Shashank Joshi, Defence Editor at The Economist, dives into the serious implications of Russia's evolving nuclear doctrine. He discusses the strategic value of ATACMS for Ukraine and the controversial use of anti-personnel landmines. The conversation delves into the risks of escalation, how Western military support could shift the dynamics, and the likelihood of nuclear deployment amidst rising tensions. Joshi provides expert insights on the geopolitical landscape and the complexities of military technology in the ongoing conflict.
The controversial decision to supply Ukraine with non-persistent anti-personnel landmines raises concerns about their effectiveness and civilian safety.
Russia's revised nuclear doctrine indicates a dangerously lower threshold for nuclear weapons use, amplifying fears of potential escalation in the conflict.
Deep dives
US Support with Controversial Landmines
The recent decision by the US government to supply Ukraine with anti-personnel landmines has sparked considerable debate. These landmines are designed to detonate when a person approaches, targeting mainly soldiers rather than armored vehicles. While the US military argues for their utility in military operations, the use of such mines is controversial due to existing international bans, like the Ottawa Convention. The landmines provided to Ukraine are non-persistent, meaning they are intended to deactivate after a specific time, but concerns persist regarding their actual effectiveness and the potential risk to civilians.
Changes in Russia's Nuclear Doctrine
The approval of changes to Russia's nuclear doctrine signifies a shift towards a lower threshold for nuclear weapons usage. Previously, Russia would employ nuclear force only in response to attacks threatening its very existence; now, any perceived threat to its territorial integrity could justify such a response. This includes conditions involving threats to territories like Crimea and Donetsk, raising alarms among Western powers about potential escalation. Experts suggest that while Russia has signaled its readiness to deploy nuclear weapons, the likelihood of actual use remains low, as the risks outweigh the potential gains.
Implications of Long-Range Missiles in the Conflict
The authorization for Ukraine to use American-supplied long-range Atakums missiles against Russian targets marks a significant escalation in the conflict. While there is speculation about the extent of American military involvement in targeting, it is clear that the US prefers to maintain some oversight to prevent irresponsible strikes. The recent strikes confirm the deployment of these missiles, resulting in anxiety from Russian officials, who view this as a direct escalation of Western involvement. The dynamic of openly discussing military policy decisions raises questions about strategic advantages, as public announcements may inadvertently provide tactical intelligence to Russia.
Your questions answered on ATACMS, land mines and the risk of escalation
Jamie and Vitaly are joined by the defence editor of the Economist, Shashank Joshi, to examine how useful ATACMS can be for Ukraine, what exactly are anti-personnel land-mines and whether we should take Russia's change to its nuclear doctrine seriously.
Today’s episode is presented by Jamie Coomarasamy and Vitaly Shevchenko.
The producer was Ben Carter. The technical producer was Mike Regaard. The series producer is Tim Walklate. The senior news editor is Sara Wadeson.
Email Ukrainecast@bbc.co.uk with your questions and comments. You can also send us a message or voice note via WhatsApp, Signal or Telegram to +44 330 1239480
You can join the Ukrainecast discussion on Newscast’s Discord server here: tinyurl.com/ukrainecastdiscord
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