Lawfare Daily: A Ukraine Update with Eric Ciaramella and Anastasiia Lapatina
Nov 29, 2024
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Join Eric Ciaramella, an expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, and Anastasiia Lapatina, Lawfare's Ukraine Fellow, as they discuss the evolving conflict in Ukraine. Despite recent missile escalations, Ukrainian optimism shines through the uncertainty surrounding U.S. political changes. The duo analyzes the complexities of military strategies and the effects of foreign policy, including challenges in Kursk and Donetsk. They also explore the potential for strengthening Ukraine's defense production by drawing lessons from Israel’s military model.
The recent Russian missile launch against Ukraine has been deemed more of a political statement than a substantial military threat, indicating ongoing tensions.
Despite challenges, there is a surprising optimism among Ukrainians regarding potential U.S. policy changes with the upcoming presidential election.
Deep dives
Recent Russian Military Actions and Their Implications
Recently, Russia launched an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) against Ukraine, which, while alarming, has been assessed as more of a political message than a significant military threat. The missile, initially misclassified by Ukrainian authorities as an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), was aimed at a military target in Dnipro, resulting in panic among residents but minimal actual damage. Analysts suggest that this display was a reaction to the U.S. allowing Ukraine to use ATAKAMS in its own military operations and aimed to signal resistance against perceived Western aggression. Despite its designation as a nuclear-capable weapon, its limited military utility compared to existing Russian capabilities underscores its nature as a strategic bluff rather than a genuine escalation of hostilities.
Challenges and Critiques of Ukrainian Military Strategy
The situation for Ukrainian forces is increasingly dire, with reports indicating a loss of nearly 40% of previously held territory in key regions like Kursk. Analysts express concern over the Ukrainian military's decision to maintain control over disputed areas at high costs, suggesting a tactical success may be morphing into a strategic blunder. The manpower crisis within the Ukrainian military complicates the situation further, as many potential soldiers are hesitant to join due to a lack of confidence in their commanders and concerns over the high risks associated with infantry roles. This crisis in recruitment reflects a broader issue of trust in military leadership, prompting discussions about the need for comprehensive reforms and improved messaging around mobilization efforts.
International Responses and Shifts in Weapon Delivery Policies
In light of ongoing conflict, the Biden administration has begun allowing Ukraine to utilize ATAKAMS deep within Russian territory, a move that Ukrainian officials had long awaited. However, the response to this decision has been mixed, with some perceiving it as underwhelming and limited in scope compared to the broader expectations of a game-changing shift in the war dynamics. The Ukrainian military has successfully conducted several targeted strikes, yet the continued challenges in manpower and resources have led to frustrations about the slow pace of military aid from the West. These weapon deliveries, while crucial, have been criticized for their delayed implementation and the perception among Ukrainians that U.S. administrations, particularly under Biden, are overly cautious, which could undermine effective support against Russian aggression.
Optimism Amidst Uncertainty Regarding U.S. Political Changes
Despite the grim military outlook, there exists a notable optimism among some Ukrainian officials about the potential for change following the next U.S. presidential election. This response is partly driven by dissatisfaction with the current Biden administration's approach to the war and a belief that a shift in leadership could lead to more favorable policies. Ukrainians are positioning themselves to influence incoming officials by emphasizing the need for strong support against Russia, despite past relations with Trump that have been fraught with contradictions. This dynamic illustrates a complex blend of dependency on U.S. support and a strategic gamble to reshape future American involvement in the ongoing conflict.
Despite the Russian launch of a new ballistic missile against Ukraine, the ATACMS not being a game-changer, and a front that is eroding in several key areas, Ukrainians are actually optimistic about the incoming Trump administration. Lawfare Editor-in-Chief Benjamin Wittes sits down with Lawfare Ukraine Fellow Anastasiia Lapatina and Eric Ciaramella of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace to talk about all of these issues and more.
