelling enough for someone to want to give you an opportunity and then off that modest starting wage, how that really helped you accumulate to buy income property and yeah, when you're buying in those investor advantage places, those prices are low, but that's still pretty remarkable that you were able to do that. So talk to us some more about that, buying your first rental property at age 22 surely younger than most people about that process and the mindset and really that leap of faith that it takes Josh because most people are not doing this.   Josh Fang  15:00   Yeah, absolutely. And I think I had a really big leg up in terms of mindset, because I was starting to listen to your podcast when I was so young, when you're young and you're growing up and you're a young adult in college, you know, you hear from your teachers, your parents, your friends, older people, and they say, oh, invest in the stock market. Buy a primary residence to live in. And the big thing that I learned is I don't live in the same world as the world that my parents grew up in, and I can't invest the same as well. Great point there's, I live in Southern California. The medium house price of where I live in, in the city of Irvine, is $2 million yeah, that's ridiculous. I would never, ever be able to purchase a primary residence out here, and buying stocks are at all times highs. I mean, that's arguable, but I think stocks are quite overfit. So investing there didn't make too much sense. And what you always talked about in terms of building a second flow of income, having that be passive to where I don't need to work regularly, is what really motivated me to move towards that. And in terms of making the first step, I think the most important thing by far, is just setting a goal, saying at least for myself, it was, hey, I want to own a property. I want to provide safe, affordable housing to a tenant, and I want to be able to make money off of that, to where I don't need to do something physically for it every single day. And then after that, it just about taking the steps. The first things first is I reached out to some of the house providers. In that case, it was mid south home buyers, gave them a call, spoke to them, say, Hey, can I please be put on your list? Perfect. Then it was just continuing the work, doing more research, continue listening to your podcast, learn tidbits here and there, lots of Googling, lots of Googling, looking up terms that I didn't understand when I read through the analysis of the property. Hey, what does this mean? What does that mean, Googling it, learning one step at a time. And then when it came time and I was actually receiving properties that I could buy, it was about getting the mortgage, and it was about, hey, let's just move one step at a time. Okay, today I need to get these documents, and the next step, I need to get these documents. And before you knew it, I was signing with a notary closing on my first property,    Keith Weinhold  17:10   the autodidactic approach, meaning the self taught approach, with some assistance from my show. But yeah, oftentimes listening to the show can be the stimulus to make you want to learn more, probably, because I talk about the why for real estate, and if you don't know your why, you won't care about how So Josh, are you doing something that some people do in high cost areas, like you live in in SoCal? Are you renting your own place? And then you provide rental housing to others outside your own area. In investor advantage places is that your setup?   Josh Fang  17:44   100% where I live in Irvine, it is extremely, extremely low crime. Everything's a planned unit development. It is beautiful out here. There's trees, there's lots of different foods from different cultures. I absolutely love living here. The only issue is is it's ridiculously expensive. I live in a very nice luxury apartment complex, and I pay of extremely high rent that normal people probably wouldn't be able to pay. But rather than coming out of my pocket, I use the cash flow for my rentals to pay for my rent over here. So it's kind of like I'm building equity, even though I'm just renting, and I get to live the life that I want to live, where I want to live it, while still being able to invest the proper way. In my opinion   Keith Weinhold  18:26   that's beautifully said and well thought out. And part of doing that, Josh is this borrowing money, which I think to lay people, is scary, and for someone in their 20s to borrow money, that could really bring a good bit of trepidation, because that goes against the grain of what so many people do. But of course, we talk around here about how borrowing money like you have for your rental properties in other states outside California really is not something to fear. So can you tell us more about how you approach that mindset?    Josh Fang  18:57   Absolutely, and it's always hilarious when someone asks you if you if you have any debt, and you tell them $500,000 when you're 23,24 years old, the biggest thing about borrowing money is now, again, there's different types of debt. So I'm not saying, hey, go buy some expensive car that you're going to be backwards on in a few months. Don't get a bunch of credit card debts at 24% interest rates. I'm talking about debt from a with a collateral attached to it, such as a mortgage. The way I like to think about borrowing money is borrowing like a bank, because your money has value. Whenever I have money in the actual bank, it doesn't feel like it, but I'm actually lending money to the bank. They're taking the money that I have deposited and lending it out to other people at higher rate than what they're paying you back. That's how they're actually making the money. I'm thinking like a bank. And of course, that's exactly how it is with borrowing money for rental properties. The interest rate that I have to pay on my mortgage is so much lower than how much income I'm receiving by actually renting it out and providing housing for someone. And then, of course. Tax deductions.   Keith Weinhold  20:00   Sure you're creating arbitrage there when it comes to paying off or aggressively paying down a property. I mean, some protection financially is surely good, but one has to realize that after some point, when you protect you cannot produce another way to say it is if you use your dollar to pay down, then you cannot use your dollar to multiply.   Josh Fang  20:25   I agree with that 100% I couldn't have said it any better.   Keith Weinhold  20:28   You really took action something that a lot of people don't do. I don't think you did right away. You listened to some episodes for quite a while, but you did overcome analysis paralysis at some point. So talk to us about more with that mindset of how you took the first step, even when you're still perhaps a little unsure.   Josh Fang  20:46   I think you say it best, and I know I'm literally taking the words out of your mouth, because, again, I'm a long time listener, but do the right thing before you do things right. Yes, rings so, so, so true. You're never going to be perfect. There's never going to be the perfect property. There's never going to be the perfect deal. Eventually you just have to do it. And again, all it really is is saying, Hey, here's what I want to do, and what are the steps that have to take to get there? If the first actual step, rather than just listening to the podcast or getting more information, if the first step is, hey, I want to get a pre approval. Go ahead and get it done. Reach out to a loan officer, get your pre approval, get the documents needed, get the right information that you need, and then start writing offers on properties, or contacting Keith and his team, their GRE mentoring team, and ask for property values. And once you find one, and again, you're never going to find the perfect property. Once you finally say, hey, this fits enough. Jump on it. You should be excited. I mean, again, once you're doing the right thing, you can learn to do things right. And slowly, kind of say, Hey, I made a small error there. Hey, I made a small error there. But at the end of the day, you move forward and you're ahead of where you started. I think that's the most important thing.   Keith Weinhold  21:59   Yeah. I think uncertainty stops. Some people, maybe even uncertainty with the larger economy. Or maybe people just look for excuses for inactivity. Sometimes there will always be some uncertainty out there. And what you do when you make an offer on a real asset is you just made some certainty in your life. Yeah, just talk to us more about the process of kind of you started with your first property and then growing that portfolio. And what did you learn between the first one in that second, third, fourth and fifth one, where you are now   Speaker 2  22:32   after buying my first one, when I received that first rent check, after that first rental property, my net cash flow after management expenses, putting a little, you know, VIMTIM, keeping an extra 10% away to just keep in the bank in case something came up. I wish cash flowing at the time. $231 doesn't sound like a crazy amount now, but as a 22 year old kid and saying, Hey, I got this $231 without lifting a finger, felt amazing. I had this feeling, I'm out in Southern California. We had this burger chain called in and out. My double double burger and fries combo was about $6 at the time. And I said, no matter how bad things get, no matter how bad things get, that $231 I can buy an in and out meal every single day, as long as I own that property. I just had such an overwhelming feeling of, when can I get the next one? I immediately, immediately reached out to MidSouth like, hey, put me on the list as soon as I have money. You know what? Keith, it got fun. It got fun every time I got an email saying, Hey, here's another property. Like, wow, if I can make this deal work, that's an extra couple $100 I can have at the end of the month every single day. And now I live in my own apartment complex, in a unit in an apartment complex, but at the time, I rented out a room in a house, in a condo, just a single room, and by the time I bought my second rental property, all of my cash flow from my two rentals actually covered the full amount of my monthly rent living out outside of my parents place. And that just felt so so so amazing, because it was like I almost had no overhead. So all the money that I was making for my job was completely disposable that I could use to purchase other rental properties. And that was just such an amazing, freeing feeling to know that no matter what happened, I obviously as long as there's no vacancies or any kind of crazy issues there, that I would still have that flow of income coming in pretty much after buying my first one, all I wanted to do was buy more. Now, a big issue that happened was 2020 and 2021 there was very little inventory, so really tough and slim pickings, and I would have bought a lot more if I could find more deals. And now, thinking back, I should have, if anything, I wish I bought more.   Keith Weinhold  24:50   Gosh, I just love that Josh, that seminal $231cash flow from that first property, and how you rationalize that that could buy you in and out. Meal every single day, all month. If that's what you wanted to do with that first one, that's terrific. And yes, markets change. There's more inventory available now than there was in 2020, and 2021, mortgage rates are surely higher. You don't have as much competition. You might even get a concession or two when you buy since it's a more balanced market today than it was about four years ago, for sure. So every market cycle is different. When you realize you're paid five ways at the same time, there's always one side to play or the other. There's always so many variables that you get to deal with there. Have you had any certain issues with property management, or do you have any mindset about using a property manager remotely. I assume you're using remote management for these turnkey type properties. Is that right?   100% I've actually never physically seen any of my properties. Yeah, what you say is the best, essentially, your team that manages your property is the most important by far. Right? Right now, here's the thing, issues are going to come up. Regardless of what happens. There's always going to be something that breaks. Eventually, there's always going to be vacancy. Eventually there can be natural disasters, something's always going to come up. And the thing is, you can't get angry about the things that you can't control. If there is a vacancy that you know you vetted the tenant properly, and there was nothing to do if there is a natural disaster or if something does break down in your property that you couldn't have expected coming or that wasn't your fault. The biggest thing is, you can't get angry with it. You just have to know that you can deal with it properly, and having a professional team on the other side saying, Hey, we're going to handle it. This is an issue. Here's how much it's going to cost. We got a couple of you know quotes. Please approve one when you get a chance, and knowing that the other side will be able to execute on that and to do it for you, and that you don't have to fly out wherever you own your property and do it yourself physically, or have to call around and find a contractor to do it, it's a huge peace of mind, and having a property manager and a team that you can trust just makes it work. If I couldn't get a property manager that I trusted, I wouldn't own the property in the first place. It's just too much work.   I am the same way. I also have not seen the majority of the properties I own. I've never seen them physically, in person, yeah, having a professional property manager, they provide a buffer, and they help keep this investment unemotional for you. And Mistakes happen when people get overly emotional about their properties. Some people are reluctant to hire a property manager, Josh because they don't want to pay the eight to 10% property management fee, which can actually be a little bit more than that effectively with leasing fees. But people feel that way, as oftentimes they're confining and limiting their search to their own local market, which probably isn't investor advantage. So they don't have enough of a cushion in their pro forma, in their profit and loss statement to pay for a property manager. But when you buy in those investor advantage places where you get that high ratio of rent income to purchase price. There you have the allowance to pay for the manager too,    Speaker 2  28:06   100% and luckily, because I have my foundation of real estate from listen to your podcast, I never even look at a deal without factoring in the fact that there will be management. I have never, ever even possibly considered self managing. It just makes no sense. I'd rather, let's just say it's 10% and a month's worth of lease, which is a little bit on the higher end in terms of management fees, right? Even if I were to do I would factor that in 100% of the time if the deal doesn't work, if it doesn't cash flow, if it doesn't, you know, appreciate a certain amount, if it isn't in my ballpark, with the management fees taken out, that's not even the deal that I'm looking at. It's just too expensive.   Keith Weinhold  28:47   Yeah, that's a great way to think about it, keep it unemotional and make it all relatively passive. I self managed for the first six or seven years of my real estate investing career, but that's because I was only investing in my own local market, and I was thinking small, and I didn't learn about finding the best investor advantaged places nationwide. Well, just as we wind down here, is there any last thing that you'd like to let the audience know or to tell us, I know before we recorded, you had talked about how really, your Daydream is more realistic than you think, and the motivation behind getting started. What do you want to leave with? Josh?   Speaker 2  29:22   You say it after every podcast. Don't quit your Daydream. I've been hearing that for eight years now at this point, and it really is, I don't have a day job. I pretty much only work when I feel like it. The majority of what I've lived off of is the income properties that I've bought and the lifestyle that I've crafted. It's so freeing. No one's telling you what to do. You don't have to go somewhere every day. You can spend time doing what you want. When I first quit my day job, and, you know, went into this semi retirement, I'm not gonna lie, I play video games eight hours a day for months, or maybe a month or two. I don't know if that's the most productive. It. But the fact that I could do that, I could obsess on crazy hobbies for a while was crazy. But one of the most important things to me of being able to reach this point in my life is I'm starting to get a little bit older. I am able to spend time with my family. I am able to spend time with my grandparents, and, you know, just like on a Tuesday or like on a Wednesday, just when nothing's really going on. Just being able to stop by and say hi to my family and spend time with them is something that I'm so blessed to be able to have, and not many people can do. And then the last thing I'd like to say on that is just, there's very small things in the world that a lot of people don't get a notice. Because I feel like everyone's in a rush all the time, and a lot of people are. You know, if you're working 40 hours a week, nine to five, you know, nine to six, there's not much time. But the other day, I was taking a small hike, and I saw a group of lizards. I thought they were cool, so I looked at the lizards. I spent maybe 15 minutes watching the lizards. I wasn't in a rush, you know, I could just enjoy the small things in life, and that's one of the best things in the world to just have that sense of not being in a rush. And I feel like investing in real estate and having that passive income and having that level of freedom. To me, that's what my Daydream is. There's nothing better to me.   Keith Weinhold  31:14   the simple pleasures about not having your time so confined that you could enjoy looking at lizards for 15 minutes. I love the small stuff like that. And does this mean Josh? I mean with five rental properties that you only need to work part time rather than full time, because usually five properties don't allow someone to completely leave the workforce.   Josh Fang  31:32   No, not at all. I definitely do things on the side. I still do loans for friends and family. I do some other stuff on the side, but it's more of that my basic needs are met for the most part.   Keith Weinhold  31:43   That's terrific. You've got more latitude to live and having a life of options Trumps having a life of obligations 100% Well, hey, it's been great hearing your story. Josh, loved having you here on the show you're listening to get rich education. We got to know listener. Guest, Josh Fang more, and we come back with another listener guest, profile, I'm your host, Keith Weinhold.    The same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group  NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your pre qual and even chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. While it's on your mind, start at Ridge lendinggroup.com. That's Ridge lendinggroup.com.    You know what's crazy your bank is getting rich off of you. The average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I started putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns, and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading. It's pretty low risk because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. You can invest as little as 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back. No weird lockups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds just sitting there doing nothing, check it out. Text family to 66866, to learn about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund again. Text family to 66866.   Jim Rickards  33:49   this is Arthur Jim Rickards. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  34:05   our next listener guest has an uncanny amount of similarities with me, like me, he was a geography major in college. He had humble beginnings in upstate New York, not far from where I grew up, in upstate Pennsylvania. He's a huge believer in real estate pays five ways, and he loves world travel. His first job out of college was, in fact, traveling the world, playing basketball against the Harlem Globetrotters. We sure don't have that pro basketball part in common. He owns dozens of units across seven states today. He's listened to GRE for six or seven years, and he was a corporate guy living in California who thought the book Rich Dad, Poor Dad was fiction, until he experienced the rapid appreciation of he and his wife's first primary residence. And after that appreciation, he knew he had to acquire more real estate. Prices were too high in California relative to rent, so he. Went out of state, and he had just one property for five years to learn that was pretty similar to me as well. And then he saw tremendous opportunity after the GFC hit in 2008 and that really put him on a path through experience the five ways real estate pays over time, and he became convinced that there's not a better risk adjusted business model that's easily accessible to the average person. Hey, welcome to GRE Nate O'Neil   Nate O'Neil  35:25   Keith, it's great to be here. I've been, as you mentioned, a long time. Listener. Really appreciate the content that you put out, and excited to be on the show   Keith Weinhold  35:32   and you're no longer playing like zero defense basketball against the Harlem Globetrotters. You work in the solar industry now. I know that you sell to single family rental REITs. That's really interesting. And one thing that real estate investing lets people do is think differently about their w2 jobs. So tell us about how that manifests with you. Nate,   Nate O'Neil  35:56   growing up, you know, the first 25 years of my life, 24 years or so, my identity was wrapped up as an athlete, and, you know, something I could really get excited about eventually, that had to come to an end, and started working in the corporate world. So did that for a little while, and got going. It really, you know, didn't resonate with me that much. But, you know, I had a wife, and I had some kids on the way, so had to keep grinding it out. And, you know, as I did that, I discovered real estate, and what really helped me with that was I saw the corporate world began to be a vehicle to grow my real estate portfolio, right? Instead of it being the desk jockey in the cubicle, my corporate job was okay, this is the way for me to raise capital and get the best loans to build a real estate portfolio so, and it's ironic, because as that kind of evolved, I gained, you know, more appreciation for the corporate job, and it didn't, it wasn't so burdensome. And I know there's probably a lot of people out there right that feel that way about their job, but you can probably do a mindset shift and say, hey, you know, this can serve me in other ways and it not be such a grind.   Keith Weinhold  37:03   That's a great way to think about it. While you have that job, it sure is an asset in helping you qualify for loans. Right before I quit my job, I made sure I qualified for as many loans as I could, because I sure would have had a hard time getting them immediately after leaving my job, before I built income or build up passively from something else. It's funny, when you're in the corporate world, you're in this context of normalcy. So many people that you know are working. You're around your coworkers all day. They're working, and if it's something you're not passionate about, yeah, you still don't question it, because it takes on that context for normalcy. But once you leave your job, it feels bizarre that anyone would ever show up and spend five of their seven days and most of the waking hours of those days doing something that they're not passionate about. Now maybe you are passionate about what you do. That's where the mindset that I think through there, but that's a good way to help a person feel a little bit better showing up at their job, even if it is a soul sucking job. Nate. So talk to us about this more with this sort of power of purpose that you had, and when you are working your day job, you probably do some living below your means in the short term, but a lot of people just do that decade after decade and grind it out. So how do you think about that with the mindset in this sort of capital formation stage, in order to acquire more property while you're working?   Nate O'Neil  38:29   Like I said, it was an opportunity that the job became an opportunity to fuel the real estate business, which, as you mentioned, I saw that opportunity in 2009 right when prices were low, when interest rates were low, when there was a bunch of nice new foreclosures on the market, I saw the it created a sense of urgency in me, right? So I was like, All right, let's go to work, because the work's going to drive that capital, and the capital is going to allow us to acquire more and more of this real estate, which is, again, something I was passionate about, because we had this just that one rental for that five year period, I saw the power of what it can do over the long term. And when you have that purpose and that clarity, then all the minor stuff that you can get wrapped around and can kind of slow you down, really doesn't matter you have that big vision and that big goal that you're going after that really kind of drives you    Keith Weinhold  39:20   now, before we got started today, I learned that you have a few ways of thinking about how real estate investors can have their cake and eat it too, more tactically. Here tell us about that. And of course, what is the point of having cake if you can't eat it?    Nate O'Neil  39:33   Yeah, for sure, worked in some different industries and some different companies, and seen a lot of different business models. I've never found anything where you can have kind of both sides of the cookie here, or hack cake eat it too. You can depreciate an appreciating asset. The government allows you to depreciate homes, right? Which gives you a nice tax benefit. The money that I make that my corporate job is taxed at a much higher rate than my real estate income, but yet the asset actually appreciates. Dollars. So you depreciate an appreciating asset. I think people underestimate the power of the 30 year mortgage, right? You can lock in an interest rate today for 30 years, and if interest rates go up, you did a great job. You locked in a great, great rate. If interest rates go down, you're a champion. If you just refinance, when you do a 30 year fixed rate mortgage, the lender is committing to you for three decades, but you don't have to commit to them. So again, have your cake and eat it, too. And then you know the whole return on amortization that you talk about, Keith, yeah, when you get to borrow money that you don't have to pay back, in essence, right? The resident that's in your home is paying that money back. So people think about they hate getting bills in the mail. I actually love getting my mortgage statements in the mail. Every month I go through this little ritual, I look at it, and my process is, wow, how much was that principle paid down? Right? I didn't pay it back, right? The rent payment paid it back. So what other scenario can you borrow money that, quote, unquote, someone else is paying back on your behalf,   Keith Weinhold  41:02   that ROA, that return on amortization, also known as principal pay down. Where, yes, you get that statement every month, and you get to see how much a stranger paid down for your property. It's basically a stranger every month is faithfully funding an illiquid savings account for you,   Speaker 3  41:22   it's just incredible. And then the final way I kind of think about having your cake and eating it too, is, is this HELOC strategy. So over time, as you build equity in your portfolio, you can take out a home equity line of credit, right? And the beauty of a line of credit is you open it up and you don't have to make any payments if you don't use the money. But when there's an opportunity, you can pound for that opportunity. And this is what we did in 2020 and 2021 we acquired some new construction fourplexes with HELOCs. And when in using the HELOC strategy, you're able to use every single dollar to keep the balance low. And what it does is it creates this virtuous cycle of increasing cash flow, because it's a line of credit, and you pay off against that, that line of credit, if you need the money back for an emergency, or if a better opportunity comes up, then you basically just pull more off that line of credit. But if you don't have that opportunity of that emergency, then your money is fully working to keep that payment low, which increases your cash flow, and again, it creates that virtuous cycle of of increasing cash flow, which you can use to pay down the HELOC. Even more   Keith Weinhold  42:29   I see no downsides to getting a HELOC to getting a line of credit against your existing primary residence or your rental properties, whatever they are. It's like this flexible credit card where you're drawing on it with your property as collateral, and it's at lower interest rates than a credit card is going to be. And you also have interest only flexibility, meaning even if you draw against it, and you do have a balance and you need to make a payment, therefore you can pay as little as only the interest portion if you want to. In fact, when I bought my first fourplex in order to fund my second fourplex, I took a HELOC second mortgage off of that first one. Love the HELOC really can't think of any downsides with at least having it there. And then it's up to you as to whether you want to draw against it or not. Absolutely talk to us more about you're another out of state investor based in high cost California. There. It sounds unusual to lay people, but here we are as successful investors owning these properties, typically that we have never seen out of state. Are you in that category as well? And talk to us more about the out of state investing experience   Speaker 3  43:40   I've only ever seen one of the units that I own, the rental units that I own, and I actually think it's a huge advantage, because if you're seeing them driving by them all the time, there's probably little nits that you could point out, and, you know, you get some kind of emotional attachment to them. The way I look at it, it's two things. Number one, it's the spreadsheet behind it, right? What are the numbers behind it? What is my mortgage payment? Is there Hoa, taxes, insurance, all that stuff, and what is my rent? And obviously, I'm all about cash flow, so that rent payment has to cover all the expenses with a little extra. The second piece of it behind the spreadsheet is the person managing it right? And I've been very fortunate over my years of investing to find some really quality property managers who I know I can trust. So, you know, absolutely, I mean, developed an ability to hire the right people to manage the property, and they handle just about everything, and I just need to be there, available for them if they have questions for me or decisions I need to make. Fully trust them. I have only ever seen one of the units that I own, and you know, never really planned to go out and visit them.   