GD POLITICS Crosstab Diving With Friends!
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Jun 5, 2025 Mary Radcliffe is a frequent guest known for her insights on voter behavior, while Lenny Bronner serves as a Senior Data Scientist at The Washington Post. They dive deep into the 2024 electoral data, exploring how demographics are shifting, particularly among Hispanic, Black, and younger voters leaning Republican. The conversation highlights the impact of Trump's influence on party identities and the evolving political landscape. Additionally, they analyze how events like the Great Recession have shaped millennial voting trends, reshaping strategies for future elections.
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Caution on Poll Crosstab Data
- Poll margins of error grow for subgroups, making individual poll crosstabs unreliable.
- Aggregated, validated data after elections provides a clearer view than individual polls.
Key Groups Swayed Election
- Hispanic, Black, and younger voters showed notable shifts toward Republicans in 2024.
- These shifts were crucial and likely decisive for the election outcome.
Latino Vote Shift Uncertain
- The large Latino voter shift to Republicans in 2024 might be issue-specific, especially immigration.
- It's too soon to determine if it's a long-term realignment or a temporary blip.