HousingWire Daily How much lower can mortgage rates go?
20 snips
Sep 4, 2025 
Logan Mohtashami, a lead analyst and housing market data expert, joins to discuss the recent job data and its surprising impact on mortgage rates. They explore how the current labor market dynamics, where unemployed workers outnumber job openings, might shape the Federal Reserve's economic strategies. Mohtashami delves into the nuances of wage growth versus inflation and the implications for housing finance. With mortgage rates inching lower, he shares insights on what the future holds amidst these evolving economic indicators.
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Job Openings Reverted To Pre‑COVID Levels
- The job openings report fell to 7.2 million, returning to pre-COVID levels and now showing more unemployed than openings.
- Logan Mohtashami says this reversal is a critical signal the Fed watches and it weakens the labor market narrative.
Why Rates Stalled Near Current Lows
- Mortgage rates hit a 2025 low at about 6.49% driven by softer labor data and mortgage spreads improving.
- Mohtashami notes the 10-year yield struggles to close below 4.18%, limiting further rate declines.
Job Openings' Pandemic Spike Has Receded
- Job openings peaked during the COVID recovery and climbed as high as 12 million before falling back to roughly 7.2 million.
- Mohtashami frames this as a return to long‑run norms after the unique pandemic labor dynamics.