Keith Weinhold  44:44   You do like to travel, but just not necessarily to your 200k turnkey single family home in the Midwest, in the south, not where you want to stay. There are some advantages and some disadvantages of owning rental properties, say, four blocks from your home. One of the distinct disadvantages is, yeah, you might get that emotional attachment to it. You might get bogged down in inconsequential things. You might drive by and see that the hedge needs a trim. How much of a problem is that really?   Nate O'Neil  45:14   Exactly it, as long as the spreadsheet behind it is spitting out the right numbers, and you have someone that you can trust that can handle anything that that's major, or any tenant issues that's all that's really relevant.   Keith Weinhold  45:26   Has our investment coaching helped inform you at all? Helped you find properties or give you inside information or access to deals or other support?    Nate O'Neil  45:35   Yeah, I have had a conversation with Naresh. One of your investment counselors doesn't, haven't necessarily acted upon that. But, you know, I can say over the, you know, six to seven years that I've been listening to your podcast just understanding kind of the macroeconomic guests that you bring on in the markets that we believe, you know, are good for investing. Like that, information has been extremely valuable to me over the years.    Keith Weinhold  45:57   Our coaches are really deal scouts here in today's market. For example, things are just so much different than they were during the 2008 GFC years. There are always deals in every cycle. You typically just need to shift and find out where those opportunities are. Are there any specific niches or opportunities that you're exploiting today in this particular cycle? Nate   Nate O'Neil  46:19   yeah. So it's really interesting, and I've been spoiled, right in terms of the times when I did a lot of my acquisition back in 2008 we knew it was good, but looking back, you realize just how good it was at that time, and frankly, now is very challenging, right? I mean, affordability is the worst that's been in 40 years. Yeah, right. So you have to be really creative. You know, one of the things that I did recently was I learned how to do a loan acquisition. So assuming a loan can be very helpful, right where you're not dealing with today's interest rates, you can get yesterday's interest rates on a property. So that's been one thing, and one thing I continue to look at. I also believe that I've been focused on single family in some four plexes. I'm looking at smaller multifamily because what I've learned is there's opportunity when there's debt disruption, right? The great financial crisis happened because there were atrocious lending standards leading up to that time, right? So that opened up a window of opportunity. That opportunity is closed. Acquired some fourplexes in 20 and 21 when interest rates were unbelievably low, right? Basically, the Fed funds rate was basically zero. That kind of unique debt situation allowed me to acquire there and now, right? Since 2022 interest rates spiked so quickly, the way I think about it is the debt disruption period, there's probably some acquisitions that happened with, you know, three to five year short term loans that are going to be coming due, and those acquisition are facing payments that are going to double. So there could be some motivated sellers, not in the single family right, where you have 30 year fixed rate or 15 year fixed rate, but in those small, multi family loans, where they have those short term variable rate debts. So that's kind of how I'm thinking right now.   Keith Weinhold  48:05   That's perceptive. It's something I brought up on the show a month or more ago where apartment buildings have got to bottom out at some point those being sensitive to those shorter term interest rates. Well, Nate, this has really been helpful. You've given our audience quite a few things to think about. Is there any last thing that you'd like the audience to know?   Speaker 3  48:25    We talked a little bit about purpose, like that's very important. There is no better way, in my opinion, to build wealth for the average person, no more predictable way risk adjusted, to build wealth for the average person. You know, for the listeners out there. It's great that you're consuming this content, and if you can find a purpose behind it, then it'll help. And the other thing is, get clarity, right? There's a lot of different things you can do within real estate investing, but get clarity on what works for you. And the way to do that, frankly, is just kind of sit and think, I think, you know, especially in today's day and age, there's so many stimulus coming at us, from social media to everything that there's a risk of not being able to get clear. One of the big things that helped me during that, that period of, you know, 2009 to 2015 when we started to scale, was I was very clear about what we wanted. I had a buy box that was, you know, homes built this millennium B grade neighborhoods, cash flowed $300 or more with no more than 25% down in markets with population growth, job growth and favorable rent to price ratios. And when I was able to communicate with the agents and property managers, I was very clear on what we wanted to do. They had clarity on what they needed to do to help us scale so purpose and clarity.   Keith Weinhold  49:41   That's great guidance a specific Buy Box. Yes, focus is harder to find, and it's really important today. It's amazing. Nate, how much work I get done when my phone is one room away, over on the charger. It's incredible how that works. Well, it's been good to get your insight, and it's been good to talk to a guy. That might know the capital of Argentina much like I know a fellow geography guy and real estate investor. Yeah. I really want to thank you for sharing your insight with the audience today.    Nate O'Neil  50:11   Nate, I hope it's valuable for you in the audience.   Keith Weinhold  50:20   Oh yeah, good, relatable material this week, the first guest, Josh, also talked about how he took out a low interest rate car loan. So he held onto those funds rather than handing them over to an auto dealer, stayed liquid and used it for income property, creating a yield for himself that beat the car loan interest rate pretty smart. And before you do that, you do want to be sure that you've got enough liquidity to serve as debt. And then Nate the second one, the more experienced investor, reminding us that deals are not as good as they were coming off the global financial crisis. And he's right, but I still don't know of a better risk adjusted return today, like me, they both use professional property management. I mean, you do have the option of self managing your property remotely that you get from GRE marketplace. But of all the things in the world that you can learn about, even all the things in real estate investing that you can learn about, is self managing really what you want to spend your finite resource of time learning about. Even if you've got good tenants, you're bringing more intrusion and interruption into your life. Property managers don't just protect your asset, they protect your time. Big thanks to GRE listeners, Josh Fang and Nate O'Neil today until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.   Speaker 4  51:50   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  52:14   You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info, oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access, and it's got pay walls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers. It's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters. And I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text gre to 66866, while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text, gre to 66866   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, get rich, education.com.    

Keith discusses the new power shift in the housing market, where buyers now have more power in the Northeast and Midwest.  Ken McElroy joins us to discuss the current state of the real estate market, highlighting a significant decline in apartment building values and a predicted further drop in home ownership rates, potentially below 60%. They note that while some states, like Arizona, have surpassed pre-pandemic housing supply levels, others, like the Northeast and Midwest, still face shortages. Ken emphasizes the importance of affordability and the shift towards renting, predicting a significant increase in renters. He also shares insights on strategic property investments and the benefits of buying at current market lows. Resources: Use the discount code "KEN10" to get a discount on the Limitless Expo event. Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/559 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE’ to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai  Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, apartment building values have crashed about 30% in the past few years. Well, it's the opinion of today's qualified guest that it's going to get even worse from here. We'll also discuss why rents in the Phoenix area are declining, and a bold prediction on a collapse in the home ownership rate and the hordes of renters that that will create all today on get rich education.   Mid south home buyers, I mean, they're total pros, with over two decades as the nation's highest rated turnkey provider, their empathetic property managers use your ROI as their North Star. So it's no wonder that smart investors just keep lining up to get their completely renovated income properties like it's the newest iPhone. They're headquartered in Memphis and have globally attractive cash flows and A plus rating with a better business bureau and now over 5000 houses renovated. There's zero mark up on maintenance. Let that sink in, and they average a 98.9% occupancy rate, while their average renter stays more than three and a half years. Every home they offer has brand new components, a bumper to bumper, one year warranty, new 30 year roofs, and wait for it, a high quality renter. Remember that part and in an astounding price range, 100 to 180k I've personally toured their office and their properties in person in Memphis, get to know Mid South. Enjoy cash flow from day one. Start yourself right now at mid southhomebuyers.com that's mid south homebuyers.com   Speaker 1  1:59   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  2:15   Welcome to GRE from the Tigris to the Euphrates to the Mississippi and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold GRE founder Forbes real estate council member, Best Selling Author, look for my work in the USA today as well, and you are back inside for another wealth building week of get rich education. What's all that really mean? Ah, I'm just another slack jawed mouth breather with a mic here. Before we get to today's guest, Ken McElroy, let me tell you about housing's new power shift and where we're at today. Three to five years ago, sellers held all the power in virtually every market because the housing supply was so miserably low everywhere. So you had more one tours of real estate and few that were willing to sell. That is still mostly true on a national level, but the new power shift is about the fact that the Northeast and Midwest are replete with home buyers. Queues of buyers are lining up for the few available properties like I've touched on before, and look low available housing supply in these areas, the Midwest and Northeast, that's not a symptom of mass in migration. Hordes of people are not stampeding into Buffalo for the nightlife. It's all due to chronic under building, partly from strict regulation, especially in the Northeast. A big part of the power shift, though, is that we now have fully 10 states that are above pre pandemic supply levels, and you'll notice that none of these are in the Midwest and Northeast. The 10 states are Arizona, which we'll talk about more today, Colorado, Florida, Idaho, Hawaii, Oregon, Tennessee, Texas, Utah and Washington. Here in these places, is where the tables have turned, because supply is catching up with demand in those 10 states. So that's where we're seeing softer home price growth and where buyers have the power, these are some of the states where you can find better deals. Motivated sellers and builders in these places will often buy down your mortgage rate, give you closing cost credits or reward you with incentives, like a free year of property management. In fact, our GRE investment coaches guide you for free to exact property addresses where builders will buy down your mortgage rate to 5% today, one of them will even give you a $9,800 post close credit instead, if you so choose. Often do. Those like that are in those 10 states. They're elsewhere too. You can get started at GRE investment coach.com, conversely, 40 states have less for sale housing inventory than they did as compared to pre pandemic times. This is where sellers still have the power some of the most competitive markets in the nation are buffalo, Hartford, Providence and Boston, where more than 10 active home buyers vie for every single listing. That's per Zillow. That's sort of the real estate equivalent of a Taylor Swift or Beyonce ticket queue. At the other end of the spectrum, shoppers have an easier time in Miami with only 2.6 shoppers per listing, followed by Houston at 3.4 New Orleans at 3.5 and San Antonio at 4.3 nationally active listings are up 31% over last year. That's quite a bit, but we're still 12% below pre pandemic, 2019 inventory levels. And is all this good news or bad news? It totally depends on who you are. If you're holding property in the Northeast and Midwest, you're pretty happy about this strong appreciation in the single family space, but in the southeast, appreciation is non existent. There's even mild depreciation, especially in parts of Florida. If you're looking to own more property in the nation's southeast quadrant, you're now enjoying less buyer competition. In fact, sellers are competing for you, and let's avoid being too assuming. Here I've been talking about things on the state level. States are not monoliths. Philadelphia is not Pittsburgh, Seattle is not Yakima. Cities have different supply situations. Even within one city, the scenario varies, of course, really the bottom line here is that today's recovery from 2022 national supply abyss has been an uneven recovery, where builders are frozen, appreciation soars, where builders hustle, buyers win. So if you're looking for deals, find that short queue.    Today's guest is a familiar one to GRE listeners. He's based in Scottsdale, Arizona, which is the Phoenix Metro. Arizona, though it's fast growing, is still just the 14th most populous state, but Arizona is an interesting market, because we're going to get to see what happens when you have an overbuilt condition, like we do there. We'll discuss that market and the national market as well. Get a key gage on the direction of rents, occupancy and prices, first in the single family space, and then we'll talk about apartments. Anyone that's paid attention to real estate that past few years. Knows that when mortgage rates spiked in 2022 single family values have held up, apartment values plummeted due to their interest rate resets. We'll get insight on if the beleaguered apartment space has bottomed out price wise, or if apartment values still have further to fall.    I'd like to welcome in frequent GRE guest, and he was also one of our earliest back in 2015 Ken McElroy. Ken authored a bunch of successful books, both within and outside of the rich dad series. He's also a well known, successful apartment syndicator with over 10,000 units across several states, and he's also in other parts of the commercial real estate sector, including billboards and self storage. So it's really great to have back on the show. Ken McElroy   Ken McElroy  8:57   good to be here, Keith, thank you. It's been 10 years, man, since we've been doing   Keith Weinhold  9:01   this? Yes, 10 years back in episode 25 since you were first here, more than a decade of this. So we know each other's work really well, and it's such an interesting time in the apartment space. I want to get to that later in our conversation today and really find out if you think that the apartment space has bottomed out. But before we do that, let's talk about the single family space. The audience should know that you can meet both Ken and I in person, as we're both faculty members on the spectacular real estate guys Investor Summit C, which is actually underway now. We're recording this just before the summit. So let's discuss the direction of rents and occupancy. We'll get to price later and Ken although most states still have a housing shortage statewide, Arizona's active housing inventory for sale is 24% above pre pandemic levels. That's what realtor.com tells us, and this. Deeply due to a lot of building, a lot of building usually does not bode well for price growth or rent growth. So tell us about rent, direction and occupancy in the single family space in the Phoenix Metro.   Ken McElroy  10:15   There's a bunch of things happening in the Arizona market. First of all, one is we've had a lot of people move here right in the last 4,5,6, years. Yeah, post pre pandemic, post pandemic, all of that. We are a pretty small state. You got Phoenix, got Tucson, you got Flagstaff, a bunch of other small cities that kind of surround some of those. But it's not like a Texas or a Washington or a lot of these California, like a lot of states, and have a lot of cities to draw from. If people move to Phoenix, that's pretty much where they're they start a lot of times, not every time, but and so it's really interesting. When we have net in migration into Arizona, it really moves the needle for most of these cities. Is kind of the point. And so we're always going to be affordable, we're always going to have great weather, it's safe. We got pretty normal politics, I should say, as compared to some of the others, we really do have a growing population. And so what happened? We had a nice run on the real estate. As you do, you know, we had a nice run on the apartments. We had a nice run on the single family that tapered off when the interest rates went up, essentially, right? You know, we actually built too much. We built too many apartments. We built too many houses. When interest rates went up, people kind of pulled back. That's what you're seeing now. So right now, it's a great time to be a home buyer. It's a great time to be a renter in most of those cities in Arizona specifically. And why would that be? It's because they have a lot of choices. So on the single family side, the listings have gone up, and therefore some of the prices have you know, people are starting to negotiate a little bit more. Now here's the interesting thing, Keith, if you measure it on last year or the year before, it has huge numbers, like you just quoted, you know, 24% but what's happening is things are on the market like 40 days, you know, you know what I mean, like from a week or two, it's doubled or tripled, as you know, that's still not a very realistic market. The market is still, in my opinion, pretty healthy. It's not unbalanced, and before it was a seller's market, and so it's just normalizing. And normalizing, to me, if you go over year, over year, over year, is I think MLS says four to six months of inventory, right? I think things are just normalizing. But if you've been through the run, this is like the end of the world, right? But it's not. It's just things are settling down, and it's the greatest time because they're supposed to be a little bit of friction between the seller and the buyer. I believe there should be just about right. It's never just right, as you know, it's usually pulls on one harder on one side or the other. But we just went through an incredible time where the sellers pretty much got whatever they wanted and the landlords pretty much got whatever they wanted, and so this is just pulling back, you know, the tide's going back out. There's no cause for concern, at least in my world at all. It's supposed to be this way, and we need affordability. We need people to be able to buy homes. We need people to be able to rent. Yeah, I'm in the landlord business, but I don't want rents to run. There needs to be a balance there, even though it's good for me, if it does, but it's not good, because what happens is, then the government gets involved, and what they need to get involved in is adding supply, right? And not capping the rents. You know, what they need to do is just work with developers. And you know, because we're growing here in Arizona right now, we're seeing a pullback, but I think it's needed. There's nothing wrong with this. It weeds out a lot of, you know, realtors that weren't doing much, that just got their license, were hanging around, say, with mortgage folks and title people and lazy contractors and all that stuff. So whenever there's a pullback, the professionals win.   Keith Weinhold  14:01   Well, this is some really good perspective here. We're all victims of the recency bias, and, yeah, you're talking largely about market normalization. What sure wasn't normal or healthy, in a lot of ways, was back in 2021 when you might have had 50 offers for one available property, and people had to bid 50k over the asking price, and they might have waived their inspection, which is typically not a good idea when we talk about rents in the direction of rents, especially there in the Phoenix metro with single family homes, which I know your wife, Daniil, is pretty intimately involved with. Typically, this new supply increases competition. It increases the competition for landlords competing for more of those tenants, which is something that typically is not good for rents. Have we seen declining rents in the local market there in Phoenix?   Ken McElroy  14:54   Of course, yeah. And I'll tell you, there's a bunch of factors. So there's always cross currents. People want one. Answer, but there's not right, like, so let's just pick on a whole bunch of things that went wrong at the tail end of all of this. It was Airbnb. Like, Phoenix and Scottsdale are a huge Airbnb market. I've rented Airbnbs there. Sure. It's incredible, right? And so what happened was a lot of people said, oh, I can buy this house, throw some furniture in it. And, you know, I can get 10,15, 20 grand a month in rent out of these things. And they were right. And then what happened was, there just was too many, so became oversaturated. So you're definitely seeing those back on the market. And so interesting fact, Heath, all you got to do is look at the pictures. And if you see bunk beds. You know, it used to be an Airbnb like, you know what I mean? So that was the one, but two, let's don't forget this run that we just had put a lot of people into the rental market for the first time on the single family side too. So we never really had this many landlords on the single family side as well. And so there's all these mistakes that people made. They bought incorrectly. They had capex work. They bought with floating rate debt. And when rates went up, they weren't cash flowing. They wouldn't know how to manage them. So So there's all this stuff that was kind of going on behind the scenes, on the apartment side of the equation, which is where I hang out. Mostly, I watch all this. And because my class A buildings are competing for single family. They have single family typically wins because it has a yard, has a garage. Nonetheless, I gotta pay attention to it. So it's been interesting to watch. At one point you could not find a home in the Scottsdale area under 500 grand period like nothing. And now, of course, those are starting to come down a little bit more, and there's some softness in the rent, so the renters are have more choices. Now, why is that? There's a couple reasons. If you're a renter and you're looking for a place, you know, I'm sure you're considering a house, but not everybody wants a house, especially if you're single or maybe it's just you and somebody else, and maybe you don't have a pet. There's a lot of reasons that people just don't want to have to a home. So you've got condos and you've got apartments and you've got homes, and then you have school districts. So people definitely want to be in certain school districts based on their children. So you have all these cross currents going on, on where people want to be. And so what does all that mean? What that means is there are certain markets, from a rental standpoint, that are doing extremely well, still, both on apartments, on condos and houses. And then there are other markets that absolutely are not just depends on the concentration of all those things and all those factors that are going on. The one thing that's actually disrupting a market more than anything is apartments and condos. Because, for example, Danielle just had a condo that she owned, and the condo was worth, let's say, 300 grand, but it's probably 25 years old now, yeah, and there's apartments going up, you know, a block from there, right? So her renter is said, you know, I'd rather go over here. Brand new amenities, nine foot ceilings, brand new fitness center, all this stuff. So apartments really do reach into that rental market a little bit. And so there is some spillover between that. But primarily what's going on in Phoenix is there's a lot of new construction. And not just Phoenix. This is Tucson and Greater Phoenix. There's a lot of new construction that was started when rates were low. They were started in 2122 and you know, like, because I'm a builder, it could be a year to 18 months when we're opening a project from the time we put our the shovel in the dirt, we're not even open for a good 18 months. So there's a lag period. And those started opening in 23,24 and certainly 25 and these big projects, two, 300 unit projects, which I have several going right now, they're one to two year lease ups, so you could be looking at two or three year lag on some of the housing that's being provided. So that's all here now that is been good for renters. There's a couple horror stories going on, and I'll just explain. So downtown Phoenix, there was a whole bunch of apartment projects and condo projects that were built trying to attract people to live in downtown Phoenix? Well, there's challenges for downtown Phoenix too, and we won't have to get into that. I don't particularly think that there was ever the real demand for the amount of housing. So what you've done is people build a lot of housing in concentrated areas around the stadium in West Phoenix, near the Cardinal Stadium downtown Phoenix, you know, right in the heart of the business district. So if you were to rent something today, it would be four months free on a 12 month lease.   Keith Weinhold  19:48   Wow, that's about the steepest concession I've ever heard of in my life.   Ken McElroy  19:54   Yes, that's today. So all you gotta do is Google it and you'll see. And the only reason that happened, Keith, is. Is because there was too many units delivered at at a short period of time, and there was the demand, wasn't there? Gosh, now go 10 miles up to Tempe, go to Chandler, go to Scottsdale. No concessions, right? So again, you know, when you look at a market, you're going to see that it typically a lot of these concentrate in certain areas. And so there's a lot of areas in Phoenix where the consumer or the renter has an upper hand a lot. And so they're driving their choices based on their monthly rent. All of that plays into this thing, but the there's areas that are rock solid. And you know that would be Scottsdale, Tempe, Chandler, Gilbert, and there's areas that are over built that would be the west side, downtown Phoenix, the south side, there's areas that there's pockets that you know are in disruption you can kind of pick your poison, right? Like, if you're a landlord, there are areas that you want to buy in areas that you don't want to buy in. And as a renter, you have the same kind of choices. So when you blend it all together, you guys get the national news. But really it's pretty pocketed, just like it can be in any market.   Keith Weinhold  21:12   Well, you bring up so many good points there. Some of these markets that have done more building than usual are in this situation where there is landlord competition for tenants. Now, nationally, we're still under built, so it's interesting to talk about one of these overbuilt conditions in that competition for tenants, like we've been talking about, in general, a tenant prefers a single family home, and it's privacy for sure. They can't always afford that, but the apartment market and the single family rental market are somewhat interrelated, because if there's so much new apartment supply, it's got the appeal of being brand new, and there might even be concessions given, like you've mentioned there Ken and that can make it very attractive for a potentially wannabe single family home renter to go ahead and rent an apartment instead. So this glut of new apartment supply actually can affect the single family rental market somewhat, and competition is really interesting. I mean, certainly in my real estate investment career, I've experienced that. The first time I ever experienced that was that I owned several doors, and they were about 25 years old, and they had garages, each one of them a new apartment complex was built close to those so brand new, and you had to drive by this new apartment complex. Everything nice, shiny new, painted new parking lot, everything a prospective tenant had to drive by that in order to get over to look to my units. That softened my rent somewhat. The one thing that saved me a bit is that my running units were in Anchorage, Alaska, I had the garages with my units. The new apartment building didn't. They only had carports, so I did have a differentiator to help soften the blow in a rental market that became more competitive. Tell us more about the competition for tenants there in Phoenix, whether that's on the single family side or the apartment side can with concessions. And does that mean that you're altering the length of leases there in the local market? Or tell us more about how you're doing that competition?   Ken McElroy  23:10   It's a great question, yeah. So I would say generally, a home is going to be about 1000 bucks more on the average, like if you were just to put a number on it, three bedroom, Rambler type home with a garage in a yard. It's going to be maybe three grand. That apartment, the equivalent was is going to be maybe two grand. So roughly, those are kind of the numbers. But what happens if you're going to rent a house, you're definitely going to pay more money, that's for sure. And of course, depending on the area, depends on the on the rent. Now what's happening in a lot of these markets, like West Phoenix, for example, where you have 1000s of units being added at once, and you get this one month, two month, three month, and the extreme, of course, being four months free, if you're a renter and your rent is two grand, but you get three months free, let's say or four, you're going to take that deal, right? Because your your your average rent is, what 12,13, $1,400 a month, not 2000 so all of a sudden, it's going to impact those single families. So what's happening right now is the apartments that got delivered in in a lot of these geographic areas, these sub markets are definitely impacting the single family rental market. Now, if you're a family and you've got kids and you got pets and you want to be in a school district, you're not even looking you're basically just trying to find the best deal on a home. I get that. But if you have a choice, the rents are about the same, you're going to take the house, sure period I would, you would. So now what's happening is there's, there's such a difference between the rental price of a home versus the rental price of a brand new apartment that people are going to gravitate to the apartments, because those landlords trying to fill those things up are scrambling and marketing to anybody. And everybody and cutting whatever deals they can, because they're just trying to get out of those construction loans. It's a weird market right now. And of course, there are areas Keith that this does not exist at all, right, like you go into like Tempe, and you're not going to have because it doesn't have the available land, you know, which is around Arizona state for example, the Arizona State University. You go into North Scottsdale, you're not going to find this because North Scottsdale doesn't like apartments. And, you know, the homes are a million bucks and up, but there are definitely pockets where this is happening. So if you're a renter and you have choices, this is a great time for you and and to be honest, it's about time, because it was a seller's market and a landlord's market for a long time, and so it's just reverting back to the mean.   Keith Weinhold  25:46   Let's wrap up the discussion about rents and occupancy with what's happening nationally. Ken, since in apartment buildings, you invest in multiple states there, we know, for example, that the home ownership rate recently fell from 65.7% down to 65.1% fewer homeowners means more renters. But that doesn't necessarily mean that they're all going to be absorbed immediately, either. So talk to us about that.    Ken McElroy  26:13   There's an affordability problem, right? We haven't seen a massive adjustment with house prices now you have in areas, of course, I saw your recent podcast on Florida. You know how right the price of a house is, is less than a car today? Yeah, you're right, like so, but what's happening is there are markets that are pulling back, right. There are markets that had a bigger bubble than others, and they're pulling back. And so there's great deals in those markets. A lot of areas in Florida being one of those markets, there are other markets where you don't have that. So we are definitely seeing the same thing. And so we're having, in my opinion, it's the greatest time, because you have people that are, I think, should be able to buy a home. But interest rates seem to be holding at Six 7% and the pricing, albeit, hasn't run like it has, but it's certainly not pulling back like crazy either. It's still over 400 on the average, you know. So if you look at the delta between what it costs to buy a home just mortgage only, and you look at what it costs to rent, it's never been bigger. So the difference between your rent, the rent and a mortgage, has never been bigger. And the other thing Keith, that doesn't get talked a lot about are everything non interest rate and everything non mortgage. So let's start talking about insurance. Let's talk about property tax. Let's talk about, you know, capex. So there's a really good survey that bankrate.com did that said that right now, the average cost to own a home, not mortgage, is 1500 a month. So now that's average. I'm sure there's some that's less. I'm sure it's some that higher. So when you take 1500 a month to own it, plus the mortgage you're talking about quite a bit. It's a heck of a financial commitment when you can just rent for 12, 1314, 1500 and call it a day, you're going to move the needle twice as fast, and you're going to be able to get out of whatever financial situation you're in twice as fast when you don't have all those other costs. So what's really going on now? And the reason why you're starting to see this home ownership rate go down, and I actually make a prediction, gonna do it right now on your show, I think it's gonna go down below 60. I think for the first time in our history, we're gonna see home ownership in the 5050 nines, which is a massive statement. But if you take a look at under Obama got up to 69 and then it was, first of all, it was Clinton, and before that, and then kind of ran, but then it kind of got pulled back under the Bush, and then Obama kind of took the brunt of it. You know, when all that stuff was falling out, but it's been falling, and it's falling. Why it's falling? Because people can't afford a home, and they need to be able to afford a home. So we can't build affordably. The single family market is not affordable, and inflation surpassing wage growth, so you have this massive shift of people, in my opinion, moving from home ownership to the rental side. And there was a time where 1% shift Keith was 1 million people,   Keith Weinhold  29:27   1 million new renters, with every 1% drop in the home ownership rate   Ken McElroy  29:32   was 1 million people. So imagine that it doesn't sound like much when you go 65.7 to 65.1 right? That's a lot of people. When you got about 142 million people in the US, or a billion, right? 340   Keith Weinhold  29:46   350 million in 300 Yeah, about 145 million houses,   Ken McElroy  29:51   45 million, yeah, something like that. So you start to take a look at these numbers. They're massive. So these little 1% movement. It is a lot of people. I think we're going to continue to see it. People need to put their stake in the ground here and get on the landlord side of this, because we're going to see a massive shift of people because they can't afford they're going to be permanent renters, renters for life. And it's not good. I'm not advocating, but it just is what it is, with wage destruction, with inflation, with the affordability, the way it is, people are going to be forced into the rental side of the equation, whereas before, we were always kind of working on the fluctuations of the interest rates and the policies of the President, let's say, or whatever it was, to try to get people to be homeowners, or whatever it might be. Now, we might be in some kind of a permanent state unless something really changes, because we're four or 5 million houses short in the US as a result of the last 20 years. As you know,   Keith Weinhold  30:54   I recently saw a media article that was titled The hidden cost of home ownership, and they were talking about hidden costs as things like maintenance, property taxes, property insurance, utilities. I don't know how in the heck those costs are hidden. Any prospective homeowner needs to be aware of those costs, and inflation impacts those costs, where inflation cannot impact your fixed rate, principal and interest payment. There we have it a brazen prediction from Ken that the home ownership rate will drop below 60% in this cycle and the hordes of renters that that's going to release, we're talking about the direction of rents and occupancy in both Phoenix and the nation at large. We're going to come back after the break and talk about the direction of real estate prices. You're listening to get rich education. Our guest is Ken McElroy. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold.   the same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. 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Can you corroborate Is that what you're seeing as far as values go there on the ground, or is it different in the sub markets    Ken McElroy  34:20   it's definitely different in the sub markets, but I would definitely concur that it is flat, Keith, it's a very interesting time. People are used to selling things fast. Oh, I'm going to sell this and it trades, and then they're moving it right to something else. They're not used to the markets that you and I grew up in, right which is, you remember the old days where we would list something and it might be on the market for three or four or five months. These people, these kids, these let's last 10 years, they have never seen anything like that. So for me, I think we're just moving back to what I would consider to be normal. I don't see a problem with flat at all. In fact, I think homes are unaffordable and. And flat isn't necessarily bad. That means that both sides are kind of doing deals. That means the seller doesn't hold the cards, and it means the buyer doesn't hold the cards, and so right now is a great time to buy because if a seller is sitting on something for even a couple months, they're not used to it. There's deals to be had right now. And it's, I think, if you have the dry powder and you have the ability to move, is a great time to buy.   Keith Weinhold  35:26   You had mentioned, when we were talking outside this show, that your wife, Danielle has made some interesting moves in her single Yeah, yeah, tell us about that.   Ken McElroy  35:36   It's a fantastic move. I mean, one of the greatest, obviously, I'm doing these big apartment deals, she can't relate, and she's doing these small houses, which she loves. She doesn't like debt. She likes to pay them off, and she manages them all herself. And so she bought this condo years ago, and it's worth about 300 grand, and she paid like 164 years ago, and the rents have dropped. You know, per our last conversation, they were used to be around 1900 now they're around 1700 but the same time, rents have dropped. And why would rents drop? Because there's more competition. There's new apartment buildings being built around the area. The tenants have more choices. Again. There's, you know, rents came down a little bit. So she lost couple 100 bucks a month there, and the HOA hit her with costs. Our insurance went up, our landscaping went up, so all of a sudden their HOA fees started going up. So the rents came down, and the HOA costs went up, squeezes on, yeah, so all sudden she's got this squeeze and so she's looking at it. And I said, you really ought to take a look at your what we call imputed equity. In other words, she has no debt on this thing, so she literally has another way to say it is she has 300,000 sitting in a condo, an asset. What does it matter? What it is and she gets maybe, what does she make it 500 a month, maybe $6,000 okay? Net Cash Flow a year, right? Nothing. So you take your 6000 you divide it by your 300 and it's not a very good return. Yeah, eight. Okay, so she's looking at what we call imputed equity. What's your return on the equity you have? Okay, so she said, I'm going to start looking at these homes that have, like you said, the garages and the yards, because again, we know that should be able to get closer to $3,000 a month on those so she started scouring, and she found one, and it was about 450 grand. So she had to come up with another 150 grand. And so what she did was she sold the unit, the condo she had that had rising HOA and lowering rents for 300 she did a 1031 exchange into the $450,000 house, and then she had to come up with another 150 but her rent now is three grand, and she was able to increase her cash flow By almost $1,000 for a month. So that extra 150 generated about $12,000 of net cash flow gain. And so again, she just purely looked at the math on one and did a 1031 moved it into another one. And now she's super happy it's in a home. And as you know, in a lot of these homes, not always, but you tend to have people that don't move as much. So this the guy that moved in has his son. He has him in a local school. He's young. He's probably going to be there for years, so she's probably not going to have the turnover that she would in a condo project. That's really more like an apartment building. That's what she just did. And so don't forget, when prices are high, you're exiting high and buying high. When prices are in flux, a little bit like they are flat, you're going to be able to find deals. So it's a really good time to take a look at imputed equity and what's your real, true return, and is there a better asset class for you to be able to move that money into? Because this is truly about managing money and maximizing your return on your own dollars. And that's a move that she just made, and she's going to be on the cruise. She'll see you, and I'm encouraging her to actually do a talk on it, because there's a lot more detail to how she pulled it off. But it only took her, like, four or five months to do it, and it worked perfectly.   Keith Weinhold  39:22   Yeah. Well, congratulations there. I'm a fan of debt around here, as you know, on the summit, Daniel and I'll have to have a chat, and I'll talk about why financially free beats debt free and all of that. But I would love to hear her reply. She probably has some really good, sound reasoning for that can nationally apartment values have followed perhaps an astounding 30% because the way I see it is that three or four years ago, there were tons of new apartment starts with those freakishly low mortgage rates like you touched on. Start to completion of an apartment building can be as long as two years. So those starts have now become completion. Dollars, and they need to be leased up. So that's the glut, and that's why apartment vacancies are common in a lot of American markets today, with higher mortgage rates now, we have fewer starts and with less new future apartment supply coming onto the market, which would have been completed in 2025 to 2027 I mean, that's something that could portend well for the future, but the current apartment glut still needs to get absorbed by tenants. So talk to us about that.   Ken McElroy  40:29   That's a great, great tee up for me. Okay, so I'm going to do seven transactions this year. Now, that's all 200 plus units. So I bought 360 unit building and brand new in Las Vegas. We just closed on a 282 unit in north Scottsdale. We bought 152 unit in Phoenix. And on and on and on and on and on. We're really, really, really busy right now, because, to your point, why would we be doing that now? Here's why apartments are valued based on how they're operating period. So high vacancy, high concession, flat rents, high expenses. That's all bad if you own it, it's really good if you buy it. So you want to buy at today's numbers, and that's what we're doing. We're buying at today's numbers, and we think that there's a little window that we've got through 26 to be able to acquire a bunch of apartments at these low values. To your point, they've definitely dropped. There's another case as to why, because the next piece is when the mortgage rate's high, cash flow is less. So when your mortgage payment is higher, all things being equal, your cash flow is less. So when rates went up, then people could pay less, and that drove values down. So if we could lock in today with all this disruption, so that's what we've been focused on. And it's been a very exciting year for our company. And in addition to that, to your point, but you and I have never spoken about, we just broke ground on another deal, and we're just leasing up on a deal down in Tucson that we're we're a 300 unit building that we're just finishing, and we just broke ground on a 312 unit, and we got a couple more slated because we're trying to break ground today. And why would we would break ground today because there's not a lot of subcontractors bidding on the stuff. So we're getting better pricing. The interest rates are high. This is true. That's not necessarily a positive, but we're breaking ground in anticipation of opening in two years, when all this stuff gets absorbed, we're going to be opening and so, you know, if we could time it today with 25 we break ground, we're going to open in 27 this stuff will be absorbed by then the blood will be in the streets in 25 and 26 and maybe early 27 and then it's going to shift again, Keith, and you know, people are slow to react. And so we think we're going to hit this little window at optimal time to be able to open up brand new product in two years.   Keith Weinhold  43:05   That's great. Ken we've been having these conversations for over a decade now, I know, and the way that I see it is that MC companies, your company, was built exactly for times like this. Is that to say that you think apartment values have reached their bottom,   Speaker 2  43:22   so I actually don't think they have yet. That's a funny comment, and here's why, because we also went through this extend and pretend time with lenders, right? So the lenders, whoever bought something, was trying to hold on to it forever. But now, with this new administration and the battle with the, you know, Powell still in office for another year. Who knows really, what's going to happen with rates? Maybe a quarter here, quarter there, whatever. But the reality is, there's no relief in sight. It doesn't appear. Because now we have this high vacancy, we have high expenses, and I don't think there's going to be a lot of interest rate relief. And so I think the lenders are going, you know what? We're gonna start listing these. So we're starting to see just in the last few months, brokers call. I got a call the other day from a broker out of San Antonio. He said a lender called me. They gave me nine deals. He said the keys, they gave me the keys on nine deals now and then I got another one in Dallas. It was 35% occupied, and the loan was 25 million, and the guy said they would take 14, so that's an $11 million haircut to the lender. So you're starting to see these. These are coming into my emails, right? Because they flooded. We are kind of deal. Yeah, it's so good. Now I've passed on everything so far because I think the knife is still falling a little bit, and so I think we're in the first few innings of seeing these kinds of deals, and there needs to be a lot of them, right? Like they need to be everywhere. And then when they're everywhere, everything's listed, and people are looking at them, and there's all this interest, then I think we're going to be at the bottom, but we're darn close. I mean, we're darn close, I would say. Right? We're probably by end of the year close. That's why, if a prudent investor, is getting their dry powder together, now they're meeting with their broker relationships, now they're meeting with their lender relationships, now they're putting together their LPs, and they're starting to go out and look at deals. Now, even if it's no no, no, no, no, no, no. This is the time for you to build relationships and be ready to strike when you start to see stuff this year, toward the end of the year, will will be the bottom and then I also think next year is going to be rocky for a lot of things. Then you're going to see a lot of lender write offs.    Keith Weinhold  45:37   This is really good guidance for what you the listener, can accidentally do if you are a prospective apartment building buyer. Great insight there. Ken. Ken, yes, you and I are about to be together on the real estate guys Investor Summit to see but there's another great event that begins at the end of next month that you put together.    Ken McElroy  45:59   Tell us about that. This is great. I have now we have about 4000 investors. So these are all high net worth people that invest with us. And you know, this is our 24th year in business. So when I meet with all of them, we used to do these investor summits, they would say, What about gold? What about silver? What about oil? What about water? What about timber? What about self storage? What about Office? What about retail? So I'm like, I'm going to create a conference where I can have everything in one spot, and we can invite high net worth, accredited people be able to come there and listen to the best of the best. So no professional speakers, just people that are really doing deals. You know, like we have guys that are building wellness spas and hospitality. Obviously, we have some single family. We got multi family. Got a retail guy, industrial guy, commercial guy, office guy. We got a gold panel. And then we got these economists, and you probably know some of the names. So we got George gammon coming. We got Jeff Snyder, who's unbelievable Euro dollar University. He's coming. We got Brent Johnson, who created what's called the milkshake theory. And just Google it, you'll see it's all about the central banks. We got Jim Rickards, who wrote currency wars and a new case for gold. And we got Lawrence Lepard, who just wrote this book called The Big print. All coming as speakers unpaid, and they're just going to try to deliver the best value they can to the people. Because I tell you what, Keith, I don't know about you, but it's confusing. I'm reading about tariffs, I'm reading about inflation. I'm reading about unemployment. I don't know where interest rates are going. I'm feeling it at the street level, at the main street level, with my apartment buildings, they're harder to manage. The expenses are going up. I try to create this environment to where people can show up and hear real real things, and they can make real decisions and course correct, right, and also take advantage of of some other things. We're also having a manufacturing panel, and I got a whole panel just on the Trump tax bill, because the opportunity zones, the bonus depreciation, all the stuff, these are things that you can do to be able to take action. So this is limitless expo.com. Since we're on your show, they can do KEN10. KEN10, which is a discount, the prices do go up. Obviously they're the highest. They are in July, because that's when the event is but in June, they're still lower. So I would suggest that people go this year, especially with this new administration, and everybody's like, what is going on? Hopefully we can it's starting to clear up some of the confusion that we all have right now and try to figure things out.   Keith Weinhold  48:36   It seems like all we do know is that we don't know limitless ought to help clear some of that up. It is July 31 to August 2. Tell us where it's taking place.   Ken McElroy  48:47   Yeah, it's at the gaylord in Texas, in Dallas, Texas. It's called the Gaylord Texan. It's limitless expo.com. Now we did it last year. There'll be 2000 people. We have 50 speakers. We have five stages, 50 speakers. It's a really high end event. What I mean by that is these are real people doing real deals with real businesses, real investors. It's been fantastic. I haven't had to pay speakers because of the quality of the attendee. That says a lot. It's really been interesting and great. And by the way, I don't really think having big speakers to sell tickets is the way to go. I'd rather have a real quality event, and it's really interesting once you set your mind on something. Because my investors and other investors show up because they do more than invest in just what we do. Like real estate. Everybody wants a little piece of real estate, but they also want to know about Bitcoin. They also want to know about gold, you know. And these are things that I'm not that proficient in, you know. I want to hear from experts in those fields. So it's really been a great, great event.   Keith Weinhold  49:48   You kind of crowdsource the need. You listen to what your audience was asking about, and then you delivered it for them. Limitless expo.com, use the discount code KEN10 to get. Get a discount. Ken McElroy, it's been great chatting about the direction of rents and prices in the both single family space and apartment space. It's been great having you back on the show.   Ken McElroy  50:09   Yeah, for sure. Keith, always great. Man. Good seeing you.   Keith Weinhold  50:18   Yeah. Ken, decidedly bullish on buying real estate, even calling it a great time to buy. He basically believes that because buyers have more power than they did three and four years ago, and they have more options, an emphatic prediction that the home ownership rate will fall below 60% there is profundity here. I mean, the census figures on this go back to the 1960s and the lowest it's fallen in all that time was 63% by the way, homeownership peaked in 2004 at 69% apartment values have crashed about 30% and It's probably going to get worse. So the worst isn't over, but likely will be by about the end of this year. So in Ken's opinion, most of the worst is over. I'm reading in between the lines there on that one. Hey, I hope you've been enjoying this show lately. Next week, we're going to change things up somewhat here. Recently, we've had rather prominent guests on the show, like the father of Reaganomics, David Stockman, then Russell gray last week, this week, the owner of 10,000 running units, Ken McElroy. And you know their perspectives and experience and influence, they are terrific. And I trust that you've learned from them. Next week, we'll have two GRE listeners here on the show, regular listeners, perhaps people more like you, because you can probably relate well to their stories. Until then, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.   Speaker 3  51:59   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  52:22   You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info, oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access, and it's got paywalls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers. It's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters. And I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point, because even the word abbreviation is too long. My letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter, you also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text gre 266, 866, while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text GRE TO 66866   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth building, get richeducation.com    

