Street Signals
Special Edition: 5 Themes and 15 Ideas for 2024
Dec 11, 2023
In this special edition, the podcast focuses on trade ideas for 2024. They discuss minimizing regret in investing, potential yield in a business cycle slowdown, and the outperformance of US tech stocks. It also explores challenges in Canada's mortgage market, trade ideas like shorting JGBs and investing in emerging markets, and the performance change of European industrials. Disclaimer: not investment advice.
24:29
AI Summary
AI Chapters
Episode notes
Podcast summary created with Snipd AI
Quick takeaways
- The prospect of a US recession suggests going overweight on treasuries and potential price increases in the future.
- The Bank of Japan may need to normalize rates with aggressive yield curve control, while the Bank of England is expected to be less aggressive with rate cuts.
Deep dives
Theme 1: Prospects of a US recession
One of the main themes discussed in the podcast is the prospect of a US recession. The host, Tim Graf, expresses his view of going overweight on treasuries due to the likelihood of slower US growth. He emphasizes that while he is agnostic about a recession, there is a 90% chance according to a recession probability model. The view is supported by strong buying from institutional investors and a relatively low level of holdings, indicating potential for future price increases.
Remember Everything You Learn from Podcasts
Save insights instantly, chat with episodes, and build lasting knowledge - all powered by AI.
