Elections, global threats and happy hour with the Riskgaming team
Nov 18, 2024
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Join Laurence Pevsner, Lux’s Riskgaming director of programming with expertise in AI and election security, and Michael Magnani, a multifaceted researcher and columnist. They dive into the ramifications of AI deepfakes on U.S. elections and reveal the pressing global threats often overlooked. The discussion traverses Germany's industrial economy, the trajectory of the Ukraine war, and trade tensions with China. They also highlight the critical issues surrounding food security that demand urgent attention on the world stage.
The podcast emphasizes the critical role of the upcoming 2024 elections in shaping global democracy and international political landscapes.
Discussion reveals how AI technologies, such as deep fakes, pose significant threats to election integrity and voter engagement worldwide.
The conversation highlights overlooked risks like food security and decentralized finance, stressing their importance in an ever-evolving global threat environment.
Deep dives
Year of Democracy and Global Elections
The episode emphasizes the significance of 2024 as a pivotal year for democracy, with a majority of humanity participating in elections. Various nations have undergone democratic processes, and while Canada and Germany are mentioned, the focus remains on the diversity of global political climates. The discussions highlight the evolving nature of voter engagement and the varying impacts of elections across the globe. This leads to an examination of the interconnectedness of international politics and how these elections shape geopolitical landscapes.
Insights from AI and Election Security Scenarios
The team reflects on their recent risk gaming scenarios centered on deep fakes and election security, particularly focusing on how AI could influence democratic processes. Michael shares his firsthand experience during the scenario simulations, revealing a stark contrast between the engagements in New York and Washington, D.C. Notably, in New York, participants showed a collaborative spirit, while in D.C., many focused on their personal agendas, indicating a disconnect in sharing crucial information. This underscores the importance of collaboration in addressing threats to democracy.
Analyzing Election Threats and Outcomes
The podcast analyzes the threats to the recent U.S. elections, highlighting the confirmed cases of Russian interference, including false bomb threats aimed at polling stations. They discuss the validity of various hypotheses around foreign involvement in election manipulation, including deep fakes and misinformation campaigns. Although predictions for external influence were broadly outlined, the specifics of which countries were involved received scrutiny, especially regarding Iran, North Korea, and China. Overall, the conversation embodies the significant implications of international relations on election integrity and public trust.
Rising Tensions and Future Risks in International Relations
Discourse shifts to the future implications of the U.S. foreign policy landscape, especially under a new administration with Trump returning to power. Predictions revolve around potential trade wars with allies and how these dynamics will serve as a litmus test for U.S. international engagement. Key issues include managing relationships with European partners amid ongoing crises such as the war in Ukraine. The team emphasizes the need for a coherent foreign policy strategy to bolster America's standing while addressing the burgeoning threats posed by authoritarian regimes.
Emerging Risks: Food Security and Decentralized Finance
The discussion touches on overlooked risks like food security and decentralized finance within the broader context of global threats. Lawrence warns of a potential food security crisis stemming from climate change and geopolitical instability, stressing that its significance may be understated. Meanwhile, the rise of decentralized finance is framed as a dual-edged sword where cryptocurrency's initial promise of transparency clashes with its current use in illicit activities, particularly state-sponsored disruptions. These evolving dimensions highlight the necessity for vigilance and adaptability in an increasingly complex international threat environment.
It’s not every day that we can get our distributed Riskgaming team into one podcast studio, but we actually managed to do it from our NYC base, and with some drinks to boot. Joining host Danny Crichton is Lux’s Riskgaming director of programming Laurence Pevsner and our researcher, part-time columnist and all around utility handyman Michael Magnani.
We talk about the U.S. presidential election and which threats from our AI deepfake election security scenario DeepFaked and DeepSixed actually took place — and which didn’t. We then cover Germany’s sputtering industrial economy, the future of the war in Ukraine and trade tensions with China. Finally, we close out with a discussion of the three threats that the world isn’t thinking about today, and what should be done about them.
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