Founder of the Raising Capitalists Foundation and previous co-host of The Real Estate Guys Radio show, Russell Gray, joins Keith to discuss the historical and current devaluation of the U.S. dollar, its impact on investors, and the broader economic implications. Gray highlights how the significant increase in interest rates has trapped equity in properties and affected development. He explains the shift from gold-backed currency to paper money, the role of the Federal Reserve, and the impact of the Bretton Woods Agreement.  Gray emphasizes the importance of understanding macroeconomic trends and advocates for Main Street capitalism to decentralize power and promote productivity. He also criticizes the idea of housing as a human right, arguing it leads to inflation and shortages. Resources: Connect with Russell Gray to learn more about his "Raising Capitalists" project and his plans for a new show. Follow up with Russell Gray to get a copy of the Beardsley Rummel speech transcript from 1946. follow@russellgray.com Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/558 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”.  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE’ to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai  Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, what's the real backstory on why we have this thing called the dollar? Why it keeps getting debased? What you can do about it and when the dollar will die? It's a lesson in monetary history. And our distinguished guest is a familiar voice that you haven't heard in a while. Today on get rich education.   Mid south home buyers, I mean, they're total pros, with over two decades as the nation's highest rated turnkey provider, their empathetic property managers use your ROI as their North Star. So it's no wonder that smart investors just keep lining up to get their completely renovated income properties like it's the newest iPhone. They're headquartered in Memphis and have globally attractive cash flows and A plus rating with a better business bureau and now over 5000 houses renovated. There's zero markup on maintenance. Let that sink in, and they average a 98.9% occupancy rate, while their average renter stays more than three and a half years. Every home they offer has brand new components, a bumper to bumper, one year warranty, new 30 year roofs. And wait for it, a high quality renter. Remember that part and in an astounding price range, 100 to 180k I've personally toured their office and their properties in person in Memphis, get to know Mid South. Enjoy cash flow from day one. Start yourself right now at mid southhomebuyers.com that's mid south homebuyers.com   Russell Gray  1:54   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  2:10   Welcome to GRE from St John's Newfoundland to St Augustine, Florida and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith weinholden. You are inside get rich education. It's 2025. The real estate market is changing. We'll get into that in future. Weeks today. Over the past 100 years plus, we've gone from sound money to Monopoly money, and we're talking about America's currency collapse. What comes next and how it affects you as both an investor and a citizen.   I'd like to welcome in longtime friend of the show and someone that I've personally learned from over the years, because he's a brilliant teacher, real estate investors probably haven't heard his voice as much lately, because until last year, he had been the co host of the terrific real estate guys radio show for nearly 20 years. Before we're done today, you'll learn more about what he's doing now, as he runs the Main Street capitalist platform and is also founder of the raising capitalists foundation. Hey, it's been a few years. Welcome back to GRE Russell Gray.   Russell Gray  3:19   yeah, it's fun. I actually think it's been maybe 10 years when I think about it, I remember I was at a little resort in Mexico recording with you, I think in the gym. It was just audio back then, no video.    Keith Weinhold  3:24   Yeah, I remember we're trying to get the audio right. Then I think you've been here more recently than 10 years ago. But yeah, now there's this video component. I actually have to sit up straight and comb my hair. It's ridiculous. Well, Russ, you're also a buff of monetary history. And before we discuss that, talk about the state of the real estate market today, just briefly, from your vantage point.   Russell Gray 1  3:55    I think the big story, and I'm probably not telling anybody anything they don't know, but the interest rate hike cycle that we went through this last round was quite a bit more substantial, I think, than a lot of people really appreciated, you know. And I started talking about that many years ago, because when you hit the zero bound and you have 6,7,8, years of interest rates below half a point, the change when they started that interest rate cycle from point two, 525 basis points all the way up to five and a quarter? That's a 20x move. And people might say, well, oh, you know, I go back to what Paul Volcker did way back in the day, when he took interest rates from eight or nine to 18. That was only a little bit more than double. Double is a far cry from 20x so we've never seen anything like that. Part of the fallout of that, as you know, is a lot of people wisely, and I was on the front end of cheerleading This is go get those loans refinanced and lock in that cheap money for as long as possible, because a loan will actually become an asset. The problem is, when you do that, you're kind of married to that property. Now it's not quite as bad. As being upside down in a property and you can't get out of it, but it's really hard to walk away from a two or 3% loan in a Six 7% market, because you really can't take your same payment and end up getting more house. And so that equity is kind of a little bit trapped, and that creates some opportunities, but I think that's been the big story, and then kind of the byproduct of the story. Second tier of the story was the impact it had on development, because it made it a lot harder for developers to develop, because their cost of funds and everything in that supply chain, food chain, you marry that to the 2020, COVID Supply Chain lockdown and that disruption, which, you know, you don't shut an economy down and just flick a switch and have it come back on. And so there's all of that. And then the third thing is just this tremendous uncertainty everybody has, because we just went from one extreme to another. And I think people, you know, they don't want to, like, rock the boat, they're going to kind of stay status quo for a little bit, whether they're businesses, whether they're homeowners, whether they're anybody out there that's thinking about moving them, unless life forces you to do it, you're going to try to stay status quo until things calm down. And I don't know how close we are to things calming down.   Keith Weinhold  6:13   One word I use is normalized. Both the 30 year fixed rate mortgage and the Fed funds rate are pretty close to their long term historic average. It just doesn't feel that way, because it was that rate of increase in 2022 that caught a lot of people off guard, like you touched on Well, Russ, now that we've talked about the present day, let's go back in time, and then we'll slowly bring things up to the present day. The dollar is troubled. It's worth perhaps 3% of what it was 100 years ago, but it's still around since it was established in the Coinage Act of 1792 and it's still the world reserve currency. In fact, only three currencies have survived longer than the dollar, the British pound, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. So talk to us about this really relentless debasement of the dollar over time, including the creation of the Fed and the Bretton Woods Agreement and all that.   Russell Gray 7:09   That's a big story, as you know, and I always like to try to break it down a little bit. One of my specialties I'd like to believe, is I speak macro and I speak Main Street. And so when I try to break macroeconomics down, I start out with, why do I even care? I mean, if I'm a main street investor, why do I even care? In 2008 as you know, is a wipeout for me. Why? Because I didn't think anything had happened in the macro I didn't think Wall Street bond market. I didn't think that affected me. One thing I really cared about was interest rates. And I had a cursory interest in the bond market. We just try to figure out where interest rates were going. But for the most part, I thought, as a main street real estate investor, I was 100% insulated. I couldn't have been more wrong, because it really does matter, because the value of the dollar, in other words, the purchasing power of the dollar, and usually you refer to that as inflation, right? If inflation is there, the dollar is losing its purchasing power, and so the higher the inflation rate, the faster you're losing that purchasing power. And you might say, well, maybe that matters to me. Maybe it does. But the people who make the money available to the mortgage community, right to the real estate community to borrow that comes out of the bond market. And so when people go to buy a bond, which is an IOU, they're going to get paid back in the currency that they lent in, in this case, dollars. And if they know, if they're making a long term investment in a long term bond, and they're going to get paid back in dollars, they're going to be worth a whole lot less when they get them back. One of the things they're going to want is compensation for that time risk, and that's called higher interest rates. Okay, so now, if you're a main street investor, and higher interest rates impact you, now you understand why you want to pay attention. Okay, so let's just start with that. And so once you understand that the currency is a derivative of money, and money used to be you mentioned the Coinage Act Keith money, which is gold, used to be synonymous with the dollar. The dollar was only a unit of measure of gold, 1/20 of an ounce. It was a unit of measure. So it's like, the way I teach people is, like, if you had a gallon of milk and you traded, I'm a farmer, and I had a lot of milk, and so everybody decided they were going to use gallons of milk as their currency. Hey, where there's a lot of gallons of milk. He's got a big refrigerator. We'll just trade gallons of milk. Hey, Keith, I really like your beef. I you know, will you sell me some, a side of beef, and I'll give you, you know, 100 gallons of milk, you know, like, Oh, that's great. Well, I can't drink all this milk, so I'm going to leave the milk on deposit at the dairy, and then later on, when I decide I want a suit of clothes, I'll say, well, that's 10 gallons of milk. So I'll give the guy 10 gallons of milk. So I just give him a coupon, a claim, a piece of paper for that gallon of milk, or 20 gallons of milk, and he can go to the dairy and pick it up, right? And so that's kind of the way the monetary system evolved, except it wasn't milk, it was gold. So now you got the dollar. Well, after a while, nobody's going to get the milk. They don't care about the milk. And so now. Now, instead of just saying, I'll give you a gallon of milk, you just say, well, I'll give you a gallon. And somebody says, Okay, that's great. I'll take a gallon. They never opened the jug up. They never realized the jug is empty. They're just trading these empty jugs that used to have milk in them. Well, that's what the paper dollar is today. It went from being a gold certificate payable to bearer on demand, a certain amount of gold, a $20 gold certificate, what looks exactly like a $20 FEDERAL RESERVE NOTE. Today they look exactly the same, except one says FEDERAL RESERVE NOTE, which is an IOU backed by nothing, and the other one said gold certificate, which was payable to bearer on demand, real money. So my point is, is he got money which is a derivative of the productivity, the beef, the soot, the milk, whatever, right? That's the real capital. The real capital is the goods and services we all want. Money is where we store the value of whatever it is we created until we want to trade it for something somebody else created later. And it used to be money and currency were one in the same, but now we've separated that. So now all we do is trade empty gallons, which are empty pieces of paper, and that's currency. So those are derivatives, and the last derivative of that chain is credit. And you had Richard Duncan on your show more than once, and he is famous for kind of having this term. We don't normally have capitalism. We have creditism, right? Everything is credit. Everything is claims on wealth, but it's not real wealth, and it's just when we look at what's going on with our current administration and the drive to become a productive rather than a financialized society, again, as part of this uncertainty that everybody has. Because this is not just a subtle little adjustment on the same course. This is like, No, we're we're going down a completely different path. But fundamentally, your system operates on this currency that is flowing through it, like the blood flowing through your body. And if the blood is bad, your body's sick. And right now, our currency is bad, and so it creates problems, not just for us, but all around the world. And now we're exacerbating that. And I'm not saying it's bad. In fact, I think it's actually it's actually good, but change is what it is, right? I mean, it can be really good to go to the gym and work out before we started recording, you talked about your commitment to fitness, and that if you stop working out, you get unfit, and it's hard to start up again. Well, we've allowed our economy to get very unfit. Now we're trying to get fit again, and it's going to be painful. We're going to be sore, but if we stick with it, I think we can actually kind of save this thing. So I don't know what that's going to mean for the dollar ultimately, or if we end up going to something else, but right now, to your point, the dollar is definitely the big dog still, but I think it's probably even more under attack today than it's ever been, and so it's just something I think every Main Street investor needs to pay attention to.    Keith Weinhold  12:46   And it was really that 1913 creation of the Fed, where the Fed's mandates really didn't begin to take effect until 1914 that accelerated this slide in the dollar. Prior to that, it was really just periods of war, like, for example, the Civil War, where we had inflation rise, but then after wars abated, the dollar's strength returned, but that ceased to happen last century.   Russell Gray  13:11   I think there's a much bigger story there. So when we founded the country, we established legal money in the Coinage Act of 1792 we got gold and silver and a specific unit of measure of gold, a specific unit, measure of silver was $1 and that's what money was constitutionally. Alexander Hamilton advocated for the first central bank and got it, but it was issued by Charter, which meant that it was operated by the permission of the Congress. It wasn't institutionalized. It wasn't embedded in the Constitution. It was just something that was granted, like a license. You have a charter to be able to run a bank. When that initial charter came up for renewal, Congress goes, now we're not going to renew it. Well, of course, that made the bankers really upset, because bankers have a pretty good gig, right? They get to just loan people money. They don't have to do any real work, and then they make money on just kind of arbitraging, you know, other people's money. Savers put their money in, and they borrowed the money out, and then they with fractional reserve, they're able to magnify that. So it's, it's kind of a cool gig. And so what happened? Then he had the first central bank, so then they got the second central bank, and the second central bank was also issued by charter this time when it came up for renewal, Congress goes, Yeah, let's renew it, right? Because the bankers knew we got to go buy a few congressmen if we want to keep this thing going. But President Andrew Jackson said, No, not going to happen. And it was a big battle. Is a famous quote of him just calling these bankers a brood of vipers. And I'm going to put you down. And God help me, I will, right? I mean, it was like intense fact, I do believe he got shot at one point. I think he died from lead poisoning, because he never got the bullet out. So, you know, when you go to up against the bankers, it's not pretty, but he succeeded. He was the last president that paid off all the debt, balanced budget, paid off all the debt, and we got kind of back on sound money. Well, then a little while later, said, Okay, we're going to need, like, something major, and this would. I should put on. I got my, this is my hat, right now, I'll kind of put it on. This is my, my tin foil hat. Okay? And so I put this on when I kind of go down the rabbit trail a little bit. No, I'm not saying this is what happened, but it wouldn't surprise me, right? Because I know that war is profitable, and so sometimes, you know, your comment was, hey, there's the bank, and then there was, you know, the war, or there's the war, then there's a bank, which comes first the chicken or the egg. I think there's an article where Henry Ford and Thomas Edison went to Congress. I think it was December. The article was published New York Tribune, December 4. I think 1921 you can look it up, New York Tribune, front page article   Keith Weinhold  15:38   fo those of you in the audio only. Russ started donning a tin foil looking hat here about one minute ago.    Russell Gray  15:45   I did, yeah, so I put it on. Just so fair warning. You know, I may go a little conspiratorial, but the reason I do that is I just, I think we've seen enough, just in current, modern history and politics, in the age of AI and software and freedom of speech and new media, there's a lot of weird stuff going on out there, but a lot of stuff that we thought was really weird a little while ago has turned out to be more true than we thought. When you look back in history, and you kind of read the official narrative and you wonder, you kind of read between the lines. You go, oh, maybe some stuff went on here. So anyway, the allegation that Ford made, smart guy, Thomas Edison, smart guy. And they go to Congress, and they go, Hey, we need to get the gold out of the banker's hands, because gold is money, and we need money not to revolve around gold, because the bankers control gold. They control the money, and they make profits, his words, not mine, by starting wars, because he was very upset about World War One, which happened. We got involved right after Fed gets formed in 1913 World War One starts in 1914 the United States sits off in the background and sells everybody, everything. It collects a bunch of gold, and then enters at the end and ends it all. And that big influx created the roaring 20s, as we all know, which ended big boom to big bust. And that cycle, which then a crisis that created, potentially a argument for why the government should have more control, right? So you kind of go down this path. So we ended up in 1865 with President Lincoln suppressing states rights and eventually creating an unconstitutional income tax and then creating an unconstitutional currency. That's what Abraham Lincoln did. And then on the back end of that, you know, it didn't end well for him, and I don't know why, but all I know is that we had a financial crisis in 1907 and the solution to that was the Aldrich plan, which was basically a monopoly on money. It's called a money trust. And Charles Lindbergh, SR was railing against it, as were many people at the time, going, No, this is terrible. So they renamed the Aldrich plan the Federal Reserve Act. And instead of going for a bank charter, they went for a constitutional amendment, and they got it in the 16th Amendment, and that's where we got the IRS. That's where we got the income tax, which was only supposed to be 7% only affect like the top one or 2% of earners, right? And that's where we got, you know, the Federal Reserve. That's where all that was born. Since that happened, to your point, the dollar has been on with a slight little rise up in the 20s, which, you know, there's a whole thing about whether that caused the crash or not. But at the end of the day, if you go look at St Louis Fed, which you go look at all the time, and you just look at the long term trend of the dollar, it's terrible. And the barometer, that's gold, right? $20 of gold in 1913 and 1933 and then 42 in 1971 or two, whatever it was, three, and then eventually as high as 850 but at the turn of the century, this century, it was $250 so at $2,500 it would have lost 90% in the 21st Century. The dollars lost 90% in the 21st Century, just to 2500 that's profound to go. That's right, it already lost more than 90% from $20 to 250 so it lost 90% and then 90% of the 10% that was left. And that's where we're at. We're worse than that. Today, no currency, as far as I understand, I've been told this. Haven't done the homework, but it's my understanding, no currency in the history of the world has ever survived that kind of debasement. So I think a lot of people who are watching are like, okay, it's not a matter of if, it's a matter of when. And then the big question is, is when that when comes? What does the transition look like? What rises in its place? And then you look at things like a central bank digital currency, which is not like Bitcoin, it's not a crypto, it's a centrally controlled currency run by the central bank. If we get that, I would argue that's not good for privacy and security. Could be Bitcoin would be better. I would argue, could go back to gold backing, which I would say is better than what we have, or we could get something nobody's even thought of. I don't know. We don't know, but I do think we're at the end of the life cycle. Historically, all things being equal. And I think all the indication with a big run up of gold, gold is screaming something's broken. It's just screaming it right now, not just because the price is up, but who's buying it. It's just central banks.   Keith Weinhold  20:12   Central banks are doing most of the buying, right? It's not individual investors going to a coin shop. So that's really screaming, telling you that people are concerned. People are losing their faith in giving loans to the United States for sure. And Russ, as we talk about gold, and it's important link to the dollar over time, you mentioned how they wanted it, to get it out of the bank's hands for a while. Of course, there was also a period of time where it was illegal for Americans to own gold. And then we had this Bretton Woods Agreement, which was really important as well, where we ended up violating promises that had to do with gold again. So can you speak to us some more about that? Because a lot of people just don't understand what happened at Bretton Woods.   Russell Gray  20:56   What happened is we had the big crash in 1929 and the net result of that was, in 1933 we got executive order 6102 In fact, I have a picture of it framed, and that was in the wake of that in 1933 and so what Franklin Delano Roosevelt did in signing that document, which was empowered by a previous act of Congress, basically let him confiscate all The money. It'd be like right now if, right now, you know, President Trump signed an executive order and said, You have to take all your cash, every all the cash that you have out of your wallet. You have to send it all, take it into the bank, and they're going to give you a Chuck E Cheese token, right? And if you don't do it, if you do it, it's a $500,000 fine in 10 years in prison. Right? Back then it was a $10,000 fine, which was twice the price of the average Home huge fine, plus jail time. That's how severe it was, okay? So they confiscated all the money. That happened in 33 okay? Now we go off to war, and we enter the war late again. And so we have the big manufacturing operation. We're selling munitions and all kinds of supplies to everybody, all over the world, right? And we're just raking the gold and 20,000 tons of gold. We got all the gold. We got the biggest army now, we got the biggest bomb, we got the biggest economy. We got the strongest balance sheet. Well, I mean, you know, we went into debt for the war, but, I mean, we had a lot of gold. So now everybody else is decimated. We're the big dog. Everybody knows we're the big dog. Nine states shows up in New Hampshire Bretton Woods, and they have this big meeting with the world, and they say, Hey guys, new sheriff in town. Britain used to be the world's reserve currency, but today we're going to be the world's reserve currency. And so this was the new setup. But it's okay. It's okay because our dollar is as good as gold. It's backed by gold, and so anytime you want foreign nations, you can just bring your dollars to us and we'll give you the gold, no problem. And everyone's like, okay, great. What are you going to say? Right? You got the big bomb, you got the big army. Everybody needs you for everything to live like you're not going to say no. So they said, Yes, of course, the United States immediately. I've got a speech that a guy named Beardsley Rummel did. Have you ever heard me talk about this before? Keith, No, I've never heard about this. So Beardsley Rummel was the New York Fed chair when all this was happening. And so he gave a speech to the American Bar Association in 1945 and I got a transcript of it, a PDF transcript of it from 1946 and basically he goes, Look, income taxes are obsolete. We don't need income tax anymore because we can print money, because we're off the gold standard and we have no accountability. We just admitted it, just totally admitted it, and said the only reason we have income tax is to manipulate behavior, is to redistribute wealth, is to force people to do what we want them to do, punish things and reward others, right? Just set it plain language. I have a transcript of the speech. You can get a copy of you send an email to Rummel R U, M, L@mainstreetcapitalist.com I'll get it to you. So it's really, really interesting. So he admitted it. So we went along in the 40s and the 50s, and, you know, we had the only big manufacturing you know, because everybody else is still recovering from the war. Everything been bombed to smithereens, and we're spending money and doing all kinds of stuff. And having the 50s, it was great, right, right up until the mid 60s. So the mid 60s, it's like, Okay, we got a problem. And Charles de Gaulle, who was the president of France at the time, went to a meeting. And there's a YouTube video, but you can see it, he basically told the world, hey, I don't think the United States is doing a good job managing this world's reserve currency. I don't think they've got the gold. I think they printed too much money. I think that we should start to go redeem our dollars and get the gold. That was pretty forward thinking. And he created a run on the bank. And at the same time, we passed the Coinage Act in 1965 and took all the silver out of the people's money. So we took the gold in 33 and then we took the silver in 65 right? Because we got Vietnam and the Great Society, welfare, all these things were going on in the 60s. We're just going broke. Meanwhile, our gold supply went from 20,000 tons down to eight and Richard. Nixon is like, whoa, time out. Like, this is bad. And so we had inflation in 1970 August 15, 1971 year before August 15, 1971 1970 Nixon writes an executive order and freezes all prices and all wages. It became illegal by presidential edict for a private business to give their employee a raise or to raise their prices to the customers.    Keith Weinhold  25:30   It's almost if that could happen price in theUnited States of America, right?    Russell Gray  25:36   And inflation was 4.4% and it was a national emergency like today. I mean, you know, a few years ago, like three or four years ago, we if we could get it down 4.4% it'd be Holly. I'd be like a celebration. That was bad. And so that's what happened. So a year later, that didn't work. It was a 90 day thing. It was a disaster. And so in a year later, August 15, 1971 Nixon came on live TV after Gunsmoke. I think it was, and I was old enough I'm watching TV on a Sunday night I watched it. Wow. So I live, that's how old I am. So it's a lot of this history, not the Bretton Woods stuff, but from like 1960 2,3,4, forward. I remember I was there.    