How Domestic Politics are Shaping US-China Relations
Jan 9, 2024
auto_awesome
The podcast explores how domestic politics in the US and China are shaping their bilateral relationship. It discusses the differences in domestic politics between the two countries and how they impact their relationship. The decline of certain political forces that historically promoted a better relationship is analyzed, along with the role of leadership in managing the US-China relationship.
Domestic politics in both the US and China have increasingly shaped the bilateral relationship, putting downward pressure on it.
Factors that historically promoted stability in US-China relations, such as pro-China business lobby and pro-trade members of Congress, have declined or become sources of instability.
Deep dives
The Influence of Domestic Politics
The report highlights the substantial changes in the nature and influence of domestic politics in both the United States and China over the past 50 years. Domestic politics now affect the roles of leaders, institutions, incentives, and perceptions in both countries, putting downward pressure on the US-China relationship. China's single-party Leninist political system focuses on leaders and interest groups, while the United States' domestic politics is influenced by Congress, interest groups, and electoral and bureaucratic politics.
Decline of Stability Factors
Historically, there were political forces that promoted stability in the US-China relationship, such as pro-China business lobby, pro-trade members of Congress, and top political leaders. However, these factors have declined or become sources of instability. Business lobby has become more ambivalent about trade, pro-trade members of Congress are fewer, and political leaders are often reluctant to spend the necessary political capital. Similarly, the priorities and incentives of Chinese leaders, such as growth and stability, have significantly changed under Xi Jinping's leadership.
Growing Influence of Domestic Politics
The report emphasizes that domestic political forces in both countries are increasingly shaping the bilateral relationship. Congressional activism, including legislation and oversight, has grown substantially, influencing US-China relations. Electoral politics in the United States has also seen a heightened focus on economic and national security threats from China. Additionally, Xi Jinping's personal views, centralization and politicization of decision-making processes, and priorities such as self-reliance and building a comprehensive national security state have negatively affected the US-China relationship. These domestic political forces are likely to continue to influence the relationship in the foreseeable future, making a reversal of the downward trend challenging.
This episode covers the role of US and Chinese domestic politics in the US-China relationship. There are many drivers of US-China strategic competition, and domestic politics is among them, and has become increasingly important, though it has not been well researched and analyzed in recent years. One reason for the lack of analysis on Chinese politics is that since Xi Jinping became China’s top leader in 2012, domestic politics in China has become even more of black box than previously.
Bonnie is joined by Dr. Evan Medeiros, who has recently published a pathbreaking study that seeks to update the understanding of political forces in China and the United States that are influencing the bilateral relationship. Medeiros is one of the world’s leading experts on Chinese foreign policy. He is the Penner Family Chair in Asia studies and the Cling Family Distinguished Fellow in US-China Studies in the School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University. The report we will discuss today is titled: "The New Domestic Politics of US-China Relations" and was published by the Asia Society Policy Institute’s Center for China Analysis where Evan is a senior fellow for foreign policy. During the Obama administration, Evan was on the NSC staff, first as director for China, Taiwan and Mongolia, and then as special assistant to the president and Senior Director for Asia.
Timestamps
[02:14] Influence of Domestic Politics in the US and China
[03:32] Differences between US and Chinese Domestic Politics
[05:19] Weakening of Historical Forces for Stability
[08:35] Most Important Driver of Change to America’s China Policy
[13:34] Xi Jinping Shaping Domestic Politics in China
[19:38] Reversing the Downward Trend in US-China Relations
[21:44] Close Connections between Domestic and Foreign Politics
[24:49] Biden and Xi as Leaders in the Bilateral Relationship
Get the Snipd podcast app
Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode
Save any moment
Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways
Share & Export
Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more
AI-powered podcast player
Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features
Discover highlights
Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode