Forward Guidance CPI, Yields, & The Growth Debate | Weekly Roundup
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Jan 17, 2025 This week, the discussion dives into the latest CPI data and its influence on market trends. The hosts analyze economic indicators, highlighting contrasting inflation patterns between goods and services. They explore the evolving credit cycle and the potential impact of a Bank of Japan rate hike. The conversation also touches on shifts in market sentiment, with a focus on the rotation from large-cap to equal-weight indices and implications for cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. A lively debate on trading strategies for Inauguration Day adds an intriguing twist!
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CPI Print Insights
- CPI data released, seemingly positive, drove market rallies.
- Deeper analysis reveals stickiness in services inflation offsetting goods disinflation.
Inflation Data Skepticism
- The recent positive inflation data might be politically influenced, given the timing.
- Focus on underlying commodity prices (oil, natural gas, copper) which are rising.
Market Positioning & Dollar
- Market reactions, like the bond yield drop, are heavily influenced by extreme positioning.
- The dollar's prior strength and subsequent reversal contributed to market fluctuations.