Why is the Reserve Bank continuing to hold the OCR?
Jun 13, 2024
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Paul Conway, Chief Economist at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, offers keen insights on monetary policy and inflation. He discusses why interest rates remain high and the challenges tied to persistent inflation. Conway highlights the complicated relationship between inflation control and economic stability, examining recent trends in the housing market and the implications of fiscal policies. He also warns against oversimplifying the impacts of interest rates, using Turkey as a notable example of what can go wrong.
The Reserve Bank's hawkish stance on high interest rates is driven by persistent domestic inflation, particularly in areas like housing and construction costs.
Despite easing imported inflation, the ongoing challenges in the local housing market complicate the Reserve Bank's efforts to stabilize overall inflation.
Deep dives
The Persistent Challenge of Inflation
Inflation has remained a significant concern in the economy, especially in the context of housing and consumer prices. Many borrowers are feeling the pressure as high interest rates persist, resulting in a stagnant housing market and individuals dipping into savings for daily necessities. The Reserve Bank has surprised many by maintaining its hawkish stance on monetary policy, extending high interest rates even amid a technical recession. This enduring inflation is linked to domestic factors such as government fees, housing prices, and insurance costs, which are not easily influenced by changes in interest rates.
Insights from the Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy
The Reserve Bank's recent monetary policy statement revealed a slight increase in inflation forecasts, primarily due to persistent domestic inflation pressures. The Chief Economist, Paul Conway, highlighted that while imported inflation has eased, non-tradables inflation continues to rise, driven by factors such as construction costs, local council rates, and insurance premiums. This indicates a need for cautious navigation as the Reserve Bank assesses its next steps in setting interest rates while ensuring that inflation aligns with target bands. The projected official cash rate is not expected to change significantly until at least mid-2025, reflecting the economy's complex dynamics.
The Impact of Migration on Housing Supply
The combination of rising rents and an increase in population growth due to migration has created significant pressure in the housing market. Challenges like insufficient housing supply and increased demand have led to higher rents, complicating the inflation landscape. The Reserve Bank recognizes that local government policies and long-term strategies play crucial roles in addressing these issues, but they aren't directly influenced by monetary policy. This complicates the path to achieving lower inflation, as persistent rent hikes and regulatory changes are tied to broader economic factors that transcend immediate market reactions.
Reserve Bank Chief Economist Paul Conway joins Bernard in the immediate aftermath of a surprisingly hawkish monetary policy statement, and just before the Budget. Together they discuss sources of inflation, why interest rates are staying high for longer than anyone expected, and whether the blunt instrument of the official cash rate can do anything about this extra-sticky inflation.