Keith Weinhold  26:13   Yeah, that you remember the whole Nixon address on television. We should say it for the listener that doesn't know. Basically the announcement Nixon made, he said, was a temporary measure, is that foreign nations can no longer redeem their dollars for gold. He broke the promise that was made at Bretton Woods in about 1945   Russell Gray  26:32   Yeah. And then gold went from $42 up to 850 and a whole series of events that have led to where we're at today were put in place to cover up the fact that the dollar was failing. We had climate emergency. We were headed towards the next global Ice Age. We had an existential threat in two different diseases that hit one right after the other. First one was the h1 n1 flu, swine flu, and then the next thing was AIDS. And so we had existential pandemic, two of them. We also had a oil shortage crisis. We were going to run out of fossil fuel by the year 2000 we had to do all kinds of very public, visible, visceral things that we would all see. You could only buy gas odd even days, like, if your license plate ended in an odd number, you could go on these days, and if it ended on an even number, you could go on the other days. And so we had that. We lowered our national speed limit down to 55 miles an hour. We created the EPA and all these different agencies under Jimmy Carter to try to regulate and manage all of this crisis. Prior to that, Nixon sent Kissinger over to China, and we opened up trade relations. And we'd been in Vietnam to protect the world from communism because it was so horrible. And then in the wake of that, we go over to Communist China, Chairman Mao and open up trade relations. Why we needed access to their cheap labor to suck up all the inflation. And we went over to the Saudis, and we cut the petro dollar deal. Why? Because we needed the float. We needed some place for all these excess dollars that we had created to get sucked up. And so they got sucked up in trading the largest commodity in the world, energy. And the deal was, hey, Saudis, here's the deal. You like your kingdom? Well, we got the big bomb. We got the big army. You're going to rule the roost in the in the Middle East, and we'll protect you. All you got to do is make sure you sell all your oil in dollars and dollars only. And they're like, Well, what if we're selling oil to China, or what if we're selling oil to Japan? Can they pay in yen? Nope, they got to sell yen. Buy dollars. Well, what do we do with all these dollars? Buy our treasuries. Okay, so what if I got this? Yeah, and so that was the petrodollar system. And the world looked at everything went on, and the world is like, Hmm, the United States coming back to Europe, and Charles de Gaulle, they're like, the United States is not handling this whole dollar thing real well. We need an alternative. What if all of us independent nations in Europe got together and created a common currency? We don't want to be like one country, like the United States, but we want to be like an economic union. So let's create a current let's call it the euro. And they started that process in the 70s, but they didn't get it done till 99 and so they get it done in 99 as soon as they get it done, this guy named Saddam Hussein goes, Hey, I'm now the big dog here. I got the fourth largest army in the world. I'm here in, you know, big oil producing nation. Let's trade in the euro. Let's get off the dollar. Let's do oil in the euro. And he's gone. I'm not sure I should put my hat back on. I'm not sure, but somehow we went into Afghanistan and took a hard left and took this guy out.   Keith Weinhold  29:44   Some credence to this. Yes, yeah, so. But with that said,   Russell Gray  29:47   you know, we ended up with the Euro taking about 20% of the global trade market from the United States, which is about where it sits today. And the United States used to be up over 80% and now we're down below 60% still. The Big Dog by triple and the euro is not in a position to supplant the US, but I think China, whose claim to fame is looking at other people's technology and models and copying it, looked at what the United States did to become the dominant economic force, and I think they've systematically been copying it. I wrote a report on this way back in 2013 when I started really paying attention to it and began to chronicle all the things that they were doing, this big D dollarization movement that I think still has legs. It's the BRICS movement. It's all the central banks buying gold. It's the bilateral trade agreements where people are doing business outside the dollar. There's been not just that, but also putting together the infrastructure, right? The Asian Infrastructure Bank is an alternative to the IMF looking, if you have you read Confessions of an economic hitman. No. Okay, so this is a guy that used to work in the government, I think, CIA or something, and he would go down and he'd cut deals with leaders of countries to get them to borrow from the United States to put in key infrastructure so they could trade with the US. And then, of course, if they defaulted, then the US owned that in the infrastructure. You can look it up. His name is Perkins, right. Look it up confessions of economic hit now, but you see China doing the same thing. China's got their Belt and Road Initiative. And you go through, and if you want to trade with China on that route, you have traded, you're gonna have to have infrastructure. You can eat ports. You're gonna need terminals for distribution. But you, Oh, you don't have the money. We'll loan it to you, and we'll loan it to you and you want. Now we're creating demand for you want, and we also are enslaving borrower servant to the lender. We're beginning to enslave these other nations under the guise of helping them by financing their growth so they can do business with us. It's the same thing the United States did and Shanghai Gold Exchange, as opposed to the London Bullion exchange. So all of the key pieces of infrastructure that were put in place to facilitate Western hegemony in the financial markets the Chinese have been systematically putting in place with bricks, and so there's a reason we're in this big trade war right now. We recognize that they had started to get in a position where they were actually a real threat, and we got to cut their legs out from underneath them before they get any stronger. Again, I should put my hat back on. Nobody's calling me up and telling me, I'm just reading between the lines. Sure,   Keith Weinhold  32:23   there certainly are more competitors to the dollar now. And can you imagine what rate of inflation that we would have had if we had not outsourced our labor and productivity over to a low wage place like China in the east? Russ and I have been talking about the long term debasement of the dollar and why. More on that when we come back, including what Russ is up to today. You're listening to get rich education. Our guest is Russell Gray. I'm your host, Keith Weinhold, the same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your pre qual and even chat with President Chaley Ridge personally while it's on your mind, start at Ridge lendinggroup.com that's Ridge lendinggroup.com. You know what's crazy? Your bank is getting rich off of you. The average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I started putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns, and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading. It's pretty low risk because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time, in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. You can invest as little as 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back. No weird lockups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds just sitting there doing nothing. Check it out. Text family, 266, 866, to learn about freedom family investments, liquidity fund again. Text family, 266, 866,   Garrett Sutton  34:36   hi. This is Rich Dad advisor, Garrett Sutton. You're listening to the always valuable. Get rich education with Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.    Keith Weinhold  34:52   Welcome back to get rich education. We're talking with the main street capitalists Russell gray about this long term debasement of the dollar. It's an. Inevitable. It's one of the things we actually can forecast with pretty good predictability that the dollar will continue to debase. It's one of the few almost guarantees that we have in investing. So we can think about how we want to play that Russ one thing I wonder about is, did we have to completely de peg the dollar from gold? Couldn't we have just diluted it where we could instead say, Well, hey, now, instead of just completely depegging the dollar from gold, we could say, well, now it takes 10 times as many dollars as it used to to redeem it for an ounce of gold. Did it make it more powerful that we just completely de pegged it 100%   Russell Gray  35:36   it would disempower the monopoly. Right? In other words, I think that the thing from the very beginning, was scripted to disconnect from the accountability of gold, which is what sound money advocates want. They want some form of independent Accountability. Gold is like an audit to a financial system. If you're the bankers and you're running the program, the last thing in the world you want is a gold standard, because it limits your ability to print money out of thin air and profit from that. So I don't think the people who are behind all of this are, in no way, shape or form, interested in doing anything that's going to limit their power or hold them accountable. They want just the opposite. I think if they could wave a magic wand and pick their solution to the problem, it would be central bank digital currency, which would give them ultimate control. Yeah. And it wouldn't surprise me if we maybe, perhaps, were on a path where some crises were going to converge, whether it's opportunistic, meaning that the crisis happened on its own, and quote Rahm Emanuel and whoever he was quoting, you know, never let a good crisis go to waste, and you're just opportunistic, or, you know, put the conspiracy theory hat on, and maybe these crises get created in order to facilitate the power grab. I don't know. It really doesn't matter what the motives are or how it happens at the end of the day, it's what happens. It happened in 33 it happened in 60. In 71 it's what happens. And so it's been a systematic de pegging of any form of accountability. I mean, we used to have a budget ceiling. We used to talk about now it's just like, it's routine. You blow right through it, right, right. There's you balance. I mean, when's the last time you even had a budget? Less, less, you know, much less anything that looked like a valid balanced budget amendment. So I think there's just no accountability other than the voting booth. And, you know, I think maybe you could make the argument that whether you like Trump or not, the public's apparent embrace of him, show you that the main street and have a lot of faith in Main Street. I think Main Street is like, you know what? This is broken. I don't know what's how to fix it, but somebody just needs to go in and just tear this thing down and figure out a new plant. Because I think if you anybody paying attention, knows that this perpetual debasement, which is kind of the theme of the show is it creates haves and have nots. Guys like you who understand how to use real estate to short the dollar, especially when you marry it to gold, which is one of my favorite strategies to double short the dollar, can really magnify the power of inflation to pull more wealth onto your balance sheet. Problem is the people who aren't on that side of the coin are on the other side of the coin, and so the poor get poorer and the rich get richer. Well, the first order of business in a system we can't control is help as many people be on the rich get richer. That's why we had the get rich show, right? Let's help other people get rich. Because if I'm the only rich guy in the room, all the guns are pointed at me, right? I wanted everybody as rich as possible. I think Trump and Kiyosaki wrote about that in their book. Why we want you to be rich, right? When everybody's prospering, it's it's better, it's safer, you have people to trade with and whatnot, but we have eviscerated the middle class because industry has had to go access cheap labor markets in order to compensate for this inflation. And you know, you talk about the Fed mandate, which is 2% inflation, price inflation, 2% so if you say something that costs $1 today, a year from now, is going to cost $1 too, you think, well, maybe that's not that bad. But here's the problem, the natural progression of Business and Technology is to lower the cost, right? So you have something cost $1 today, and because somebody's using AI and internet and automation and robots and all this technology, right? And the cost, they could really sell it for 80 cents. And so the Fed looks at and goes, Let's inflate to $1.02 that's not two cents of inflation. That's 22 cents of inflation. And so there's hidden inflation. The benefits of the gains in productivity don't show up in the CPI, but it's like deferred maintenance on an apartment building. You can make your cash flow look great if you're not setting anything aside for the inevitable day when that roof is going to go out and that parking lot is going to need to be repaved, right? And you don't know how far out you are until you get there and you're like, wow, I'm really short, and I think that we have been experiencing for decades. The theft of the benefit of our productivity gains, and we're not just a little bit out of position. We're way out of position. That's   Keith Weinhold  40:07   a great point. Like I had said earlier, imagine what the rate of inflation would be if we hadn't outsourced so much of our labor and productivity to low cost China. And then imagine what the rate of inflation would be as well, if you would factor in all of this increased productivity and efficiency, the natural tendencies of which are to make prices go lower as society gets more productive, but instead they've gone higher. So when you adjust for some of these factors, you just can't imagine what the true debased purchasing power of the dollar is. It's been happening for a long time. It's inevitable that it's going to continue to happen in the future. So this has been a great chat about the history and us understanding what the powers that be have done to debase our dollar. It's only at what rate we don't know. Russ, tell us more about what you're doing today. You're really out there more as a champion for Main Street in capitalism.   Russell Gray  41:04   I mean, 20 years with Robert and the real estate guys, and it was fantastic. I loved it. I went through a lot, obviously, in 2008 and that changed me a little bit. Took me from kind of being a blocking and tackling, here's how you do real estate, and to really understanding macro and going, you know, it doesn't matter. You can do like I did, and you build this big collection. Big collection of properties and you lose it all in a moment because you don't understand macro. So I said, Okay, I want to champion that cause. And so we did that. And then we saw in the 2012 JOBS Act, the opportunity for capital raisers to go mainstream and advertise for credit investors. And I wrote a report then called the new law breaks Wall Street monopoly. And I felt like that was going to be a huge opportunity, and we pioneered that. But then after my late wife died, and I had a chance to spend some time alone during COVID, and I thought, life is short. What do I really want to accomplish before I go? And then I began looking at what was going on in the world. I see now a couple of things that are both opportunities and challenges or causes to be championed. And one is the mega trend that I believe the world is going you know, some people call it a fourth turning whatever. I don't consider that kind of we have to fall off a cliff as Destiny type of thing to be like cast in stone. But what I do see is that people are sick and tired of monopolies. We're sick and tired of big tech, we're sick and tired of big media, we're sick and tired of big government. We're sick and tired of big corporations, we don't want it, and big banks, right? So you got the rise of Bitcoin, you got people trying to get out from underneath the Western hegemony, as we've been talking about decentralization of everything. Our country was founded on the concept of decentralization, and so people don't understand that, right? It used to be everything was centralized. All powers in the king. Real Estate meant royal property. That's what real estate it's not like real asset, like tangible it's royal estate. It's royal property. Everything belonged to the king, and you just got to work it like a serf. And then you got to keep 75% in your produce, and you sent 25% you sent 25% through all the landlords, the land barons, and all the people in the hierarchy that fed on running things for the king, but you didn't own anything. Our founder set that on, turn that upside down, and said, No, no, no, no, no, it's not the king that's sovereign. It's the individual. The individual is sovereign. It isn't the monarchy, it's the individual states. And so we're going to bring the government, small. The central government small has only got a couple of obligations, like protect the borders, facilitate interstate commerce, and let's just have one common currency so that we can do business together. Other than that, like, the state's just going to run the show. Of course, Lincoln kind of blew that up, and it's gotten a lot worse after FDR, so I feel like we're under this big decentralization movement, and I think Main Street capitalism is the manifestation of that. If you want to decentralize capitalism, the gig economy, if you want to be a guy like you, and you can run your whole business off your laptop with a microphone and a camera, you know, in today's day and age with technology, people have tasted the freedom of decentralization. So I think the rise of the entrepreneur, I think the ability to go build a real asset portfolio and get out of the casinos of Wall Street. I think right now, if we are successful in bringing back these huge amounts of investment, Trump's already announced like two and a half or $3 trillion of investment, people are complaining, oh, the world is selling us. Well, they're selling stocks and they're selling but they're putting the money actually into creating businesses here in the United States that's going to create that primary driver, as you well know, in real estate, that's going to create the secondary and tertiary businesses, and the properties they're going to use all kinds of Main Street opportunity are going to grow around that. I lived in Silicon Valley, when a company would get funded, it wasn't just a company that prospered, it was everything around that company, right? All these companies. I remember when Apple started. I remember when Hewlett Packard, it was big, but it got a lot bigger, right there. I watched all that happen in Silicon Valley. I think that's going to happen again. I think we're at the front end of that. And so that's super exciting. Wave. The second thing that is super important is this raising capitalist project. And the reason I'm doing it is because if we don't train our next generation in the principles of capitalism and the freedom that it how it decentralizes Their personal economy, and they get excited about Bitcoin, but that's not productive. I'm not putting it down. I'm just saying it's not productive. You have to be productive. You want to have a decentralized currency. Yes, you want to decentralize productivity. That's Main Street capitalism. If kids who never get a chance to be in the productive economy get to vote at 1819, 2021, 22 before they've ever earned a paycheck, before they have any idea, never run a business. Somebody tells them, hey, those guys that have all that money and property, they cheated. It's not fair. We need to take from them. We need to limit them, not thinking, Oh, well, if I do that, when I get to be there, that what I'm voting for is going to get on me. Right now, Keith, there are kids in ninth grade who are going to vote for your next president, right?   Keith Weinhold  45:56   And they think capitalism is evil. This is part of what you're doing with the raising capitalists project, helping younger people think differently. Russ, I have one last thing to ask you. This has to do with the capitalism that you're championing on your platforms now. And real estate, I continue to see sometimes I get comments on my YouTube channel, especially maybe it's more and more people increasingly saying, Hey, I think housing should be a human right. So talk to us about that. And maybe it's interesting, Russ, if I take the other side of it and play devil's advocate, people who think housing is a human right, they say something like, the idea is that housing, you know, it's a fundamental need, just like food and clean water and health care are without stable housing. It's incredibly hard for a person to access opportunities like work and education or health care or participate meaningfully in society at all. So government ought to provide housing for everybody. What are your thoughts there?   Russell Gray  46:54   Well, it's inherently inflationary, which is the root cause of the entire problem. So anytime you create consumption without production, you're going to have more consumers than producers, and so you're going to have more competition for those goods. The net, net truth of what happens in that scenario are shortages everywhere. Every civilization that's ever tried any form of system where people just get things for free because they need them, end up with shortages in poverty. It doesn't lift everybody. It ruins everything. I mean, that's not conjecture. That's history, and so that's just the way it works. And if you just were to land somebody on a desert island and you had an economy of one, they're going to learn really quick the basic principles of capitalism, which is production always precedes consumption, always 100% of the time, right? If you're there on that desert island and you don't hunt fish or gather, you don't eat, right? You don't get it because, oh, it's a human right to have food. Nope, it's a human right to have the right to go get food. Otherwise, you're incarcerated, you have to have the freedom of movement to go do something to provide for yourself, but you cannot allow people to consume without production. So everybody has to produce. And you know, if you go back to the Plymouth Rock experiment, if you're familiar with that at all, yeah, yeah. So you know, just for anybody who doesn't know, when the Pilgrims came over here in the 1600s William Bradford was governor, and they tried it. They said, Hey, we're here. Let's Stick Together All for one and one for all. Here's the land. Everybody get up every day and work. Everybody works, and everybody eats. They starved. And so he goes, Okay, guys, new plan. All right, you wine holds. See this little plot of land, that's yours. You work it. You can eat whatever you produce. Over there, you grace. You're going to do yours and Johnson's, you're going to do yours, right? Well, what happened is now everybody got up and worked, and they created more than enough for their own family, and they had an abundance. And the abundance was created out of their hunger. When they went to serve their own needs, they created abundance forever others. That's the premise of capitalism. It's not the perfect system. There is no perfect system. We live in a world where human beings have to work before they get to eat. When I say eat, it could be having a roof over their head. It could be having clothes. It could be going on vacation. It could be having a nice car. It could be getting health care. It doesn't matter what it is, whatever it is you need. You have the right, or should have, the right, in a free system to go earn that by being productive, but the minute somebody comes and says, Oh, you worked, and I'm going to take what you produced and give it to somebody else who didn't, that's patently unfair, but economically, it's disastrous, because it incentivizes people not to work, which creates less production, more consumption. I have another analogy with sandwich makers, but you can imagine that if you got a group if you got a group of people making sandwiches, one guy starts creating coupons for sandwiches. Well then if somebody says, Okay, well now we got 19 people providing for 20. That's okay, but then all the guys making sandwiches. Why making sandwiches? I'm gonna get the coupon business pretty soon. You got 18 guys doing coupons, only two making sandwiches. Not. Have sandwiches to go around all the sandwiches cost tons of coupons because we got way more financialization than productivity, right? That's the American economy. We have to fix that. We can't have people making money by just trading on other people's productivity. We have to have people actually being productive. This is what I believe the administration is trying to do, rebuild the middle class, rebuild that manufacturing base, make us a truly productive economy, and then you don't have to worry about these things, right? We're going to create abundance. And if you don't have the inflation is which is coming from printing money out of thin air and giving to people who don't produce, then housing, all sudden, becomes affordable. It's not a problem. Health care becomes affordable. Everything becomes affordable because you create abundance, because everybody's producing the system is fundamentally broken. Now we have to learn how to profit in it in its current state, which is what you teach people how to do. We also have to realize that it's not sustainable. We're on an unsustainable path, and we're probably nearing that event horizon, the path of no return, where the system is going to break. And the question is, is, how are you going to be prepared for it when it happens? Number two, are you going to be wise enough to advocate when you get a chance to cast a vote or make your voice heard for something that's actually going to create prosperity and freedom versus something that's going to create scarcity and oppression? And that's the fundamental thing that we have to master as a society. We got to get to our youth, because they're the biggest demographic that can blow the thing up, and they're the ones that have been being indoctrinated the worst.   Keith Weinhold  51:29   Yes, Fed Chair Jerome Powell himself said that we live in a economic system today that is unsustainable. Yes, the collectivism we touched on quickly descends into the tyranny of the majority. And in my experience, historically, the success of public housing projects has been or to mixed at best, residents often don't respect the property when they don't have an equity stake in it or even a security deposit tied up in it, and blight and high crime rates have often followed with these public housing projects. When you go down that path of making housing as a human right, like you said earlier, you have a right to go procure housing for yourself, just not to ask others to pay for it for you. Well, Russ, this has been great. It's good to have your voice back on the show. Here again, here on a real estate show. If people want to connect with you, continue to see what you've been up to and the good projects that you're working on, promoting the virtues of capitalism. What's the best way for them to do that?   Russell Gray  52:31   I think just send an email to follow at Russell Gray, R, U, S, S, E, L, L, G, R, A, y.com, let you know where I am on social media. I'll let you know when I put out new content. I'll let you know when I'm a guest on somebody somebody's show and I'm on the cusp of getting my own show finally launched. I've been doing a lot of planning to get that out, but I'm excited about it because I do think, like I said, The time is now, and I think the marketplace is ripe, and I do speak Main Street and macro, and I hope I can add a nuance to the conversation that will add value to people.   Keith Weinhold  53:00   Russ, it's been valuable as always. Thanks so much for coming back onto the show. Thanks, Keith.   Yeah, terrific, historic outline from Russ about the long term decline of the dollar. It's really a fresh reminder and motivator to keep being that savvy borrower. Of course, real estate investors have access to borrow giant sums of dollars and short the currency that lay people do not. In fact, lay people don't even understand that it's a viable strategy at all. Like he touched on, Russ has really been bringing an awareness about how decentralization is such a powerful force that reshapes society. In fact, he was talking about that the last time that I saw him in person a few months ago. Notably, he touched on Nixon era wage and price controls. Don't you find it interesting? Fascinating, really, how a few weeks ago, Trump told Walmart not to pass tariff induced price increases onto their customers. Well, that's a form of price control that we're seeing today to our point, when we had the father of Reaganomics, David Stockman here on the show, five weeks ago, tariffs are already government intervention into the free market, and then a president telling private companies how to set their prices, that is really strong government overreach. I mean, I can't believe that more people aren't talking about this. Maybe that's just because this cycle started with Walmart, and that's just doesn't happen to be a company that people feel sorry for. Hey, well, I look forward to meeting you in person in Miami in just four days, as I'll be a faculty member for when we kick off the terrific real estate guys Investor Summit and see and really getting to know you, because we're going to spend nine days together. Teaching, learning and having a great time on a cruise ship in the Caribbean. Until then, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.   Speaker 3  55:13   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC, exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  55:36   You know whatever you want, the best written real estate and finance info. Oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access and it's got pay walls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers. It's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read. And when you start the letter, you also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text. GRE to 66866, while it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text, GRE to 66866   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com.

