HousingWire Daily Logan Mohtashami on the state of the economy
24 snips
Nov 10, 2025 
Logan Mohtashami, a lead analyst specializing in housing and mortgage markets, shares his insights on the current U.S. economy. He discusses how alternate labor data reveals critical trends for the Fed and examines the mixed signals from GDP trackers. Logan identifies weakening job sectors, particularly manufacturing and construction, while highlighting resilience in services and healthcare. He explains the effects of inflation and Fed policy on mortgage rates, suggesting that rates near 6% could boost housing activity.
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Split Economy: Growth Vs. Labor Slowdown
- The economy shows mixed signals: strong GDP and AI CapEx but weakening labor at the lower end.
- Private payroll trackers and soft job openings point to labor-market slowdown driving policy decisions.
Sectoral Job Divergence
- Manufacturing and construction jobs have been losing ground since late 2022 while services and healthcare hold up.
- That sectoral divergence explains softer aggregate payrolls despite solid consumption by homeowners.
Supreme Court Could Shift 2026 Outlook
- The Supreme Court decision on tariffs could materially change the 2026 outlook by returning tariff revenue and easing goods inflation.
- Lower goods inflation plus existing tax cuts and lower energy could make 2026 notably better.