Saxo Market Call Bearish conviction rising again. Can the Fed cut as early as July?
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Jun 12, 2025 The conversation takes a bearish turn as trade policy issues heighten concerns about the U.S. economy. The market reflects anxiety over tariff talks, impacting equities. There's buzzing speculation about potential early cuts from the Federal Reserve. The U.S. dollar shows weakness against the euro and Japanese yen, raising questions about market stability. Oracle's impressive earnings also make a splash, influencing investor sentiment. Join in for insights on these pivotal trends shaping the financial landscape.
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Growing Bearishness on US Equities
- The US equity market is showing signs of increasing bearish sentiment due to rising trade tensions and economic concerns.
- Tariff announcements and budget deficit data highlight growing risks to growth and investor confidence.
China's Trade Leverage Persists
- The US-China trade deal remains uncertain with key issues on tariffs and rare earth exports unresolved.
- China’s control over critical industrial components gives it significant leverage in trade negotiations.
Market Underestimates Fed Cuts
- Recent soft US CPI data and tariffs talk shifted markets with dollar and Treasury yields falling.
- The market underestimates the likelihood of a Fed rate cut as soon as July if weak jobs data continues.