WAGD: What is Driving China’s Changing Nuclear Policy? with Tong Zhao
Oct 25, 2024
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Tong Zhao, a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, dives into the shifting landscape of China's nuclear policy. He explores how Xi Jinping’s leadership is reshaping nuclear strategy, blending traditional deterrence with newfound warfighting capabilities. The discussion reveals how U.S. military strategies influence China's nuclear perceptions, particularly regarding low-yield weapons. Zhao also addresses the interplay between U.S. nuclear policies and China's ambitions, emphasizing the importance of nuanced understanding in this evolving dynamic.
China's nuclear modernization is primarily driven by political motivations, reflecting a strategic posture rather than solely military needs.
There exists a significant gap between China's expanding nuclear capabilities and a coherent strategy for their operational use in conflicts.
Deep dives
The Political Drivers of China's Nuclear Policy
China's nuclear modernization is influenced more by political priorities than purely military technical concerns. While there is recognition of threats from U.S. missile defense systems, the contemporary scale and timing of China's nuclear buildup stem from high-level political decisions emphasizing nuclear weapons as tools of political posture rather than just military deterrents. Xi Jinping's leadership has intensified this approach, as he perceives a strategic transition in U.S.-China relations necessitating a stronger nuclear stance. Historically, Chinese leaders have approached nuclear capabilities from a political perspective, viewing them as essential in establishing China's status and countering perceived U.S. hegemonic threats.
Evolving Perceptions of Threat and Capability
The perceived shift in balance of power has altered China's approach to its nuclear capabilities, particularly regarding regional nuclear inferiority. Chinese experts forecasted potential negative relations with the U.S. well before recent escalations, and Xi's administration has chosen to invest in nuclear capability expansion to counter what they view as an aggressive U.S. nuclear strategy. This includes addressing gaps in theater-level nuclear capabilities, in contrast to the U.S. focus on low-yield tactical nuclear weapons. Thus, China's nuclear strategy increasingly reflects a mix of reactive measures aimed at compensating for perceived threats and political posturing on the global stage.
The Disconnect in Military Strategy and Capability
China faces a critical disconnect between its nuclear capabilities' expansion and the strategic concepts that will guide their use. While there is significant focus on developing advanced nuclear capabilities, there appears to be a lack of coherent doctrine on how those weapons would be utilized in a conflict scenario. The push to enhance military capabilities often lacks direction concerning specific strategic military needs, paralleling issues seen in the U.S. strategy. This scenario creates uncertainty, as China has yet to define operational doctrines for its growing arsenal, leaving room for potential influence on future decision-making from external entities.
As China continues to expand and modernize its nuclear arsenal and policy, the national security risk becomes central to the US-Chinese relationship. But how is China actually changing its nuclear policy? How does the Chinese political leadership see the purpose of a large nuclear arsenal? What threats are both China and the US perceiving? Tong Zhao joins Jon to discuss his recently published report on Chinese nuclear policy and break down all these topics and more. Listen here: