The Transformative Potential of Artificial Intelligence
Apr 16, 2024
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AI researchers Ross Gruetzemacher and Jess Whittlestone discuss transformative AI, categorizing it into Narrowly, Transformative, and Radically transformative levels. They compare AI to historical revolutions, stress policy implications, and explore societal impacts of AI technologies like reinforcement learning and transformer models.
Transformative AI can create sector-specific impacts or broad societal transformations.
Comparisons to historical revolutions help conceptualize AI's potential societal shifts.
Rigorous frameworks and collaborations are essential to navigate AI's implications.
Deep dives
Understanding the Impact of Advanced Artificial Intelligence
Advanced artificial intelligence remains a critical subject, potentially leading to significant societal impacts, distinct from human-level cognitive abilities. This distinction suggests transformative AI, signifying substantial societal consequences without attaining human-like intelligence.
Framework for Transformative AI Levels
A proposed framework defines three levels of transformative AI: narrowly transformative AI, transformative AI, and radically transformative AI. These delineate the extent of practically irreversible societal changes that AI technologies or applications could precipitate, ranging from sector-specific impacts to broader societal transformations.
Historical Analogs and AI Impacts
Examining historical parallels like the industrial revolution aids in understanding the potential societal transformation from advancements in AI. Comparisons are drawn, indicating how AI could lead to productivity shifts and societal changes equivalent to transformative general-purpose technologies like electricity.
Routes to Societal Impact Through AI Developments
Potential pathways to widespread societal impact from AI include the application of current technologies like supervised learning and advancements in offline reinforcement learning. Transformative language models and decision-making engines may drive broad societal transformations similar to past innovations.
Envisioning Future AI Implications
Exploring future landscapes involving transformative artificial intelligence necessitates rigorous analytical frameworks and interdisciplinary collaborations. Considerations span from anticipatory assumptions about AI's impacts to implications on societal, economic, and existential levels, requiring comprehensive evaluation and proactive planning.
This paper by Ross Gruetzemacher and Jess Whittlestone examines the concept of transformative AI, which significantly impacts society without necessarily achieving human-level cognitive abilities. The authors propose three categories of transformation: Narrowly Transformative AI, affecting specific domains like the military; Transformative AI, causing broad changes akin to general-purpose technologies such as electricity; and Radically Transformative AI, inducing profound societal shifts comparable to the Industrial Revolution.
Note: this resource uses “GPT” to refer to general purpose technologies, which they define as “a technology that initially has much scope for improvement and eventually comes to be widely used.” Keep in mind that this is a different term than a generative pre-trained transformer (GPT), which is a type of large language model used in systems like ChatGPT.