The podcast dives into the tumultuous history of Syria, starting from the 2011 protests and brutal crackdown that spiraled into civil war. It highlights the complex power landscape in northern Syria, where various factions vie for control. An unsettling resurgence of ISIS is taking place in the northeast, posing security challenges. The roles of international players, particularly the U.S. and Turkey, are examined amid the struggle for autonomy by Kurdish forces. Additionally, a stark contrast in economic conditions between the north and south reveals the dire humanitarian situation.
Syria's divided north remains highly unstable due to rival factions and external influences, complicating the region's future governance and security.
The resurgence of ISIS poses a significant threat in northeastern Syria, highlighting the urgent humanitarian crisis and the Kurdish-led SDF's struggle against limited resources.
Deep dives
Divided Governance in Northern Syria
Syria's north is characterized by a complex power structure where different factions control various territories. President Assad's regime holds sway over two-thirds of the country but has lost control of the north, which is divided among Islamist groups, Kurdish forces, and Turkish-backed factions. The region around the Euphrates River serves as a natural boundary, separating the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces in the northeast from Turkey-backed Syrian National Army forces in the west. Despite their mutual opposition to Assad, these groups have minimal common ground regarding Syria's future, complicated further by the interests of external actors such as Turkey, Iran, Russia, and the United States.
ISIS Resurgence and Local Challenges
Though significantly weakened, ISIS remains an active threat in northeastern Syria, with thousands of fighters still in the region. Reports indicate that the group is rapidly increasing its attack rates and recruiting actively, which raises concerns about their ability to regain influence. ISIS has also been extorting locals through tax invoices, enforcing compliance with violent reprisals. The challenge of managing this resurgence falls heavily on the Kurdish-led SDF, which struggles with limited resources and security to contain ISIS fighters housed in makeshift prisons and secure camps.
Shifting Political Dynamics and Humanitarian Concerns
International relations surrounding Syria are evolving, with some countries considering normalizing ties with Assad, driven by national security concerns and managing refugee flows. Turkey's changing stance reflects a strategic pivot that may threaten existing Kurdish autonomy and shift the power balance in northern Syria. Despite these geopolitical shifts, humanitarian needs remain acute, with millions facing infrastructure failures and displacement. Unfortunately, current diplomatic efforts are neglecting the realities on the ground, leaving the inhabitants of the north anxious about their future amid mounting instability and potential violence.
When protests against decades of rule by the Assad family were crushed by Syrian government forces in the spring of 2011, opposition groups took up arms and the country descended into civil war. The conflict drew in Syria’s Kurds, jihadi groups including Islamic State and al-Qaeda, and the international community.
13 years on President Assad controls around two thirds of the country, but northern Syria remains out of the regime's grip and is highly volatile. Internal divisions, international influences and a worsening humanitarian situation may be about to further destabilise the region, with potentially serious consequences for Syria and the world. So, in this episode of The Inquiry, we’re asking ‘What’s the future for Syria’s divided north?’
Contributors
Dr Burcu Ozcelik, Senior Research Fellow for Middle East Security at the Royal United Services Institute.
Charles Lister, Director of the Syria and Countering Terrorism & Extremism programs, Middle East Institute.
Qutaiba Idlbi, Director of the Syria Initiative at the Atlantic Council.
Emma Beals, Senior Advisor at the European Institute of Peace and a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute in Washington.