Logan Mohtashami on housing stress and mortgage rates
Nov 18, 2024
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Logan Mohtashami, Lead Analyst at HousingWire, shares his expertise on housing credit and mortgage rates. He dispels myths about imminent housing crashes by discussing positive credit reports. The conversation highlights the resilience of the housing market amid rising debt. Mohtashami compares market dynamics in Florida and Texas, focusing on inventory and migration patterns. He also analyzes the impact of high mortgage rates and Federal Reserve policies, emphasizing their influence on future housing trends and economic stability.
Recent housing credit data indicates a stabilizing market, debunking fears of a housing crash similar to 2008.
Regional variations in markets like Florida and Texas highlight localized economic challenges affecting housing affordability and inventory levels.
Deep dives
Understanding Housing Credit and Stress
Recent data on housing credit indicates a significant difference from the 2008 financial crisis, debunking myths propagated over the years about an impending crash. New listings of homes have dropped to historically low levels, suggesting that homeowners are more stable, contrary to earlier predictions of a mass sell-off. As the mortgage market continues to evolve, the resilience of American homeowners has become evident, as they typically do not act impulsively in housing decisions. This suggests that the stress observed in credit card balances and other financial metrics may not directly affect housing stability as previously believed.
FICO Scores and Delinquency Rates
The analysis of FICO scores indicates a continuous improvement over the past 14 years, contradicting claims of score inflation affecting the housing market. Most borrowers have entered the market with solid credit, which, when coupled with fixed low mortgage rates, supports a healthy debt load. Delinquencies have not approached pre-COVID levels, remaining well below the historical averages seen during past economic downturns. This positive trajectory of credit health signifies that the underlying factors contributing to housing distress are currently not present.
Market Dynamics in Florida and Texas
Specific regions like Florida and Texas are experiencing unique market dynamics that impact housing affordability and inventory levels. In Texas, the lack of migration combined with rising property taxes presents challenges, while in Florida, insurance costs are creating additional stress for homeowners. Although the overall market is not under significant distress, the dynamics in these states reflect how localized economic factors can influence the housing landscape. Without strong migration patterns to bolster demand, areas facing these affordability challenges may see stagnant or declining listings.
On today’s episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami about the very positive housing credit report and where mortgage rates are headed.
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