Lawfare Daily: The Wagner Group, One Year After Prigozhin with Vanda Felbab-Brown
Aug 28, 2024
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Vanda Felbab-Brown, a Senior Fellow in Foreign Policy at the Brookings Institution and expert on nonstate armed actors, delves into the aftermath of Yevgeny Prigozhin's leadership in the Wagner Group. She unpacks recent military skirmishes in Mali, showcasing the group's evolving strategies and tactics amid heavy casualties. The discussion highlights Wagner’s integration with local forces and its implications for regional stability, as well as Russia's broader ambitions in Africa, revealing a complex web of power and exploitation.
The recent military ambush in Mali highlights the deteriorating effectiveness of the Wagner Group, now Africa Corps, amid local resistance.
Despite significant losses, the Kremlin's strategy ensures continued support for the Wagner Group in Mali, stabilizing its interests in Africa.
Deep dives
Recent Developments in Northern Mali
A significant military engagement occurred in late July in northern Mali, where Tuareg groups formed an alliance with the Al-Qaeda-linked group JNIM against the Malian forces and Russian mercenaries. This confrontation resulted in substantial casualties for both the Malian army and the Wagner Group's rebranded section, known as Africa Corps. The joint action by the Tuareg and JNIM marks a notable shift as the Tuareg had previously been part of a peace deal, but their relationship with the Malian government deteriorated due to the Wagner Group's actions against them. This ambush is viewed as a major tactical defeat for the Wagner Group, raising questions about its perceived effectiveness in the region and the strategic implications for its presence in Mali.
Wagner Group's Role and Strategic Shifts
The Wagner Group, now called Africa Corps, initially supported the Malian junta by promising to secure the government and fight against insurgent groups. However, the group's focus has increasingly been on targeting Tuareg rebels rather than addressing the broader terrorist threats posed by Islamic State or Al-Qaeda affiliates. The operational decisions made by the Wagner Group and the junta have exacerbated local tensions, prompting insurgent factions to unite against them. As a result, the ongoing conflict dynamics in Mali highlight the limitations of Russia's military and strategic approach, which has largely avoided direct confrontations with more formidable jihadist forces.
Impact of Recent Casualties on Moscow's Perception
Despite the significant losses sustained by the Wagner Group in Mali, these incidents are not expected to lead to widespread public outcry or political consequences in Russia. The Kremlin’s strategy of plausible deniability in foreign operations allows it to mitigate potential backlash from the Russian populace regarding mercenary casualties abroad. Furthermore, the Malian junta remains reliant on the Wagner Group, leaving little room for alternative support as they face pressure from both domestic and external insurgent groups. Thus, while the tactical defeat complicates the narrative of Wagner's effectiveness, it does not fundamentally jeopardize their strategic partnership with the Malian government.
The Future of Russian Influence in Africa
Russia's involvement in Africa continues to be a key element of its foreign policy, focusing on securing strategic bases and resources while countering Western influence. The restructuring of the Wagner Group post-Prigozhin's death has shifted operational control to the Russian military, ensuring their interests in Africa remain intact. Russian entities are leveraging existing networks of organized crime and resource extraction to maintain their hold over African nations amidst the geopolitical pressures from the West. As tensions rise and conflict dynamics evolve, the ramifications of these actions may lead to increased instability and further complicate Russia's relationships with African governments.
On today’s episode, Vanda Felbab-Brown, Director of the Initiative on Nonstate Armed Actors, Co-Director of the Africa Security Initiative, and Senior Fellow in Foreign Policy at the Brookings Institution joins Lawfare Managing Editor Tyler McBrien to help make sense of the recent skirmishes in northern Mali between the junta, separatist groups, Islamists, and Russian mercenaries.
They discuss what the recent ambush in Mali portends for Russian and Russian-aligned mercenaries' activities in Africa and look back at how Moscow has restructured and reframed the Wagner Group in the year since the death of its former head, Yevgeny Prigozhin.
