The Risk Takers Podcast Sports Betting Simulations, CNN Gambling Doc & TSwift Engagement Insider Trading | Ep 118
Aug 27, 2025
Explore the fascinating world of sports betting simulations, where understanding complex data can lead to big wins. The hosts break down how to effectively use simulations versus traditional models, especially in sports like golf. Dive into a critical discussion about a CNN documentary's take on gambling addiction and the industry's messaging issues. They also touch on using stable coins in betting markets and the exciting differences between college football and the NFL. Get ready for insightful Q&A with practical betting strategies!
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Episode notes
Simulations Replace Complex Math
- Simulations let you skip complex math by sampling outcomes directly with Monte Carlo methods.
- John Shilling says Monte Carlo plus basic distributions are foundational and broadly useful for sports betting.
Golf Sim: Hole‑By‑Hole Tournament Sims
- SportsProjections describes simulating golf hole-by-hole, sampling scores and applying cut rules across many tournament sims.
- He counts outcomes millions of times to get make-cut and win probabilities for each golfer.
Top‑Down Vs Bottom‑Up Tradeoffs
- Choose top-down sims when path-dependence and compounding errors make bottom-up models fragile.
- John recommends hybrid or higher-level sims unless you can fully dial detailed dependencies.