Keith Weinhold plays a “financial superhero”, defending investors against the "greedy landlord" myth. A Zillow survey reveals the secret sauce of rental success: budget, location, and bedroom count - with pets stealing the show as the ultimate tenant dealbreaker. He exposes the dollar's sneaky inflation plot, showing how savvy investors can turn borrowing into a wealth-building adventure. Imagine homes that cost half their gold price from 100 years ago - mind-blowing!  Real estate investing isn't just a strategy - it's an epic journey of wealth creation!  Resources: GREmarketplace.com/OklahomaCity GREmarketplace.com/Tulsa Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/episode/557 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE’ to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai    Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE I'm your host, Keith Weinhold. Are Real Estate Investors greedy by nature? Learn why? In a sense, today's homes are actually half price compared to 100 years ago. Then results from a huge tenant survey that reveals the amenities that you must give renters or else they will leave how media headlines can trick you and more today on get rich education.   Mid south home buyers, I mean, they're total pros, with over two decades as the nation's highest rated turnkey provider. Their empathetic property managers use your ROI as their North Star. So it's no wonder that smart investors just keep lining up to get their completely renovated income properties like it's the newest iPhone. They're headquartered in Memphis and have globally attractive cash flows and A plus rating with the Better Business Bureau and now over 5000 houses renovated. There's zero markup on maintenance. Let that sink in, and they average a 98.9% occupancy rate, while their average renter stays more than three and a half years. Every home they offer has brand new components, a bumper to bumper, one year warranty, new 30 year roofs. And wait for it, a high quality renter, remember that part and in an astounding price range, 100 to 180k I've personally toured their office and their properties in person in Memphis, get to know Mid South. Enjoy cash flow from day one. Start yourself right now at mid southhomebuyers.com that's mid south homebuyers.com   Corey Coates  1:56   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  2:12   Welcome to GRE from Cape Hatteras, North Carolina to the Cape of Good Hope, South Africa and across 188 nations worldwide. I'm Keith Weinhold, and this is get rich education. 100 years ago, you could buy the average home with eight kilos of gold. Today, it only costs you four more on that later. But first, as a real estate investor, has a critic or a tenant ever insinuated some form of these two questions to you, either, is it ethical for you to own multiple homes, or even, are you greedy? Now, I doubt that you're going to be asked that question directly, but sometimes you can feel that that's the vibe that someone else is on. Well, there sure are greedy people in the world. You could be rich and greedy, or you could be poor and greedy. Even the definition of greed is an excessive and selfish desire for more wealth than one needs, often driven by a destructive motive. All right, that's the definition like you're willing to destroy other people in the pursuit of wealth that is rather different than acquiring wealth, which is usually done only when you first fulfill the needs of others. All right? Well, say that your critic makes $60,000 per year. Oh, well, then that means that they're in the top 1% of global income earners. I mean, sheesh, then they're like the Jeff Bezos of the developing world. So to help even things out, should your critic have to send half of their salary to Senegal or Mauritania or Burkina Faso if the critic's home has more than one bathroom in it, or they even own one car. Well, then they're fabulously wealthy by world standards. Then do they have to give it away to avoid being greedy? What if they ever worked overtime for extra money? Like is that evidence of certain greed? All that stuff is ridiculous, preposterous amounts don't create greed Spirit does. There is no implicit Machiavellian intent. If you have more wealth than average, where would you even draw the line? Like, once you hit seven rental properties? Oh, that's just fine, but eight of them is too many, or once you live in a home that costs 50% more than an area's median, then is that when it becomes greed? I mean, this doesn't make sense. Higher housing prices these past five years has to do with the lack of housing supply and with the. Abundance of dollar printing. It's those two things. The culprits aren't rental property owners. The culprits are burdensome development regulations and the Federal Reserve printing all the dollars, not your local landlord. Responsible landlords provide and maintain sound housing, and they do that for complete strangers, they're taking a lot of faith. Oh, so then could the tenant actually be the greedy one, if they both resent and expect that treatment from a stranger for free? I mean, real estate investors, hey, we take on risk, DEBT, TAXES, maintenance, insurance, market volatility, and we have the responsibility of building and maintaining a good credit score in most cases. I mean, you're the one that's truly invested in the property, not a tenant that can choose to move out in 30 or 60 days. Landlords are a bit like umpires. They're rarely appreciated, and they only get noticed when they do something wrong. I know I mentioned to you before that when I buy a property pretty soon, I casually mention to my tenant that, you know, each month, I just have to make them aware. Each month I make a big mortgage payment and I have to pay for property tax and insurance on this place. I mean, it's amazing to see how far that little mention goes with both timely rent collection and that they don't resent you as a landlord over time. See, tenants often don't know this because they've never owned property themselves, and actually, as you know, since I use property managers now, I don't make this mention to tenants anymore. See, to tenants often it can feel like they're just sort of renting air, and the rent payments they make to you are very visible to them. What's invisible to them are all of your expenses. You're the one as the investor that's contributing to communities. You are the good steward of a neighborhood's housing stock, and you provide homes for people who either can't or don't want to buy the myth of the evil landlord. It really just ignores realities. I mean, mom and pop investors own 72% of single family rental homes, and the typical landlord owns fewer than three units. Many don't have 401 Ks. I mean, rental properties are their retirement plan. So most landlords, real estate investors, they're not cigar chomping tycoons twirling mustaches atop piles of gold like Scrooge McDuck. They're regular people. So perspectives like this that can really help you ward off both critics and unaware tenants. And you know what odds are, if they had the opportunity, they would often do the same thing at a time when pensions are rare and inflation runs rampant. Who could blame anyone for seeking assets that grow in value and generate income. Here's what you need to know. Everyone plays the financial game in the context of their own economy. You Your critic and your tenant, your awareness and your mindset from listening to the show is merely more broad than others. If everyone understood that being wealthy is actually a choice like you do, we would all be better off. So the bottom line here is that real estate investors are not villains. They're just people trying to build a financial life raft in a financial ocean that is full of icebergs. Rich people aren't necessarily greedy, just like poor people aren't necessarily lazy. Greed exists in somebody's spirit, not in the amount of your net worth or whatever your income level is,.    All right., Well, heading into the summer here, there are more tenant moves than any other season. Rental demand has stayed fairly strong, not super strong, just fairly strong, with rents only up about 2% annually. When you amalgamate single family rentals and apartments, the share of rentals with a concession is dropping because the rental market is fairly strong, and when renters find a place, a lot of them are staying put, like it's the last lifeboat off the Titanic. Of course, these are all phenomena on a national level, and each local area is different. I mean that right, there is something that I could say on nearly every episode with low affordability, the home ownership rate is down and renter numbers are up. Now. I told you a while ago that it would go down that home ownership rate, and in the latest quarter ended, that home ownership rate has dropped from 65.7 down to 65.1 Percent. And that might not sound like much, but homeownership down six tenths of 1% in just a quarter. That means that there are at least about 500,000 new renters in America. More renters means more rental demand, more occupancy, and it's crucial for you to know what those renters want so that you can best serve them again. You're not greedy. You're trying to serve them as well as you can now, Zillow has an arm. It's called the Zillow group population science. It's something I hadn't even heard of until recently. What Zillow did with this group is they surveyed 36,000 US renters of both single family rentals and apartments to find out what trends are and what renters want. And I read their entire lengthy report. I think it was 40 pages, so that you don't have to and what I did is I pulled out the most salient pieces to help you attract and retain tenants, and the top three criteria that renters really consider essential when deciding whether or not to rent your property are the first thing, and 95% said this is that it's got To be within their budget, second, at 85% preferred location. Hmm, does that mean near tacos and coffee shops? And then the third most important thing renters consider essential at 84% is the preferred bedroom count. After that, the Floor Plan and the layout that fits their preferences was most important. After that, it's the preferred number of bathrooms. So note that the preferred number of bedrooms, then, is more important in making the rental decision than the preferred number of bathrooms, although they both matter. And then after that, in order of decreasing importance, is broadband internet, allowing pets and having common amenities like a gym, a business center, a rooftop and a lounge and those things, those common amenities, they were substantially more important for apartment renters than for single family home renters, as you would imagine. And here's key, a separate survey question was asked, What is the main reason that you passed on a particular property and decided not to rent it. Number one easily was that the property prohibited pets. The second biggest choice had to do with pets as well. It was that the property restricted the pet breed or size. The reasons that renters passed on a particular property are so centered around pets. What do pets rule this housing market? Now, that's kind of how it seems. Now, another thing that this survey revealed is like, gosh, it also seems like the age for doing almost anything in America is up. The median renter is age 42 did you have any idea there? 42 probably older than you thought. And the older people are, generally, the quieter they are, and the less they move. The most common application fee paid is $50 that's what the survey found. Hey, maybe that's one thing that hasn't been slapped with tariffs. It's an online world. The typical renter surveyed reported taking only one in person tour. Everything else is swiping, scrolling or going deep on Google Street View. Basically what tenants do is they check out everything online, and then once they've chosen the place that they want to rent, they often make that decision right there online, and then basically that one in person visit is just them showing up to confirm that there aren't any red flags at that place, that they mostly know that they won. And this is good for you if you're self managing and you're showing the places yourselves. I mean, there are just fewer tire kickers than there were back in the day. I mean, hey, talk to your parents. 25 years ago, rental ads were like four lines in a newspaper, no photos at all, so tenants then they had to show up in person to see what a rental place even looked like. Let's look at the percent of renter households in America by household income, less than $50,000 57% of renters were in that range, 50 to 100k 29% and 100k or more, 15% as far as how much security deposit you need to give, 75% of renters said their first month's rent was required to Secure the rental, and only 25% said that they also had to fork over last month's rent to secure it. In a really strong rental market, you can more often ask for that both first and last month's rent to get in. 40% reported getting their entire security deposit back at the end of the rental. Hmm, I guess the. Others pay for that mysterious carpet stain. Most pay additional fees on the rental, 58% and that's things like water, sewer, garbage, recycling or other utilities. And it even includes payment processing. There some landlords charge for that. And again, what I'm talking about here is single family rentals and apartments combined. All right, so more single family renters are going to pay for separate utilities on top of the rent. Of course, about half of American renters have renter's insurance. At 48% I suppose the others are living dangerously. A typical renter uses four websites or apps in their search and as I'm continuing on here with the results from this Zillow Rental survey of 36,000 renters, it also showed that the top three reasons that current renters say that they decide to stay long term are and this is big. I mean, this is about your retention rate. 72% stay long term because they say rental costs are a good deal, that's why they stay next most important is quiet neighbors. Yes, no drum kits or free range toddlers will help in apartments. One noisy neighbor can upset a lot of tenants, but a noisy neighbor that might not be a problem at all when people are dispersed in a single family rental and then the third most important thing in long term retention is 68% of renters stay in a unit because they can't afford to move elsewhere. Two thirds of tenants said their landlord or property manager notified them of a rent increase in the past two years, 37% of renters said they would be very or extremely likely to buy a home if mortgage rates fell. All right, that's about three in eight renters say that as far as the length of leases in America, 64% signed on for a one year lease, and 24% said their lease is longer than a year. So really, to summarize what you've learned here from that survey is that you need to know your audience, 42 year olds with pets and a strong preference for quiet neighbors. Keep your pricing competitive. Embrace tech. People want to apply and pay and do things online, and your tenants will stick around longer. You can either give a man a fish and feed him for a day, or teach a man to fish and feed him for a lifetime.    Here at GRE, we do both get riched occasion.com. Is where you learn through this very show and our videos over there, and our blog articles and more. The name gre marketplace.com is where you take action and see the markets and providers that make the best income properties nationwide. GRE marketplace is also where you get access to our totally free investment coaching strategy sessions with a real human being that has both an MBA and investing experience. And that's something we added three or four years ago that really helps you be profitable as an investor, get paid five ways so that you can have more income and wealth and perhaps even retire early. We help you find the right exact property addresses. That's what we help you do compared to 100 years ago, homes are half price today. This is fascinating. I'll get into that shortly. I'm Keith Weinhold. You're listening to get rich education.    The same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group NMLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your pre qual and even chat with President Caeli Ridge personally while it's on your mind, start at Ridge lendinggroup.com. That's Ridge lendinggroup.com. You know what's crazy?    Your bank is getting rich off of you. The average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I started putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns, and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading. It's pretty low risk because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. You can invest as little as 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back. No weird lockups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds, just say. They're doing nothing. Check it out. Text family to 66866, to learn about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund again. Text family to66866   Speaker 1  20:17   what's up? Everyone? This is HGTV. Tarek al Musa. Listen to get rich education with Keith Weinhold, and don't quit your Daydream.   Keith Weinhold  20:35   Welcome back to get rich Education. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, the headlines say homes are so expensive that you'd think millennials would be forced to live in IKEA showrooms. Now, a year or two ago, here on the show, I think I mentioned to you that at that time, it took eight kilos of gold to buy the average home, about 100 years ago, and at that time, only six. Well today, it took eight kilos of gold to buy an average home in 1920 but it's only four kilos now, in terms of gold, homes are half the price today, and I sent you that pretty shocking image showing this in our newsletter a month or two ago. So what in the monetary twilight zone has happened in the past 100 years? Well, a lot of things. The 1913 creation of the Federal Reserve inflated away your dollar's purchasing power over time. This was basically like giving your teen a credit card with no limit and hoping for the best, then removing the dollar's last link to gold redeemability in 1971 that freed the rains for unlimited dollar creation. And Robert Kiyosaki was here to discuss exactly that on the show with us on episode 358 go back and listen to episode 358 if you haven't heard it and you want to. Before long, dollars got so flimsy that dive bars started stapling them to the wall as decor, and it seems like the next stop for the dollar is kindling for your backyard fire pit. Now, there is, however, an affordability problem today that keeps renters staying as renters. But part of the calculus here is that homes only seem expensive because their values are usually compared to dollars. But that's faulty, because dollars are a moving measuring stick. This is like saying that an hour has 60 minutes in it this year and next year, it'll only have 55 minutes in it. That doesn't work. I mean, she should a few years, everyone would run a marathon in under an hour at that rate. Okay, so changing the measuring stick defeats the very purpose of a measuring stick. Here's what's even more amazing than that fact about the gold, despite that, homes only cost half as much today as they did in 1920 in terms of gold, you also get more home today. Today's homes have smaller lot sizes, smaller yards, but otherwise they have amenities that people couldn't have even dreamed of in 1920 I mean, this is really interesting. Let's compare a typical 1920 new home to a 2025 new home. We've gone from 1048 square feet up to 2411 so the size has more than doubled. Back then there was no Garage. Today you've got a heated garage. Back then you had one bathroom or even an outhouse in 1920 Oh, today you have two or three or even more indoor bathrooms in just the average new build home back in 1920 you had a wood burning stove that you had to keep loading, and you're like splitting and stacking firewood and storing that somewhere. Today, you have central heating. Just push a button. Back more than 100 years ago, you had no AC. Today, AC is completely standard. You had no insulation a lot of times in 1920 homes today you've got smart insulation. You used to have a very basic kitchen. Today you've got a center island and granite and quartz countertops. You had an ice box back in 1920 and a nice refrigerator or two. Today, back then, you had no dishwasher or garbage disposal. Today, you have both. Back in 1920 you had to use a washboard in a ringer to wash and dry your clothing. Can you imagine that today you have a washing machine? You had an outdoor clothesline back then today you have a dryer back in. 1920 you had these claw foot bathtubs, and often no shower. Today you have both bathtubs and showers, and several of them. Back then you had nothing where today you have a dedicated laundry room, and a lot of times a home office, and sometimes even a gym. I mean, so all those changes right there over the last 105 years. This really puts the exclamation point on the fact that homes are cheaper today. In terms of the value that you get, today's homes might be a third or a quarter of the price that they were a century ago. You can't point to mortgage rates either. They're still below their long run average of 7.7% per Freddie Mac the thing you've got to point to, the big problem here, the elephant in the room, is that salaries have not kept up with inflation, and that is the real crux of the problem in hurting homes affordability. Look, and this could be a real epiphany for you here that affordability fact is even more reason to move today's depreciating dollars into real assets and move that with emphasis and with urgency, dollar savers are just such massive losers. All right, so then, what is the opposite of saving dollars? Some people think it's spending dollars. No, the opposite of saving is not spending. It's borrowing dollars. That's how you go negative on that. The opposite of spending is not saving, it is borrowing. That is how you go negative and short the falling dollar. This really it's all just a fresh approach on what people need to consider doing. Borrow dollars, own income property, let tenants pay your debt, let inflation also shrink your debt like a cheap shirt that spends too much time in a clothing dryer, and just watch inflation pump up your asset price at the same time. Now you are just winning all over the place. You are racking up more wins than Novak Djokovic at the Australian Open. That's why I am resolute about saying what no one else out there says real estate done right is not an inflation hedge. A hedge is a defensive investing strategy where you break even. I mean, no one plays a game hoping for an outcome of a tie, spending money as an inflation hedge. That's why I refer to borrowing for income property as inflation profiting. That's the reason why. And see, other people's money pays down your debt, both the tenant and the inflation are whittling that away for you. Oh, and hey, for my fellow math weirdos, in 1920 a new home cost $6,300 and there are 35 ounces in a kilo of gold, and you can figure out the rest from there to see that homes cost half as much in gold. Now the bottom line here is that the real estate market is not broken. The dollar is and that dollar measuring stick is so miserably distorted and perverted that some people can't even see what's going on anymore. I've got another interesting way of helping you see this.    Let's look at something more recent than 1920 let's go back 30 years. Do you have any idea what the median us home price was then? Any guess 30 years ago, that's kind of charming. It was a modest $130,000 All right, with an 80% loan and zero principal pay down your mortgage balance would be a featherweight 104k today, that is a clear way of seeing how inflation debases your debt. And of course, the tenant would have paid it off for you by now as well. But I mean a loan balance of $104,000 without any principal pay down, sheesh, that's less than some people's American Express card limit. Really think about that by removing the principal pay down component, you can really see with transparency and lucidity the effect of inflation whittling down a loan balance to 104k and that is just 25% of today's median home price of $416,900 that is a stark example of inflation profiting, how your debt got relentlessly debased by the Fed. And of course, rental properties tend to be less expensive than this median number that I'm talking about. So the typical rental property is. In this scenario, you might just have a loan balance of 75k today, here, 30 years later, and the property would be worth, say, 300k inflation makes your loan balances feel like a featherweight over time. All right, now let's go somewhat further back in time again, 1950s Florida.    Last month, in our newsletter, I sent you those fascinating old newspaper clippings from a real estate sales ad from 1955 in the Miami area and a two bedroom, single family home, one bath, screened porch and a carport. Its price was $7,450 for the entire Miami area home. And the ad also showed that your monthly payment is $48 and then, okay, so that was a two bedroom, single family home this Miami area, three bed, one bath home with a screen porch, $7,900 so only an extra 450 bucks for an extra bedroom, that is the purchase price of the entire asset. And the monthly payments on this three bedroom are 50 bucks a month, a little more than the 48 bucks a month that it was for the two bedroom. And here's the thing, the monthly payment amount, as shown in this old newspaper advertisement, $48 and $50 that was principal, interest, taxes and insurance all together, a jaw dropping sub 8k for a Miami area home, not just Florida, but pricier Miami. I mean, can you imagine a Florida couple's home buying conversation in the mid 1950s there at Florida, honey, you're crazy if you think we're going to pay an extra $2 per month for a third bedroom. I mean, this is just astonishing. And yeah, my apologies for leaving you flabbergasted so many times in one episode. Gosh. Now to be sure, wages were lower back then, but back then, only one parent had to work. They still managed to buy homes, raise a family, and even pay for a milkman who actually delivered the milk. And now, you know, if we fast forward to the future, future generations, they're going to marvel at today's incredibly low median home price of 400 to 450k Yes, therefore you will be the one doing the flabbergasting, and you'll leave people From 2070 feeling abjectly flabbergasted when the median home price is $4 million then, I mean, it realistically could be, it could be more than that. It's the same way that today we're astonished at 1960s McDonald's menus where a burger was 15 cents. Yes, 15 cents is seriously how much McDonald's hamburger cost in the 60s. And of course, this is when restaurants also serve real meat and french fries cooked in tallow rather than seed oils, and shakes had real cream in them. That's all evidence of simultaneous skimpflation. But getting back to the monetary inflation, you know, as recently as 2011 we can even feel dazed and amazed about how the median home price, then was just $211,100 Yes, as recently as 2011 you're surely dazed and stupefied here, one thing I know, though, is that this did not leave you slack jawed, because Between you and I, we know there's only one slack job between us, and we know full well that that's not you. The bottom line, the bottom line here is that zooming out over time reveals a clear, uncomfortable truth. Savers get roasted, borrowers get rich. This is just a new way of looking at it.    