When the Facts Change cover image

When the Facts Change

Why is the Reserve Bank continuing to hold the OCR?

Jun 13, 2024
Paul Conway, Chief Economist at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, offers keen insights on monetary policy and inflation. He discusses why interest rates remain high and the challenges tied to persistent inflation. Conway highlights the complicated relationship between inflation control and economic stability, examining recent trends in the housing market and the implications of fiscal policies. He also warns against oversimplifying the impacts of interest rates, using Turkey as a notable example of what can go wrong.
35:03

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Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • The Reserve Bank's hawkish stance on high interest rates is driven by persistent domestic inflation, particularly in areas like housing and construction costs.
  • Despite easing imported inflation, the ongoing challenges in the local housing market complicate the Reserve Bank's efforts to stabilize overall inflation.

Deep dives

The Persistent Challenge of Inflation

Inflation has remained a significant concern in the economy, especially in the context of housing and consumer prices. Many borrowers are feeling the pressure as high interest rates persist, resulting in a stagnant housing market and individuals dipping into savings for daily necessities. The Reserve Bank has surprised many by maintaining its hawkish stance on monetary policy, extending high interest rates even amid a technical recession. This enduring inflation is linked to domestic factors such as government fees, housing prices, and insurance costs, which are not easily influenced by changes in interest rates.

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