In Good Company with Nicolai Tangen HIGHLIGHTS: Sir David Spiegelhalter
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Sep 5, 2025 
Sir David Spiegelhalter, a renowned statistician and expert in communicating risk, discusses our complex relationship with uncertainty. He explores why people fear the unknown and the value of statistics in decision-making. The importance of clear communication during crises like COVID-19 is emphasized, highlighting the five FICON rules. He also shares insights on interpreting cancer survival probabilities and the emotional impact they have on patients. The conversation blends numbers with human experiences, offering a fresh perspective on navigating an unpredictable world.
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Living With Uncertainty
- People must learn to live with uncertainty because many outcomes are inherently unknown rather than simply risky.
- Imagining a life without uncertainty is unrealistic and many find some unpredictability valuable.
Evidence Underpins Credible Public Discourse
- Public discourse without evidence leads to dangerous policy and misinformation.
- Spiegelhalter warns that ignoring numbers and evidence — amplified by social media and conspiracies — is deeply harmful.
Prioritize Data And Clear Communication
- Prioritize high-quality data collection and clear communication, especially during crises.
- Use transparent, unbiased explanations of numbers rather than prescribing policies.