The U.S Dollar Wrecking Ball In A China Shop | Michael Kao & Nick Glinsman

6 snips

Aug 23, 2023

Guest

Nick Glinsman

Guest

Michael Kao

Former hedge fund manager turned private investor Michael Kao and Co-Founder at Malmgren-Glinsman Partners Nick Glinsman discuss China's debt problem, real estate headwinds, and battle with deflation. They explore the impact of the 'U.S Dollar wrecking ball' in Asia and the future of the U.S treasury market. Other topics include the implications of embracing the US dollar, lack of cooperation between PBOC and Fed, sovereign debt Jubilee, weaknesses in central bank minds, and geopolitical perspectives on economic instabilities.

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Episode notes

Introduction

00:00 • 4min

China's Deflationary Pressure and Impact on Inflation

03:54 • 21min

Implications of Resetting the Economy and Embracing the US Dollar

25:16 • 3min

Lack of Cooperation between PBOC and Fed

28:09 • 14min

Exploring the Concept of Sovereign Debt Jubilee and its Implications

42:28 • 5min

Weaknesses in Central Bank Minds and the Shift towards Procyclical Fiscal Policy

46:58 • 11min

Geopolitical Perspectives on Economic Instabilities

58:10 • 18min

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On today's episode of On The Margin, Michael Kao former hedge fund manager turned private investor & Nick Glinsman Co-Founder at Malmgren-Glinsman Partners join the show.

With every recent headline revolving around China, we invite two China watchers to the show for a deep dive on China's debt problem, real estate headwinds & battle with outright deflation. We discuss the impact of the "U.S Dollar wrecking ball", which has being swinging in Asia, and what "trouble" lies ahead for the U.S treasury market. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!

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Referenced In The Show:

Geopolitics/Inflation/USD-Ball In A China Shop: https://www.urbankaoboy.com/p/re-geopoliticsinflationusd-ball-in

USD/China - The Donkey Kong Dollar Peg: https://www.urbankaoboy.com/p/re-usdchina-the-donkey-kong-dollar

Inflation/Real Estate - CRE Trends / The Strong US Consumer & The "Ivan Drago" Fed: https://www.urbankaoboy.com/p/re-inflationreal-estate-cre-trends

Mental Models-Destructive/Constructive Interference In Econ Cycles: https://www.urbankaoboy.com/p/re-mental-model-destructiveconstructive

USD Wrecking Ball - Whither Art Thou?: https://www.urbankaoboy.com/p/re-usd-wrecking-ball-whither-art

Inflation-The Case for Bear Steepening/Why The Fed Won’t Pivot Soon: https://www.urbankaoboy.com/p/re-inflation-the-case-for-bear-steepeningwhy

Geopolitical Mosh Pits & Sovereign Debt Endgames: https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1578888215494156289

West Point Paper -- Part 1/4: https://www.urbankaoboy.com/p/west-point-paper-part-14?r=jt0hj

Timestamps:

(00:00) Introduction

(00:44) USD Wrecking Ball In A China Shop

(11:05) China’s 40-Year Boom Is Over

(26:13) Permissionless Ad

(27:24) What's Causing The Bond Market Sell-Off?

(36:56) Bull vs Bear Steepening: Making Sense Of The Yield Curve

(44:40) Blockworks Research

(45:27) Geopolitical Mosh Pits & Sovereign Debt Endgames

(58:06) The Sovereign Debt Endgame

(01:04:21) China's Impending Minsky Moment

Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.