Is the Danger of a NATO-Russia War Growing?

Ukraine’s war has entered a new phase, with Russia launching a major offensive in the east and south. This follows Moscow pulling back its forces from around Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, after fierce Ukrainian resistance and seemingly changing its immediate goals to focus on capturing more of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region. Kyiv’s Western allies have pledged to increase supplies of advanced weaponry to help Ukrainian forces fend off Russia’s latest offensive. 

This week on Hold Your Fire! Richard Atwood is joined by Olga Oliker, Crisis Group’s Europe & Central Asia Director, for the latest update on the fighting in Donbas, how Western capitals have responded and whether the risks of direct confrontation between NATO and Russia are growing. They discuss what’s happening on the front lines in Donbas and ask what the latest fighting says about Moscow’s tactics and goals. They talk about the likelihood of Russia trying to capture a land bridge across southwest Ukraine to the breakaway Moldovan region of Transnistria, as one Russian general has threatened. They also talk about policy in Western capitals, as NATO member states pledge to send more weapons to Kyiv, and how well Western leaders are balancing the need to support Ukraine while minimising risks of a NATO-Russia war that could rapidly turn nuclear. They also talk about the prospects of diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict. 

For more on the Ukraine War, check out Crisis Group’s extensive analysis on our Ukraine country page.

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