Guest Dario Perkins from TS Lombard discusses Brr-man Powell, USD inflation, Russia, and trading a Biden win. Topics include geopolitical tensions, interest rates, economic growth, and the impact of 3% inflation on the economy.
Speculation on central bank rate cuts in June may lead to surprises for investors, betting on unexpected moves is crucial.
Chinese hoarding of copper stocks raises geopolitical speculation, urging cautious trading due to uncertainty over its motives.
Biden's focus on green transitions and possible inflationary policies suggests buying natural gas options before the election for potential gains.
Deep dives
Central Banks' Cutting Season Expectations
Speculation is high on the central banks starting rate cuts in June, but the uniform consensus may lead to surprises. Betting on the surprises could be key. Euro duration has been favored due to signs of possible early rate cut discussions and benign money trends in the Eurozone.
Chinese Copper Stockpiling Speculation
Chinese hoarding of copper stocks has led to speculation about potential geopolitical moves or an electric grid overhaul. The market is uncertain whether the hoarding is based on valid reasons or knee-jerk reactions, prompting caution in trading.
Biden's Potential Inflationary Impact
Biden's administration is associated with inflation, relying on fiscal deficit spending. His long-term focus on green transitions and shift from drilling signals a possible inflationary president, suggesting buying out-of-the-money calls on natural gas before the election.
European Central Bank's Rate Cut Predictions
Expectations point towards the European Central Bank initiating a rate cut earlier than expected, possibly in April, deviating from the consensus of a June cut. Eurozone duration bet leans on diverging money trends and hints of an upcoming rate adjustment.
South Korea's Value Trade Consensus
South Korea emerges as a consensus value trade pick, indicating a favorable outlook by hedge fund clients. New Zealand also presents as an undervalued case. China's possible political motivations behind hoarding copper raise speculation and trading uncertainty.