America‘s Commercial Real Estate Show Industrial Outlook & Forecast with Ermengarde Jabir
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Jun 26, 2025 Ermengarde Jabir, Director of Economic Research at Moody's Analytics, offers keen insights into the industrial real estate market's future. She discusses how tariffs, wars, and oil prices are intricately linked to market performance. Jabir highlights current trends, like evolving inventory management strategies in retail and their impact on demand for warehouse space. She also examines the effects of rising oil prices on transportation costs and consumer behavior, revealing exciting opportunities in cold storage and grocery sectors.
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Stable Industrial Market Performance
- Industrial real estate performance is stable but below 2021-2022 highs, with about 7% vacancy nationally.
- This 7% vacancy is strong compared to pre-2020 averages of 11-12%, showing a new higher growth path.
Shift in Industrial Demand
- Demand has slowed mainly for large warehouse spaces while flex properties perform better with lower vacancy.
- Regional variation affects demand, with flex spaces currently more in demand than large warehouse facilities.
Manufacturing Construction Trends
- Manufacturing construction spending peaked in mid-2024 but is now trending downward.
- Despite decline, current manufacturing investment remains historically higher than previous years.