Scott Lincicome, a trade policy expert, dives into the trade positions of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. He argues that both leaders lean towards protectionism, using tariffs as political tools rather than champions of free trade. Lincicome also discusses the impact of Trump's exit from international trade agreements and the uncertainty surrounding future trade policies under a Harris administration. Despite political headwinds and challenges, he highlights the surprising resilience of global trade and individual interactions driving economic connections.
Kamala Harris's trade stance reveals a blend of pro-free trade rhetoric and protectionist tendencies influenced by labor union pressures.
Donald Trump's protectionist trade policies, including tariffs and withdrawal from agreements like TPP, signify a departure from traditional free trade principles.
Deep dives
Kamala Harris's Trade Stance
Kamala Harris's position on trade remains politically ambiguous, showcasing a mix of pro-free trade sentiments and criticism of existing agreements. During her previous roles, she expressed opposition to tariffs and deemed them harmful to the economy, while simultaneously criticizing Donald Trump's USMCA renegotiation for not addressing environmental and labor standards adequately. Her articulate stance against tariffs raises questions about her genuine commitment to free trade, considering her critiques may have been politically motivated rather than rooted in substantive economic policy. This uncertainty leaves little clarity on what her trade policies would be if she were to take office, especially in a political climate where labor unions significantly influence trade discussions.
Trump's Trade Policy Record
Donald Trump's previous trade policies are characterized by a significant departure from traditional free trade agreements, exemplified by his withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). This decision is regarded as a major policy error, with repercussions that have negatively impacted American exporters while benefiting countries that continued with the agreement. Trump's administration also adopted a protectionist approach, imposing tariffs on various goods, including steel and solar panels, aligning with a national security perspective on trade. This history indicates that a potential second Trump administration would likely continue advocating for high tariffs and restrictive trade measures, emphasizing an aggressive stance towards countries like China.
The Future of Trade Under a Harris Administration
The prospect of a Harris administration signals continuity rather than significant change in trade policy, likely mirroring the existing Biden administration's approach. Expected policies may include support for the Inflation Reduction Act and the CHIPS Act, which promote industrial policy and environmental initiatives. However, there remains skepticism about a possible shift toward more favorable trade relations, especially if labor unions continue to exert strong influence over policy decisions. Ultimately, while there may be some minor modifications based on the internal dynamics of the Democratic Party, both candidates seem poised to prioritize protectionist policies rather than a robust advocacy for global free trade.
Neither Donald Trump nor Kamala Harris will make a full-throated defense of the freedom to trade, and both would use trade restrictions to score points or compel Americans' behavior. Scott Lincicome discusses their policy preferences.