The DSR Network WAGD: What is Driving China’s Changing Nuclear Policy? with Tong Zhao
Oct 25, 2024
Tong Zhao, a Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, dives into the shifting landscape of China's nuclear policy. He explores how Xi Jinping’s leadership is reshaping nuclear strategy, blending traditional deterrence with newfound warfighting capabilities. The discussion reveals how U.S. military strategies influence China's nuclear perceptions, particularly regarding low-yield weapons. Zhao also addresses the interplay between U.S. nuclear policies and China's ambitions, emphasizing the importance of nuanced understanding in this evolving dynamic.
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Political Drivers of China's Nuclear Buildup
- China's nuclear buildup is driven more by political leadership and strategic signaling than by military-technical threats.
- Xi Jinping emphasizes nuclear weapons as political tools to counterbalance U.S. power and influence.
Tension Between Deterrence and Warfighting
- Xi Jinping promotes warfighting capability in China's nuclear forces without clear operational doctrines for nuclear use.
- This creates tension between traditional deterrence approaches and newer doctrines emphasizing readiness and victory.
China's Mirror Imaging of U.S. Strategy
- China mirrors U.S. power politics thinking, believing strength compels respect from the U.S.
- China's nuclear buildup reflects a negative action-reaction dynamic between the two powers.