Episode 542: Promises and Peace: Can Security Guarantees End the War in Ukraine?

Today, Morgan, Les, Jamil, and Algene discuss the United States’ announcement that it would provide security guarantees to Ukraine as part of a potential peace settlement with Russia. The move follows discussions in Paris between U.S. and European partners, outlining a proposed security architecture for Ukraine and “legally binding” commitments meant to support a postwar order. U.S. Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner have both indicated President Trump’s backing, and Ukrainian officials say roughly 90 percent of a peace framework is agreed—though major territorial questions remain unresolved.

What do security guarantees actually mean in practice, and do they bring Ukraine any closer to a durable peace? Are these commitments meaningful deterrents, or largely symbolic without clear enforcement mechanisms? And with Russia showing no willingness to accept a ceasefire—or the presence of Western peacekeepers—what happens if Moscow simply ignores the framework altogether? 

Check out the sources that helped shape our Fellows’ discussion: 

@morganlroach

@lestermunson

@jamil_n_jaffer

@algenesajery

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