Switched On COP30 Countdown: Ambition, Politics, Reality
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Oct 30, 2025 Victoria Cuming, Head of Global Policy at BloombergNEF, and Brynne Mary Merkley, Energy Transitions Associate, delve into the critical countdown to COP30. They discuss how fewer than a third of countries have submitted their 2035 climate pledges and the implications of the U.S.'s withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. The conversation highlights China's new absolute emissions target and Brazil's push for a global carbon market. They also examine the balance of ambition versus reality, exploring the potential for COP30 to reignite climate action amidst geopolitical challenges.
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Paris Decade Stress Test
- COP30 marks 10 years since the Paris Agreement and tests whether the reporting-and-ratcheting cycle still drives ambition.
- Political shifts and US withdrawal have weakened peer pressure that historically raised pledge ambition.
How COPs Actually Work
- COPs are consensus-driven UN meetings where ~200 countries negotiate climate cooperation and rules.
- Decisions feed into national policies and can create direct impacts for companies and consumers.
Paris' Voluntary Ratchet Mechanism
- The Paris model relies on voluntary pledges and a five-year review (global stocktake) to ramp ambition.
- COP30 is the key test of whether that cycle still generates stronger national commitments.