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On today's episode of On The Margin, Michael Kao former hedge fund manager turned private investor & Nick Glinsman Co-Founder at Malmgren-Glinsman Partners join the show.
With every recent headline revolving around China, we invite two China watchers to the show for a deep dive on China's debt problem, real estate headwinds & battle with outright deflation. We discuss the impact of the "U.S Dollar wrecking ball", which has being swinging in Asia, and what "trouble" lies ahead for the U.S treasury market. To hear all this & more, you'll have to tune in!
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Use code MARGIN30 to get 30% off Permissionless 2023 in Austin: https://blockworks.co/event/permissionless-2023
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Research, news, data, governance and models – now, all in one place. As a listener of On The Margin, you can use code "MARGIN10" for a 10% discount when signing up to Blockworks Research https://www.blockworksresearch.com/
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Referenced In The Show:
Geopolitics/Inflation/USD-Ball In A China Shop: https://www.urbankaoboy.com/p/re-geopoliticsinflationusd-ball-in
USD/China - The Donkey Kong Dollar Peg: https://www.urbankaoboy.com/p/re-usdchina-the-donkey-kong-dollar
Inflation/Real Estate - CRE Trends / The Strong US Consumer & The "Ivan Drago" Fed: https://www.urbankaoboy.com/p/re-inflationreal-estate-cre-trends
Mental Models-Destructive/Constructive Interference In Econ Cycles: https://www.urbankaoboy.com/p/re-mental-model-destructiveconstructive
USD Wrecking Ball - Whither Art Thou?: https://www.urbankaoboy.com/p/re-usd-wrecking-ball-whither-art
Inflation-The Case for Bear Steepening/Why The Fed Won’t Pivot Soon: https://www.urbankaoboy.com/p/re-inflation-the-case-for-bear-steepeningwhy
Geopolitical Mosh Pits & Sovereign Debt Endgames: https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1578888215494156289
West Point Paper -- Part 1/4: https://www.urbankaoboy.com/p/west-point-paper-part-14?r=jt0hj
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(00:44) USD Wrecking Ball In A China Shop
(11:05) China’s 40-Year Boom Is Over
(26:13) Permissionless Ad
(27:24) What's Causing The Bond Market Sell-Off?
(36:56) Bull vs Bear Steepening: Making Sense Of The Yield Curve
(44:40) Blockworks Research
(45:27) Geopolitical Mosh Pits & Sovereign Debt Endgames
(58:06) The Sovereign Debt Endgame
(01:04:21) China's Impending Minsky Moment
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.
