ChinaTalk Military Revolutions with Ed Luttwak
Edward Luttwak, renowned strategist and historian who advised governments and wrote Coup d'État and The Rise of China Versus the Logic of Strategy, discusses technological step-changes in warfare. He traces formative wartime influences, classical books that shaped his thinking, deterrence psychology toward Iran and China, and contrasts strengths of democracies versus autocracies.
02:51:20
Cosmopolitan Childhood Shaped A Strategist
- Edward Luttwak describes growing up in multinational Banat and Palermo which exposed him to many cultures and languages.
- That accidental cosmopolitan childhood shaped his lifelong study of war and strategy.
Hired On A Plane, Wrote A Coup Handbook
- Luttwak recounts being hired mid-flight as an oil consultant advising companies on Middle East coups.
- Those interviews with exiled coup plotters became the basis for his practical handbook on coups.
Volunteer Combat Shaped Realities
- Luttwak served as a volunteer in the 1967 Six-Day War and later in 1973, observing frontline dynamics without being in the first echelon.
- Those combat experiences corrected some of his preconceptions about bravery and battlefield realities.
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Intro
00:00 • 1min
Luttwak’s multicultural childhood and early influences
01:13 • 3min
Family survival in World War II and Jewish leadership
03:52 • 1min
Palermo years: language, Latin, and the cadet corps
05:19 • 3min
Refugee professors and athletic Jewish schooling
08:29 • 1min
Attitudes to the Holocaust and forward-looking survival
09:41 • 5min
Why Luttwak studied war and technology
14:33 • 8min
Churchill as innovator in military technology
22:21 • 3min
From oil consultant to writing Coup d'État handbook
25:04 • 4min
Combat experiences: Israel 1967 and 1973
29:32 • 9min
How technology reshaped warfare historically
38:25 • 4min
Books that illuminate war: Graves, Iliad, and bombing history
42:43 • 6min
Clausewitz, mountain warfare, and levels of war
49:03 • 3min
Ukraine, Gerasimov, and modern operational failures
52:12 • 3min
Surprise, reserves, and volunteer armies
55:33 • 5min
Strategic bombing: action, reaction, and paradoxes
01:00:44 • 3min
The Iliad’s lessons on bravery and human dignity
01:04:01 • 3min
China’s interest in Western classics and Luttwak’s reception
01:07:14 • 13min
Removing war from Europe: consequences for demographics
01:19:47 • 4min
Capax belli: which countries remain war-capable
01:23:49 • 3min
Germany 1890 and the dangers of challenging naval status quo
01:27:04 • 18min
Deterrence basics: deterrence exists in the enemy's mind
01:45:13 • 1min
Deterring Iran and cultural logic
01:46:39 • 8min
Deterring China: autocracy, Xi, and individual decision-making
01:55:08 • 12min
Strengths of democracies versus autocracies
02:07:00 • 3min
Regret and hypothetical careers in military intelligence
02:09:31 • 5min
Historical analogies for modern leaders
02:14:48 • 17min
Recommended readings: Clausewitz, Tacitus, Thucydides
02:31:29 • 5min
AI, satellites, and technology shaping future warfare
02:36:37 • 7min
Personal reflections: Judaism and collective promise
02:43:25 • 8min
Outro
02:51:01 • 3sec
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The Iliad
Homer
The Iliad is an epic poem attributed to Homer, set during the Trojan War. It begins in the ninth year of the war, where a quarrel between King Agamemnon and the warrior Achilles sets off a chain of events.
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Today’s guest is the legendary strategist Edward Luttwak — the Machiavelli of Maryland. He’s consulted for presidents, prime ministers, and secretaries of defense, and authored magnificent books on Byzantine history, a guide to planning a successful coup, and an opus on the logic of strategy and the rise of China. He raises cows, too.
We recorded this episode in Feb of 2024.
Thanks to the Hudson Institute for sponsoring this episode.
Our conversation today covers…
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Luttwak’s childhood and formative encounters with war, including an early fascination with the mafia in Sicily,
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Technological step-changes in warfare,
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Books that shaped Luttwak’s view of war, from Clausewitz to the Iliad,
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The costs of “removing war from Europe” post-1945,
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China’s strategic missteps,
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The psychology of deterrence, including what kind of Middle East policy would actually deter Iran,
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The strengths of democracies vs. autocracies.
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