Coda Minerals (ASX:COD) - 95% Copper Recovery, $802 Million Post-Tax NPV

Jul 11, 2025

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Interview with Chris Stevens, CEO of Coda Minerals Ltd.

Our previous interview: https://www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/coda-minerals-asxcod-copper-cobalt-project-demonstrates-robust-economics-7009

Recording date: 8th July 2025

Coda Minerals Limited (ASX:COD) represents a compelling investment opportunity in the rapidly strengthening copper market, positioned at the critical intersection of technical innovation, proven management execution, and exceptional infrastructure advantages. The Perth-based company has achieved a transformational metallurgical breakthrough at its Elizabeth Creek copper-cobalt-silver project in South Australia, fundamentally altering the project's economics and development pathway.

The company's most significant achievement is the successful development of an ammonium chloride whole ore leaching process that delivers recovery rates exceeding 95%, representing a dramatic improvement from the previous 55% recovery rates at the Windabout deposit. CEO Chris Stevens characterizes this advancement as "effectively free money," highlighting the direct revenue enhancement potential over the mine's life. This breakthrough eliminates a major technical risk while opening possibilities for smaller-scale startup operations with reduced capital requirements and earlier cash flow generation.

Elizabeth Creek's robust project economics align closely with recently acquired Australian copper companies, delivering an $802 million NPV post-tax with a 35% IRR based on over one million tons of contained copper equivalent in JORC indicated resources. Critically, 93% of resources are classified as indicated, providing exceptional geological confidence rarely seen at this development stage. These economics become particularly compelling when viewed against recent takeover activity, with Rex Minerals acquired for $393 million, New World Resources subject to competing bids exceeding $230 million, and Xanadu Mines accepting a $160 million offer.

Stevens emphasizes the validation from peer transactions: "There is now empirical evidence that companies that are able to do that with credible solid projects with comparable MPVs, comparable IRRs, comparable capexes are being valued over $200 million." This peer group comparison suggests significant value realization potential as Coda advances through its 12-month Pre-Feasibility Study timeline.

The company's management team brings proven execution capability, having previously developed 17 projects and transformed Elizabeth Creek from two open pits to five times the original resource base. Stevens notes: "This is a team that has taken, frankly, a bit of a busted project with two open pits, turned it into five times the resources." The team's disciplined approach to capital allocation and project advancement provides confidence in their ability to deliver on development milestones.

Elizabeth Creek benefits from exceptional infrastructure advantages that distinguish it from typical remote Australian developments. Located adjacent to BHP's established haulage road with contractual usage rights, the project sits one hour from Roxby Downs and maintains access to power infrastructure and established supply chains. South Australia's streamlined regulatory environment offers additional advantages through its unique iterative approval process.

The investment opportunity is enhanced by favorable copper market timing, with prices advancing from $8,000 to over $10,000 per ton while financing availability improves and capital costs reduce. Stevens observes the strategic timing: "I personally think doing that is maybe leaving a party just as it starts to get exciting with the way that copper's moving."

Coda maintains strong financial positioning with over $4 million cash and low corporate costs, providing runway to advance critical path items without immediate dilution pressure. The company's critical minerals classification through cobalt credits enhances strategic value while multiple development pathways provide flexibility in capital structure approaches.

For investors seeking exposure to the copper supply shortage driven by electrification trends, Coda offers a de-risked entry point with established resources, proven economics, exceptional infrastructure, and experienced management positioned to deliver significant value appreciation through the critical feasibility phase.

View Coda Minerals' company profile: https://www.cruxinvestor.com/companies/coda-minerals-ltd