And if you're a newer listener and you don't get our newsletter yet, it is free, full of value, and I write every word myself. There are more AI generated newsletters out there. That is not what this is. This is me to you, and to get the newsletter right now. Text. GRE to66866, 66866, we don't send you a bunch of texts that would be intrusive. It's an email newsletter. You can get it by texting GRE to 66866   Now, earlier this year, I talked with you about how home sales have crashed. When people read a media headline like that, home sales crash. You know, some people think that home prices are falling, but that's not. What that means is, you know, it means that the quantity of sales has fallen a lower transaction volume. With that in mind, to help you out in the future, when you're reading. For real estate and economic headlines, I jotted down a few fictitious headlines here, but yet they're the same type that you've seen before, and you'll see these again in the future, and they can be misleading. So let's straighten this out. Okay, here's the first fictitious yet realistic sounding headline, what people often think it means and what it really means. Developer uses tax loophole to deliver 200 unit apartment complex All right. Now, some people read that and they think that the developer is doing something nefarious or underhanded. No. Sometimes reporters use this word loopholes to describe legally created incentives to get much needed housing built. Reporters are often doing yeoman's work on behalf of NIMBYs. If this thing is producing more housing, then we need more loopholes, which are really incentives just like it. Here's another misleading headline. Now, almost all of the 50 states have a lower level of housing inventory than they did pre pandemic, but this headline says, Tennessee housing supply 4% more than pre pandemic levels. All right, some might see that headline and think, Oh, I guess that housing is a little oversupplied. Now, no, not necessarily, because most states had a scarce supply of inventory even before the pandemic hit back in 2020 the next headline is existing home sales fell off a cliff. All right, Did you note that this only includes existing homes, meaning resale homes, because, again, the headline is existing home sales fell off a cliff. So this doesn't include new builds. And there's nothing inherently falsified about some of these headlines. They just get misinterpreted. Softwood lumber prices hit all time record high. Okay, well, with persistent inflation, this might not be reason for alarm. Is it even an inflation adjusted high or not? Here's a headline, California leads the nation in out migration. All right, some people see this and assume that the California population is dropping. Well, maybe, maybe not. Again, the headline was, California leads the nation in out migration? Well, raw numbers aren't per capita. Cali is the largest state by population at almost 40 million. And also, if their in migration exceeds this out migration, well then they had positive net migration. And all of this doesn't even count births or deaths. You'd have to factor that in as well. The next headline is foreclosures Spike 50% year over year. Ooh, that sounds bad. And although this is a fake headline, just like the other ones that I'm telling you about, a phenomenon like this did recently occur, actually, but it's still at a really low level. It just rose from an extremely low level, two tenths of 1% up to three tenths of 1% that's a 50% gain. Here's a headline. You might see mortgage rates have dropped 2% this year. Maybe you'll see that in the future. Most people read something like this, and they assume that real estate values will resultantly soar. Well, maybe, maybe not. It sounds like homes are more affordable, and they would be, but the Fed might be cutting rates because the economy needs the help. It could mean we're in a recession. So if wages are down, even if mortgage rates are down, it might not actually be less affordable. The next fictitious headline is Philadelphia new build home prices surge 8% Oh, you're thinking that's got to be good, right? Well, I don't know what if new build Philly homes are constructed with 10% more square footage this year, but the price is only up 8% so they're actually selling at a lower cost per square foot. And this is also why existing home price change is more meaningful. The next fictitious headline is unemployment claims jump 30% in a week. All right? Well, this usually doesn't mean that there are mass layoffs and some economic Armageddon. If initial jobless claims rise from 200 up to 260k that's a 30% jump, but it's still low relative to recession levels, which are typically 400k plus and the last fictitious headline, Warren Buffett, b, u, F, F, E, T, invests $10 billion in apartment REITs. Oh, well, Buffett was spelled with only 1t Buffett should be spelled with a double T. Have you ever noticed that it is the most frequently misspelled name in financial media that's all for the headlines, so having the wherewithal about these sorts of things can help you better interpret what's happening in Real Estate's Future and the economy's future.    One of the most inexpensive national markets, I'll say, outside the Midwest, where you can own income property, where the numbers really make sense. An investor advantage place is in the state of Oklahoma. Some of these Oklahoma properties that we've begun dealing with here, they're pretty small. Like check out this single family rental I want to tell you about that's just 864 square feet. You know, more tenants desire this type of housing. Family sizes are smaller today, yet they want separation in the privacy of a single family home. And this one is brand new build, two beds, two baths, and the price is, get this $155,000 for new build. Yes, you heard that, right, and the projected rent is really strong. $1,250 I mean, this sort of cottage sized new build home is the type of product that can make the best rental, because if it were double the size, you might only get 50 or 60% more in rent. Now there's no garage on this new build 155k property, and you get all the finishes that you would expect from new construction. The second Oklahoma property to tell you about is this Tulsa duplex. This one really stands out. And Tulsa has over a million people in the metro. It was built just several months ago, $2,900 rent on a purchase price of about 360k and these ones, they've consistently appraised in the 375 to 380k range. So you could very well get some built in equity here with this duplex, where the numbers work pretty well as it is, each side of this new duplex has over 1300 square feet, three beds, two baths on each side, free management the first year, $3,000 cash to you post closing, all the nice finishes you'd expect with new build in this Tulsa duplex. So these two properties I've discussed here are really investor advantaged all new build. And that 155k single family rental was in Chickasaw, Oklahoma. And then the Tulsa duplex in the mid to high three hundreds. The next one is the last one. I'll mention. It's not as good of a deal, but it does look nicer because it's a brick faced new build single family rental for 320k in Lawton, Oklahoma. Lawton is more southwestern Oklahoma, with $2,400 rent, and it's 1800 square feet in this new build and just a little positive cash flow. The property tax rate is 1.1% property insurance is just 1250, a two car garage, all the types of finishes that you would expect with new build. So a property like this is if you're looking for a better quality tenant. Oklahoma City has had more happening than usual. You might have heard that the tallest building in the United States is planned to be built in Oklahoma City, yes, taller than anything in New York or Chicago. The Oklahoma City Thunder NBA team has been performing well. You know, those things are merely interesting and have almost nothing to do with the investor advantage. Rental properties, again, all three that I mentioned, there are new build. Not only are we in this persistent national housing shortage, but these entry level homes that make the best rentals, they're the ones that are in even shorter supply. That's a fact I probably don't mention to you often enough. The home ownership rate is down because of strained affordability, so you may very well have a long term tenant in these properties, and then you layer on the fact that they're new build, and it really looks promising for tenants wanting to stay for the long term. Check out the market and the provider. Learn more at either gre marketplace.com/oklahomcity or slash Tulsa. Yes, new build Oklahoma properties, if you're not sure about the exact address, that's going to provide you with the highest returns, our free investment coaching can help you with that as well borrow dollars with long term fixed interest rate debt that both tenants and inflation just relentlessly pay down for you while your expected price appreciation. Can leverage dollars at the same time. Start at gre marketplace.com/oklahoma, city or slash Tulsa until next week. I'm Keith Weinhold. Don't quit your Daydream.   Speaker 2  44:52   Nothing on this show should be considered specific personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional. Additional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  45:16   You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info, Oh, geez. Today's experience limits your free articles access, and it's got pay walls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers. It's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters. And I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter, you also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text gre 266, 866, while it's on your mind. Take a moment to do it right now. Text, gre 266, 866,   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com.

Author and financial expert, Chris Whelan, joins Keith as they explore the intricacies of the housing market's potential future. Chris drops an intriguing prediction of a possible 20% price correction. They dive deep into the complex world of real estate, examining the pandemic's significant impact on mortgages and economic trends. The conversation reveals the behind-the-scenes challenges of the housing market, from government interventions to the nuanced effects of interest rates and forbearance programs. They unpack the struggles in commercial real estate, particularly highlighting the unique challenges in markets like New York's rent-controlled properties. Chris's new book "Inflated: Money, Debt, and the American Dream" promises an insightful journey through America's economic transformation, tracing how the nation evolved from an agrarian society to a global economic powerhouse. Show Notes: GetRichEducation.com/556 For access to properties or free help with a GRE Investment Coach, start here: GREmarketplace.com GRE Free Investment Coaching: GREinvestmentcoach.com Get mortgage loans for investment property: RidgeLendingGroup.com or call 855-74-RIDGE  or e-mail: info@RidgeLendingGroup.com Invest with Freedom Family Investments.  You get paid first: Text FAMILY to 66866 Will you please leave a review for the show? I’d be grateful. Search “how to leave an Apple Podcasts review”  For advertising inquiries, visit: GetRichEducation.com/ad Best Financial Education: GetRichEducation.com Get our wealth-building newsletter free— text ‘GRE’ to 66866 Our YouTube Channel: www.youtube.com/c/GetRichEducation Follow us on Instagram: @getricheducation Complete episode transcript:   Automatically Transcribed With Otter.ai    Keith Weinhold  0:01   Welcome to GRE. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, what's the state of the housing market for the next five years, and could what's happening in the foreclosure market affect it? I see relative housing market price stability. My guest sees cracks. This could be somewhat of a debate today, then two great new cash flow and real estate markets in the same state that we're helping your portfolio with on get rich education, mid south home buyers, I mean, they're total pros, with over two decades as the nation's highest rated turnkey provider. Their empathetic property managers use your ROI as their North Star. So it's no wonder that smart investors just keep lining up to get their completely renovated income properties like it's the newest iPhone. They're headquartered in Memphis and have globally attractive cash flows and A plus rating with the Better Business Bureau and now over 5000 houses renovated. There's zero markup on maintenance. Let that sink in, and they average a 98.9% occupancy rate, while their average renter stays more than three and a half years. Every home they offer has brand new components, a bumper to bumper, one year warranty, new 30 year roofs. And wait for it, a high quality renter, remember that part and in an astounding price range, 100 to 180k I've personally toured their office and their properties in person in Memphis, get to know Mid South. Enjoy cash flow from day one. Start yourself right now at mid southhomebuyers.com that's mid south homebuyers.com.   Corey Coates  1:56   You're listening to the show that has created more financial freedom than nearly any show in the world. This is get rich education.   Keith Weinhold  2:12   Welcome to GRE from Edison, New Jersey to Edinburgh, Scotland, where I am today, and across 188 nations worldwide, I'm Keith Weinhold, and you are back for another wealth building week on get rich education. Today's guest came to me recommended. It came from a guest that we've had on the show here before, Jim Rickards and his daughter Ally Rickards. His name is Christopher Whelan. He has a distinguished background. Comes from a prominent family, and he's the author of a new book that just published a few weeks ago. His father, Richard Whelan, was the biographer of Joe Kennedy, and was advisor to presidents and Fed chairman and today's guest, his son there, Chris. He has done a lot of work in DC. He lives just north of New York City today. So I guess coming recommended from Jim Rickards and learning a few things about today's guest helped me want to host him on the show. So though I'm just meeting him for the first time right here on the show, as it turns out, I learned that he has mentioned on other channels that real estate prices could correct down 20% and fall back to 2020 levels. I absolutely don't see how that's possible in any way. I'm going to bring that up with him, so we'll see. This could turn into somewhat of a debate. Like I said last week, I believe that significantly falling housing prices. That's about as likely as grocery store prices falling back to 2020 levels. Yes, I am in Edinburgh, Scotland today. It's my first time here. My mom, dad and also my brother's entire family came over from the US to meet up. It's been great. We're taking in all the best sites, Edinburgh Castle, other castles, the Scottish Highlands, Loch Ness, though I don't believe in any Loch Ness monster at all. I mean, come on, what a hoax. And we're seeing some other sites, though it didn't really interest the others, which I could understand. I visited the home where Adam Smith once resided, and I might put my video about that on our get rich education YouTube channel, so you could check that out over there. Of course, Adam Smith is considered the father of modern day economics for his work on supply versus demand and the GDP concept, the invisible hand, concept, much of that work conveyed in his magnum opus, The Wealth of Nations, published in 1776 as for the present day, let's meet this week's guest, including me, meeting him for the first time.     I'd like to welcome in a first time guest. He's the author of a widely acclaimed new book. It's named inflated money, debt and the American dream. It just released, and the book couldn't be more timely with the multitude of challenges related to inflation, many involving the housing market in his earlier books, he's been known, frankly, for just telling his readers the truth. He's worked at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in politics and as an investment banker for more than 30 years. Today, he runs Whalen Global Advisors. You've seen him on CNBC in the Wall Street Journal, and now you're hearing him on GRE Welcome to the show. Chris Whalen.   Chris Whalen  5:43   Thank you, Keith, appreciate your invitation.    Keith Weinhold  5:45   Whalen is spelled W, H, A, l, e, n, if you're listening in the audio only, Hey, Chris, we're in a really interesting time in the economic cycle. We all know the Fed has a dual mandate, high employment and stable prices. What's interesting to me is, late last year, they cut rates by a full 1% and this is despite inflation being above target. Makes me wonder if they care more about high employment and they're rather willing to let inflation float higher. What are your thoughts?    Chris Whalen  6:18   I think historically, that's been the case. You know, the dual mandate Humphrey Hawkins, that drives the Fed's actions today was a largely socialist compromise between the Republicans and the Democrats. The Democrats wanted to guarantee everybody a job after World War Two, the legislation was really about soldiers and people who had served their country in many, you know, places around the world, for a long time, and then you would have the depression. So you had a whole generation or more of people that were looking for help when they came home. And that's what this was. But today, you know, there's another mandate, which is called keeping the treasury bond market open. We saw it was during COVID in 2020 President Trump got up, declared that people didn't have to pay their rent or their mortgages, and then didn't do anything. There was no follow up. At the time, folks in mortgage industry kind of looked at each other funny for about 60 days and said, What's going to happen? Because they have to advance principal, interest, taxes and insurance to protect the house. The first rule in mortgage finances protect the asset. But it all worked because the Fed dropped interest rates to zero and we had a boom. We refinanced two thirds of every mortgage in the United States, and that cash flow allowed the finance forbearance for millions of Americans. Now the unfortunate part, of course, was home prices went up double digits for six years. So why we had no affordability today? So, you know, it helped, but it certainly didn't help in some ways,   Keith Weinhold  7:48   mortgage loan forbearance back in the COVID era about five years ago, where you could basically just skip your mortgage payment and then they increase the overall duration of your loan period.   Chris Whalen  8:00   That's right. So you know, your government market, your conforming market, were falling. They also had various schemes, state forbearance for non agency loans. Nobody thought at all about the multifamily sector and the developers that didn't get paid for two years. And we're feeling the impact of that. Of course, today, that's probably the biggest pain point in US economy today is commercial real estate and multi family real estate, and neither one of them involves a consumer. So it gets no attention at all. You read about it in the specialty press, but that's about it.    Keith Weinhold  8:34   And by talking about multi family not affecting the consumer, you're just talking about who's on the owner side there?   Chris Whalen  8:40   precisely if all of the consumers have problems, you'd hear about it, and you do, especially in some of the blue states. I live in New York, so we have some of the more aggressive rent stabilization, rent control laws in the country. And they go back to World War Two. They go back almost a century,   Keith Weinhold  8:58   right? It's those people in the one to four unit space in residential real estate investing that really got the help there.    Chris Whalen  9:06   Well, at least, you know, the world didn't end. Imagine if all of those people had gone to foreclosure. The industry wouldn't have done that. Of course, they would have thrown up their hands and cried for help. But the point is, they made it work. But the cost of making it work that zero interest rate regime that the Fed put in place is still being felt today. If you look at banks which typically have prime large mortgages on their books, the loss given default is zero. Home prices are so high that if somebody actually goes to foreclosure, they sell the house, they pay off the loan easily, and there's usually a large residual left, which would go to the homeowner. So today, you know, if somebody gets in trouble, we do a short sale, we do a deed in lieu, and off they go. And that's why the stats don't show you the pain that many American families are feeling today, because about 60% of all payoffs of one to four family mortgages are people who. Are exiting the market, they're not going to buy another house. So what that means is that the cost of home ownership, or whatever other factors are involved, has made them make the decision not to go to another home mortgage.    Keith Weinhold  10:13   Yes, we have this historically low affordability that's beginning to be reflected in the home ownership rate. It's trended down from about 66 to 65% recently, we continue to be in this environment here, Chris in the one to four unit space, where those existing homeowners are in really good shape. They have record high equity levels of over 300k A lot of them have their home paid off. About 40% of American homeowners own their home free and clear, and of the remainder, those borrowers, 82% still have a mortgage rate of under 5% and of course, that principal and interest payment stays fixed. So even if there's economic hardship, it's pretty easy for people to make their payments and stay in their homes.   Chris Whalen  11:02   Well, it certainly is for most of the marketplace. If you look at the bottom 20% the FHA market, also the VA market, there's a little more stress there. There's still an awful lot of people who are in various types of forbearance in that market. That's going to end in October. So the Trump administration is pushing most of the rules back to pre COVID approaches for delinquency, for example, what we call the waterfall. And what that basically means is that if an FHA borrower gets in trouble, they'll have one shot at a modification where they lower the loan cost and stick part of the loan out the back to be paid off when the house is sold. If that doesn't take, if they don't re perform, then they're going to go to a foreclosure. We just ended another program for veterans. You know, they had three weeks notice, so now you're going to see a lot of veterans going to foreclosure. Unfortunately.   Keith Weinhold  11:56   yes, this administration is basically making sure that people are responsible or resume their payments. We've seen that student loan repayments needing to resume as well. Most foreclosure rate types are still pretty low, but yes, FHA foreclosure rates are higher than those for conventional loans.    Chris Whalen  12:15   Yeah, the interesting thing is, the veterans delinquency rate is half of the FHA rate, and even though people in uniform don't make a lot of money, they pay their bills. Yeah, it's quite striking.   Keith Weinhold  12:25   Why don't you talk to us more about areas where you see distress in the housing market before we talk about more inflation? Chris, the   Chris Whalen  12:34   key areas of housing stress at the moment are commercial real estate that has become underutilized. COVID drove a lot of this, but also the fact that industries could change their work practices. It could have people work from home. Look at housing. We sent everybody home in 2020 while we increased headcount by a third to address a surge in lending volume. It was insane. I gotta tell you, we were hiring people that we didn't see for months that changed the business model assumptions for a lot of industries. A lot of them moved out of blue states and went down to Florida and Texas. In the mortgage industry particularly, and so we have a lot of older real estate particularly, that is suffering. It has dropped in terms of appraised values. You also have higher interest rates and higher cap rates, that is to say the assumption of returns on the part of investors. So that hurdle has made a lot of these properties impaired, essentially. And then the other subclass is older multifamily properties. Think about those beautiful old apartments in the middle block up on the east side or the west side of Manhattan. They're not big enough to be viable, and so they have become this kind of subprime asset class, much in the way if you recall the signature bank failure, they typically bank these sorts of real estate properties, and now there's nobody that wants them. I think you're going to see some very specific pain coming out of HUD, and also Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac because they bank some of these smaller properties that really aren't bankable by commercial banks. That's what it comes down to. If you're going to read about this and hear about it a lot in the commercial market over next several years. And again, you know, the losses on bank owned multifamily properties today are averaging 100% so that means that there are a lot that have more expenses than simply losing the full loan amount. And you know, if you want to have a bank loan, they're not taking these properties. They don't want them, right? So the bank, REO rate, if you look at the data from the FDIC, is zero. And what that tells you is that they can't sell the properties they don't want them, because if they take ownership, the city's not going to let them abandon the property. They'll have to keep it and maintain it. It's a tough situation. This is. Has evolved over the last 20 years or so, because consumer incomes have been kind of stagnant in real terms. But the cost of operating a property in New York City is not going down. It's going up quite a lot, and the legislation we've seen from Albany doesn't allow owners to recapture expenses, doesn't allow them to renovate apartments. So if I have a rent stabilized apartment, I'll use a real example, in a beautiful building on Central Park South right, to renovate a unit that's been occupied for 20 years, new kitchen, new bathroom, sir, everything services. That's $150,000 so if I'm the owner and I can't recapture that cost. What do I do? I lock the door, I gut the apartment, and I lock the door, and I hope that the laws will change in the future, because I can't rent it, my insurance underwriter will not allow me to rent out an apartment that's not brought up to code. That's New York law, but the folks in Albany don't care about that. We have some really unreasonable people in positions of authority, unfortunately, in some of these states, and you talk to them about these issues, and they don't care. They just pander to consumers, regardless of whether or not it makes sense or not. And that's just the way it is.   