
The DSR Network
WAGD: What is Driving China’s Changing Nuclear Policy? with Tong Zhao
Oct 25, 2024
Tong Zhao, a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, dives into the shifting landscape of China's nuclear policy. He explores how Xi Jinping’s leadership is reshaping nuclear strategy, blending traditional deterrence with newfound warfighting capabilities. The discussion reveals how U.S. military strategies influence China's nuclear perceptions, particularly regarding low-yield weapons. Zhao also addresses the interplay between U.S. nuclear policies and China's ambitions, emphasizing the importance of nuanced understanding in this evolving dynamic.
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Quick takeaways
- China's nuclear modernization is primarily driven by political motivations, reflecting a strategic posture rather than solely military needs.
- There exists a significant gap between China's expanding nuclear capabilities and a coherent strategy for their operational use in conflicts.
Deep dives
The Political Drivers of China's Nuclear Policy
China's nuclear modernization is influenced more by political priorities than purely military technical concerns. While there is recognition of threats from U.S. missile defense systems, the contemporary scale and timing of China's nuclear buildup stem from high-level political decisions emphasizing nuclear weapons as tools of political posture rather than just military deterrents. Xi Jinping's leadership has intensified this approach, as he perceives a strategic transition in U.S.-China relations necessitating a stronger nuclear stance. Historically, Chinese leaders have approached nuclear capabilities from a political perspective, viewing them as essential in establishing China's status and countering perceived U.S. hegemonic threats.
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