AI apocalypticism vs. AI optimism (with Adam Russell)

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Aug 1, 2024

Adam Russell, Director of the AI Division at USC's Information Sciences Institute, shares insights into AI's future. He defines 'apocaloptimism,' highlighting the spectrum between fearful and hopeful perspectives on AI. The conversation dives into the interplay of quantitative and qualitative research, discussing its necessity for interpreting AI's societal impact. Russell emphasizes the importance of collective intelligence over individual IQ, advocating for cognitive diversity in decision-making processes to ensure ethical AI development and address societal challenges.

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INSIGHT

Apocaloptimism Defined

Apocaloptimism describes the simultaneous fear and excitement surrounding AI's potential.
It acknowledges both the utopian and dystopian possibilities, urging proactive engagement.

INSIGHT

No Neutral Ground

AI's transformative nature makes a neutral stance implausible, given its self-learning and decision-making capabilities.
This differs from previous technologies, demanding a proactive approach rather than passive observation.

INSIGHT

Categorizing AI Perspectives

Varying perspectives on AI exist, from apocalyptic views to techno-optimism and skepticism.
Some view AI as a tool with limited impact, while others focus on its potential to erode values.

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Sapiens

A Brief History of Humankind

Yuval Noah Harari

This book surveys the history of humankind from the Stone Age to the 21st century, focusing on Homo sapiens. It divides human history into four major parts: the Cognitive Revolution, the Agricultural Revolution, the Unification of Humankind, and the Scientific Revolution. Harari argues that Homo sapiens dominate the world due to their unique ability to cooperate in large numbers through beliefs in imagined realities such as gods, nations, money, and human rights. The book also examines the impact of human activities on the global ecosystem and speculates on the future of humanity, including the potential for genetic engineering and non-organic life.

Determined

A Science of Life without Free Will

Robert Sapolsky

A Theory of Everyone

The New Science of Who We Are, How We Got Here, and Where We’re Going

Michael Muthukrishna

In 'A Theory of Everyone,' Michael Muthukrishna presents a bold and original work that integrates research from across the sciences, humanities, and the field of cultural evolution. The book argues that human dominance is rooted in our unique ability to create and pass on culture—a shared body of knowledge, skills, and experiences. Muthukrishna proposes four 'laws of life'—energy, innovation, cooperation, and evolution—as essential for solving the practical and existential challenges facing humanity, such as polarization, inequality, productivity stagnation, and the energy crisis. The book is divided into two parts: the first explains 'who we are' and 'how we got here,' while the second explores practical policy solutions for our current predicament. Muthukrishna's approach is characterized by a scientific method, a wide range of academic research, and an engaging writing style that makes complex ideas accessible to readers[1][2][5].

Purity and Danger

Mary Douglas

In 'Purity and Danger', Mary Douglas examines how societies categorize and manage concepts of purity and pollution, arguing that these classifications serve to maintain social order and symbolic boundaries. The book is a seminal work in symbolic anthropology, offering insights into how different cultures perceive and manage 'dirt' as a matter out of place.

Read the full transcript here.

What is "apocaloptimism"? Is there a middle ground between apocalypticism and optimism? What are the various camps in the AI safety and ethics debates? What's the difference between "working on AI safety" and "building safe AIs"? Can our social and technological coordination problems be solved only by AI? What is "qualintative" research? What are some social science concepts that can aid in the development of safe and ethical AI? What should we do with things that don't fall neatly into our categories? How might we benefit by shifting our focus from individual intelligence to collective intelligence? What is cognitive diversity? What are "AI Now", "AI Next", and "AI in the Wild"?

Adam Russell is the Director of the AI Division at the University of Southern California's Information Sciences Institute (ISI). Prior to ISI, Adam was the Chief Scientist at the University of Maryland's Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security, or ARLIS, and was an adjunct professor at the University of Maryland's Department of Psychology. He was the Principal Investigator for standing up the INFER (Integrated Forecasting and Estimates of Risk) forecasting platform. Adam's almost 20-year career in applied research and national security has included serving as a Program Manager at the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA), then as a Program Manager at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) (where he was known as the DARPAnthropologist) and in May 2022 was appointed as the Acting Deputy Director to help stand up the Advanced Research Projects Agency for Health (ARPA-H). Adam has a BA in cultural anthropology from Duke University and a D.Phil. in social anthropology from Oxford University, where he was a Rhodes Scholar. He has also represented the United States in rugby at the international level, having played for the US national men's rugby team (the Eagles).

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Spencer Greenberg — Host / Director
Josh Castle — Producer
Ryan Kessler — Audio Engineer
Uri Bram — Factotum
WeAmplify — Transcriptionists

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