Keith Weinhold  16:15   Those evil landlords, quote, unquote, most right evil. They're just mom and pop investors that are trying to beat inflation with real assets, and they have real expenses. Rent Stabilization basically just being a genteel term for rent control, which gives no one an incentive to improve a property for sure   Chris Whalen  16:35   and it reduces the availability of housing ultimately, because nobody builds. You see that in New York right now the home market is pretty tight, up to the conforming limit for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac so you figure a million, 1,000,002 here in New York. But above that, it's quieted down quite a lot. There's compression in some of the higher end homes. And you know, if you go down south, you see a different problem, which is over building. They didn't want to build here, so they went down to the Carolinas and Texas and Florida. There's a huge amount of both multi family condo type developments and single family homes too. But above that average price level way above half a million dollars.   Keith Weinhold  17:15   Sure, it's made this dynamic where things have been flip flopped in the Northeast and Midwest, where the populations aren't growing very fast, those markets have been appreciating more than those in the high growth southeast, all coming back to supply. They're not bringing on enough new supply in the Northeast and Midwest, Chris has just laid out a few reasons for that, due to this high regulation. And then in the southeast, a high growth area, even though that's where people are moving, we're not getting much appreciation there, because you're able to build and that supply is able to keep up with demand. Well, Chris and I are going to talk more about the housing market and about inflation. When we come back, you're listening to get rich education. Our guest is Chris Whelan, the author of a great new book. I'm your host. Keith Weinhold.   the same place where I get my own mortgage loans is where you can get yours. Ridge lending group and MLS, 42056, they provided our listeners with more loans than anyone because they specialize in income properties. They help you build a long term plan for growing your real estate empire with leverage. Start your pre qual and even chat with President Caeli Ridge personally. While it's on your mind, start at Ridge lendinggroup.com. That's Ridge lendinggroup.com.    You know what's crazy? Your bank is getting rich off of you. The average savings account pays less than 1% it's like laughable. Meanwhile, if your money isn't making at least 4% you're losing to inflation. That's why I started putting my own money into the FFI liquidity fund. It's super simple. Your cash can pull in up to 8% returns and it compounds. It's not some high risk gamble like digital or AI stock trading. It's pretty low risk because they've got a 10 plus year track record of paying investors on time in full every time. I mean, I wouldn't be talking about it if I wasn't invested myself. You can invest as little as 25k and you keep earning until you decide you want your money back. No weird lockups or anything like that. So if you're like me and tired of your liquid funds just sitting there doing nothing, check it out. Text family to 66866, to learn about freedom. Family investments, liquidity fund again. Text family to 66866.   Kathy Fettke  19:45   this is the real wealth network's Kathy Fettke, and you are listening to the always valuable get rich education with Keith Weinhold.    Keith Weinhold  20:00   You welcome back to get rich education. We're talking with the author of a great new book, Chris Whelan, it's called inflated money, debt and the American dream. Chris, I see the residential housing market and their price points as being resilient. I'm kind of looking around and seeing if you have any places where you think that there are any cracks in that? I've heard you talk elsewhere about a housing price correction. Were you talking in the one to four unit space? And how do you think that could happen?   Chris Whalen  20:31   I didn't come up with that idea. I did a biography of my good friend Stan middleman, who's the founder of freedom mortgage. It's a real rags to riches story of a successful entrepreneur, a great guy, by the way, is a beloved man in the mortgage industry. And so what he believes is that cycles are about a decade in terms of human behavior. And he says misery on the eights, which is kind of a cute way of saying it. And what Stan is basically saying is you eventually see so much price appreciation that affordability goes to zero. You run out of buyers, is another way to put it. And then once the Fed gooses it, he thinks we see an interest rate decline this year next year, perhaps you get rates to run a little bit. You get volumes to jump the way they did last summer. You remember, in the third quarter, we had great volumes in the mortgage industry, carried everybody through to the end of the year, and then after that, he says, we get a price correction, maybe back down to 2020 21 levels. So we're talking about a 20% price correction, and we're talking about the loans that have been made in the last few years being underwater. That's something we haven't talked about in a long time. We haven't talked about that since 2008 so I think that Americans inevitably have to see some kind of a correction. What the Fed did was wrong, what they did was excessive. I write about that in the end of my book, but unfortunately, the result is home prices that have galloped along, and eventually you got to reset it. Part of its supply coming online. Part of it is simply, like, I say, you run out of buyers, and when it's simply that purchase buyer who is either all cash or happens to have the deposit, and that's all you have. And there's no flexibility for people that want to get into the market. You know, that's tough. I could recall Paul Volcker years ago, we were talking about that in the book too. He ratcheted down home prices. He raised interest rates so much that home prices went down, and a lot of builders went out of business who had had a lot of snls go out of business, and, you know, the previous decade. So that was a tough time. We didn't even start to do that this time around, because they were afraid to the Fed is worried about keeping the Treasury market open, so they are afraid of deflation, which unfortunately means you don't get those opportunities to get into the market. I remember my parents, when I was very young, they would buy busted homes in Washington, DC. It was a great way to make a lot of money, and in five years, the House would double. That's the kind of market Washington was   Keith Weinhold  23:05   in my opinion, I don't see how there could be any substantial residential home price correction. Historically that happens when there's a wide swath of homeowners that get into financial trouble, like I was talking about earlier, the homeowner is in great financial shape today. In fact, since World War Two, we've only seen home prices drop substantially during one period. That was that period around 2008 and that's when we had conditions that are opposite of what they are today. We had loans underwritten with liar loans. We had an over supply of homes, like I was saying earlier, inflation can't touch one's principal and interest payment. We're still under supplied with homes. Most experts don't think we'll get that into balance for at least five years. I really don't see how home prices could fall substantially. I also don't see how they could rise substantially, like, say, 10% due to that low affordability, but I expect continued stability in prices?    Chris Whalen  24:02   Well, we'll see. I'm not as sanguine about that, because a lot of people feel house rich on paper, but when the bottom of the stack is really hurting as it is now, FHA delinquency rates really are in probably the mid teens. You don't see that yet in the middle with the 727, 40 FICO type borrowers. But I think over time you could, and if, again, it depends on the economy and some other factors, but I'll tell you right now, you're already seeing a correction in the hyad the bottom half, no. And there's a supply problem here, which I agree with you on. It's going to keep those home price is pretty firm. And even where I am in New York, for God's sake, Keith, there's no construction here. So we just had a house across the street from me go from million one. I live in Sleepy, hollow New York, and you know, this is typically around the conforming limit for prices for most of these homes, and it went for 150 $1,000 over the ask, it was crazy. Went in two weeks now, during COVID, we saw this sort of behavior, and we thought, Well, okay, you had zero interest rates. I got a 3% mortgage, by the way, awesome. But here we have a situation when markets cooled down a lot, and yet the lack of availability is really the driver. So in that sense, I agree with you, but I do think the high end could correct rather substantially.   Keith Weinhold  25:24    And of course, in multi family apartments, that's different. That's where values in a lot of markets have been depressed by more than 30% they were subject to those interest rates being jacked up, and we're still going to see balloon loans mature and people default on those in apartments. The pain is not over with air, but at some point that's going to bottom out, and that'll be a buyer opportunity in apartments.   Chris Whalen  25:47    Well, the thing is, new stuff is going fine. It's what happens is when the new gets built, the older assets down the road get discounted. That's really what's going on. People love new as you know, these kids love a new house, as opposed to an older house.   Keith Weinhold  26:02   Yes, that'll help reset the prices in the new market when you can compare those to what existing values are. Well, Chris, talk to us more about your new book and what the overall thesis of the book is in these critical times.    Chris Whalen  26:16   Inflated is meant to help people understand how our country went from agrarian, sleepy, isolationist America in the 1900s to being the dominant economy in the world and the provider of global money. We talk about how we got here. We talk about Abraham Lincoln and Franklin Roosevelt and many other characters. Obviously, we had to talk about Andrew Jackson, who is now embodied in our president, Donald Trump. We try and frame how this is all going to evolve in the future. And my thesis is basically the global currency role is something you get during or after a war. We took the baton from Great Britain after the First World War, and then by the end of World War Two, everybody in the world was broke, except for us. It was last man standing. And so rebuilt the world. We let everybody take advantage of us, and now President, who's saying, Nope, we got to change this. I think if it wasn't Trump, it would be somebody else. To be honest with you, Americans are tired of high inflation. They're tired of some of the other costs that come along with being the global reserve currency, so we try and frame all of this in an understandable way. And I particularly talk about housing during COVID and how that all really, I think, changed things for many Americans. Home ownership has been one of the basic ways we create wealth in this country, and the fact that we didn't have an opportunity for people to get in cheap with a fixer upper or a house that was foreclosed. You know, I think it's unfortunate, but the system just can't tolerate it. We've gone in 2008 and then in 2020 through two very significant crises when the government bond market stopped working. So we talk about that as well.   Keith Weinhold  28:03   I don't predict interest rates. I think it is really difficult to do you mentioned earlier about the prospect for lower interest rates coming. Everyone wants to know about coming. What's your outlook for the future of interest rates and inflation for just say the next five years? Chris,    Chris Whalen  28:19   I think interest rates will drop. That is to say what the Fed controls, which is short term interest rates. In the next year or so, we'll have a little bit of a boom as a result. But I think the concern about the federal deficit and US debt, the volatility caused by President Trump's trade strategy, and just general I think a sense of uncertainty among investors is going to keep long term interest rates higher than we saw during COVID And really the whole period since 2008 the Fed bought a lot of duration and took it out of the market, so they kept rates low. They're not going to do that as much in the future. I don't think they'll buy mortgage securities again, they are very chastened by that experience. So if they don't buy mortgage backed securities, and if the banks don't become more aggressive buyers, and I don't think they will, then you know, the marginal demand that would drive mortgage rates down is just not going to be there. Banks have been holding fewer and fewer mortgages and mortgage backed securities on their books for 35 years. If you look at the growth in the industry, the dollar amount of one to four family mortgages hasn't changed very much. So when you look at it that way, it's like, you know what's wrong? Two things. They want to only make mortgages to affluent households. They want to avoid headline risk and litigation and fines and all of that. And I think also, too some of the Basel capital rules for banks discourage them from holding mortgages and mortgage servicing rights, which is an area I work in quite a lot.   Keith Weinhold  29:55   It seems to me, like increasingly, the powers. It be the United States government just won't let the homeowner fail. They want to do so much to promote home ownership over the long term, we see relative ease with getting a mortgage. We've seen lower down payment requirements during other times, including COVID. We see the government jump in with things like mortgage loan forbearance and an eviction moratorium for renters. They just don't want to let people lose their homes. It just seems like there's more propensity to give homeowners a greater safety net than ever. Well,   Chris Whalen  30:29   we've turned it into an entitlement. Yeah, and Trump is changing that at the federal level. The states, the blue states, are going to continue to play that game at the state level, and they can even have state moratoria. But what's going to happen, and I think sooner rather than later, is you may see the federal agencies start to tier the states in terms of servicing fees, simply to reflect the cost. It takes over 1400 days to do a foreclosure in New York. Gosh, that is a big problem. You can lose the lien in New York now, it takes so long. So I think that, you know, from an investor perspective, from a developer perspective, it's not an attractive venue. That's just the reality. Then you even California is as progressive and as activists as it is, you can still get a foreclosure done very quickly using the trustees. It's just a totally different situation. If there are complications, you can get into a judicial foreclosure, which will take longer. But still, California works. New York is deliberately dysfunctional. We have people in the state legislature who are in foreclosure themselves, and they keep passing these laws. So, you know, I think at the federal level, you're going to see it roll back to pre COVID, but I will say that forbearance, both with respect to the agency and conventional market and private loans, is kind of the rule. Now we work with the borrower much more than we would in the past. It's it is really night and day.   Keith Weinhold  32:00   Chris, your new book has gotten a lot of acclaim. Let us know anything else that we should know about this book, and then if we can get it in all the usual places   Chris Whalen  32:10   you can buy it at Barnes and Noble Amazon. I have a page on my website, RC, waylon.com, with all the relevant links. But the online is the best way to get it. Most of the sales are on Kindle anyway, but well over 90% are online, so we don't have to worry about physical books. I think we'll be doing some book signings in the New York area. So we'll definitely let you know about that.   Keith Weinhold  32:33   One last thought is that the rate of inflation means more to a real estate investor than it does to a layperson, maybe five times as much or more, because when we borrow for an income property, our asset floats up with inflation. That part's really just a hedge on inflation. Our debt gets debased by inflation, which is really a mechanism for profiting from inflation over time. And then, thirdly, our cash flow tends to go up even faster than the rate of inflation, since our principal and interest stays fixed, so real estate investors can often be the beneficiary of inflation. It's sort of strange to go root for a force like inflation that can impoverish so many people. But what are your thoughts with respect to real estate investors and inflation?   Chris Whalen  33:19   Well, you know, it's funny when Jerome Powell at the Fed says that they have a 2% inflation target, my response is, well, we better have at least 2% inflation if we're going to make commercial real estate work. Commercial real estate went up for 75 years after World War Two. I can remember when I was in the rating business at Crowell bond ratings going to see some of the banks here in New York, their multifamily books had only seen the equity underneath the asset go up and up and up. In other words, the land ended up being 90% of the value, you know, 1520, years after the purchase and the improvements were almost worthless simply because the land appreciated so much. Now that has changed since COVID. A lot of commercial real estate, particularly has gotten under a bit of a cloud. You've seen falling prices. However, in parts of the country that are growing where you have a positive political environment, positive economic environment, you're still seeing fantastic growth in both commercial and multifamily markets. So I think being very careful and patient in doing your homework in terms of picking venues is more important now than ever before. You know, I'll give you an example. Down in Florida, we're building new malls every day. The mall down the road that's 15 years old. There's nothing wrong with it, but it's 15 years old. And so the price discounts that you're seeing for existing assets are rather striking. Same thing down in the Carolinas, down in, you know, Atlanta, and going down to the Texas growth spectacle, I'm always astounded by what's going on in Texas. They built so much in that whole area around South Lake, out by the airport. It, they're going to basically subsume used it. So, you know, in those markets, you have great opportunities, but you also have over building. And so we're going to see some cycles where they're going to be deals out there for projects that maybe were a little too ambitious have to get restructured, and astute investors can come in and do very well on that   Keith Weinhold  35:20   like we often say around here, in real estate investing, the market is typically even more important than the property itself. The name of Chris's new book, again, is inflated money, debt and the American dream. It has an awful lot of intersections with real estate investors and how they can play inflation. Uh, Chris has been a terrific conversation about the real estate market and larger market forces. It's been great having you here on the show.   Chris Whalen  35:47   Thank you, Keith. Let's do it again.   Keith Weinhold  35:49   Yeah, some good insights from Chris, a smart guy. And gosh, what a really sad state for rent stabilized apartments in New York City, where landlords of some of those properties, they would have to spend sometimes hundreds of 1000s of dollars in order to bring them up to code, but then they couldn't charge enough rent to offset those expenses due to government intervention and price fixing, so landlords just lock up the property vacant. And this sort of harkens back to when we were talking about some of this last year, when we had documentary film maker jen siderova on the show with her film called shopification, and it was about how rent control slowly makes neighborhoods fall into disrepair. All right, Chris and I had some difference of opinion there on the prospects for a home price correction. I think I made most of my points. He did, though, talk about running out of home buyers. If I have him back, maybe I'll pick up right there. More buyers are baked into the demographics, like I think I shared with you one time the US had its highest ever birth rate years between 1990 and 2010 more than 4 million births per year for a lot of those years. Just to review this with you, you might remember that 2007 was the US is peak birth year. Add 38 years to that for the average first time homebuyer age, and that housing demand won't even peak until 2045 and it will continue to stay high for a few years after that. So that's where the demand is just going to keep coming from, just piling on. And when I say that loan conditions have eased for American homeowners, like I did there during the interview, of course, what I'm talking about is the long term. I mean, lending conditions got more rigid after 2008 and with the adoption of Dodd Frank. What I'm talking about is, before the Great Depression, it was most common to have to make 50% to 60% down payments on property, and you had to repay the entire note in five to 10 years. I mean, can you imagine how that would hurt affordability today and then later, by 1950, 15, year loans were the common one. I mean, even that would impair affordability today. Today, 30 year loans are the common one, and you can put as little as 3% down on a primary residence. A lot of people don't know that either. It does not take 20% on a primary residence. So that's what I mean about the relative ease of credit flow today. Now, Chris has knowledge about other parts of the real estate market that I don't for his work inside DC and in other places like the foreclosure market. We talked about some of that right after the interview. For example, He was letting acronyms like NPL roll off his tongue, and I had to ask him what that meant. That's a non performing loan. Check out Chris's new book. Again, it's called inflated money debt in the American dream. And again, his website is RCwhalen.com and Chris also has a great sense of history, which we didn't get into, longtime real estate guys radio show co host Russell gray and I will discuss monetary history here on the show soon. Like I said, I'm coming to you from Edinburgh, Scotland this week, even if you don't see great sites, you know, it's interesting just walking the historic streets here, if you're an American that's visited here before, you surely know what I mean. And I told you that I'd let you know, the current real estate transaction I'm involved in is paying $650 a night for the hotel here in Edinburgh. Yes, that's a lot. I've actually paid less for fancier places in Dubai, but this hotel here is on the Royal Mile. Of course, I could have found less expensive accommodations elsewhere.    Speaking of less expensive, here's an announcement. And we have new investment property providers at GRE marketplace, two of them, the markets are both in Oklahoma, and they are Oklahoma City and Tulsa, Oklahoma as a state, is known for landlord friendly eviction processes and legal systems, kind of the opposite of New York. So this makes your property management more predictable. Now, when we look at this city, OKC has the lowest priced new single family rentals. I can think of it under 160k Yes, that really puts the exclamation point on inexpensive and favorable rent to price ratios often exceeding 1% which is obviously attractive for cash flow, meaning a 150k single family rental could yield over $1,500 in rent. There's high rental demand in certain sub markets. We have scouted out those exact places for you in the OKC metro, like Edmond Moore spelled M, O, O, R, E, and Midwest City, all supporting consistent rent income, though it was once really oil dependent, OKC has diversified economically, reducing your risk tied to commodity cycles and ok sees local economy that's supported by industries including aerospace, energy, health care and logistics. Then there's Tulsa. Tulsa has the highest cash flowing new build duplexes, perhaps anywhere in the US that I know about. On the single family rental side, a lot of Tulsa investors can find properties under 150k with monthly rents again exceeding 1% of the purchase price, clearly ideal. So yes, both Oklahoma City and Tulsa are now on GRE marketplace. You can either visit the pages and see them there, or one of our qualified, experienced GRE investment coaches. Meet with them. They can help guide you to the very best deals and show you the specific property addresses available right at this time for whatever best meets your needs. If you're looking to either start or expand to another market and you seek cash flow, you really need to consider Oklahoma. Yes, it is free to have a strategy session with an investment coach, whether that's for Oklahoma or other investor advantage regions. I often like to leave you with something actionable. You can start at GREinvestment coach.com start book a meeting for a free strategy session remotely. That's at GREinvestment coach.com, until next week, I'm your host. Keith Weinhold, don't quit your Daydream.   Dolf Deroos  42:51   Nothing on this show should be considered specific, personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate, financial or business professional for individualized advice. Advice, opinions of guests are their own. Information is not guaranteed. All investment strategies have the potential for profit or loss. The host is operating on behalf of get rich Education LLC exclusively.   Keith Weinhold  43:14   You know, whenever you want the best written real estate and finance info, oh, geez, today's experience limits your free articles access and it's got pay walls and pop ups and push notifications and cookies disclaimers. It's not so great. So then it's vital to place nice, clean, free content into your hands that adds no hype value to your life. That's why this is the golden age of quality newsletters, and I write every word of ours myself. It's got a dash of humor, and it's to the point because even the word abbreviation is too long, my letter usually takes less than three minutes to read, and when you start the letter, you'll also get my one hour fast real estate video. Course, it's all completely free. It's called the Don't quit your Daydream letter. It wires your mind for wealth, and it couldn't be easier for you to get it right now. Just text gre to 66866. While it's on your mind, take a moment to do it right now. Text, gre to 66866.   The preceding program was brought to you by your home for wealth, building, getricheducation.com.