Fault Lines

Today, Jess, Les, Andrew, and Joshua take a step back from the headlines for a Fun Friday roundtable on the best and worst American foreign policy decisions, inspired by a recent Council on Foreign Relations article drawing on conversations with the Society for Historians of American Foreign Relations. From the Marshall Plan and Bretton Woods to PEPFAR and the peaceful end of the Cold War in Europe, the team reflects on moments when U.S. leadership, economic power, and long-term thinking paid real dividends.What separates foreign policy successes from failures? Why do some hard-power decisions look effective at first but unravel over time? And as the U.S. looks ahead, what should decision-makers keep firmly in mind before reaching for any one instrument of power?Check out the article that helped shape our Fellows’ discussion: https://www.cfr.org/ten-best-ten-worst-us-foreign-policy-decisions/?utm_source=newsrelease&utm_campaign=best-worst-2026&utm_medium=email&utm_term=PressCFR%20-%20Including%20Members%20and%20Staff @NotTVJessJones@lestermunson@AndrewBorene@joshuachuminskiLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/FR_W1-fpr5o Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Jamil, Morgan, and Andy revisit Iran as protests continue to escalate and the reported death toll climbs into the thousands. President Trump was briefed this week on response options and has publicly signaled support for demonstrators, saying that “help is on the way.” What does meaningful support for Iranian protesters actually look like? Should the United States openly back regime change—and if so, how, given limited military presence and a fractured opposition? Are covert action, cyber operations, and coordination with regional partners more realistic tools than overt force? And as Trump isolates Iran economically and diplomatically, is this the beginning of a pressure campaign that could genuinely tip the balance, or another moment of outrage without follow-through?@lestermunson@jamil_n_jaffer@morganlroach@andykeiserLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/bVOL-Ec7zB0 Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Les, Jamil, Morgan, and Jess discuss escalating protests across Iran, where economic collapse and political repression are driving nationwide unrest. Demonstrations that began with small business owners have spread to major cities, prompting a violent crackdown by security forces and an internet shutdown. As the regime insists the situation is under control, President Trump has warned publicly that continued mass killings could trigger U.S. action, while Iranian officials have quietly floated the possibility of renewed nuclear talks.Is this protest movement meaningfully different from past uprisings that fizzled under pressure? Has the regime been weakened enough, internally and externally, for unrest to threaten its hold on power? And with Iran’s opposition fractured and no clear alternative government waiting in the wings, what leverage does the United States actually have if it wants to support change without creating a far more dangerous vacuum?@lestermunson@jamil_n_jaffer@morganlroach@NotTVJessJonesLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/wS56YpITIdI Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Jess, Les, Morgan, and Matthew discuss why Greenland has suddenly become a focal point of U.S. foreign policy. President Trump has reignited debate by publicly suggesting the United States should own Greenland, escalating rhetoric well beyond existing basing rights under the 1951 agreement with Denmark. While administration officials have walked back any suggestion of force, Greenlandic leaders have rejected the idea outright—even as the island’s strategic importance grows amid heightened Arctic competition involving Russia and China.What national security concerns is the administration trying to address with its approach to Greenland? Is the focus on Greenland driven by concerns over Russian and Chinese military activity, access to critical minerals, missile overflight risks, or all of the above? And while the U.S. case for Greenland’s strategic importance is clear, does the administration’s approach risk alienating Denmark and other NATO allies — and if so, at what cost to Arctic cooperation?@morganlroach@lestermunson@NotTVJessJonesLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/65o2FCiBrjw Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today, Morgan, Les, Jamil, and Algene discuss the United States’ announcement that it would provide security guarantees to Ukraine as part of a potential peace settlement with Russia. The move follows discussions in Paris between U.S. and European partners, outlining a proposed security architecture for Ukraine and “legally binding” commitments meant to support a postwar order. U.S. Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner have both indicated President Trump’s backing, and Ukrainian officials say roughly 90 percent of a peace framework is agreed—though major territorial questions remain unresolved.What do security guarantees actually mean in practice, and do they bring Ukraine any closer to a durable peace? Are these commitments meaningful deterrents, or largely symbolic without clear enforcement mechanisms? And with Russia showing no willingness to accept a ceasefire—or the presence of Western peacekeepers—what happens if Moscow simply ignores the framework altogether? Check out the sources that helped shape our Fellows’ discussion: @morganlroach@lestermunson@jamil_n_jaffer@algenesajeryLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Episode 541: Operation Maximum Resolve - Regime Tailoring?Today, Les, Morgan, Jess, and Matthew discuss the U.S. operation in Venezuela over the weekend that extracted President Nicolás Maduro and his wife and brought them to New York to face drug trafficking charges. While the Trump administration says no U.S. troops are currently on the ground and denies plans to run Venezuela’s day-to-day affairs, the operation follows months of apparent intelligence and military preparation and coincides with a significant U.S. naval presence offshore. Former Vice President Delcy Rodríguez has been sworn in as interim president, setting the stage for a highly uncertain next phase inside the country.Is this regime change—or a more limited leadership removal designed to avoid the mistakes of past U.S. interventions? Does extracting a single leader offer a cheaper, more effective alternative to invasion and occupation, or does it raise serious questions about sovereignty and international law? And can the United States translate a stunning military and intelligence success into lasting deterrence, democratic opportunity, and a rollback of Russian and Chinese influence in the Western Hemisphere?@lestermunson@morganlroach@nottvjessjonesLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/OEyq3qnwbyo  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Episode 540: The Holiday Special - Unwrapping 2025Today, Jessica, Jamil, Morgan, Lester, Les, Lipsey, Matthew, and Marc take stock of a consequential year in U.S. national security. From President Trump’s push to brand himself as a “peace president”—highlighted by multiple diplomatic agreements and the Gaza peace plan—to moments of hard power, including U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear program, 2025 defied easy labels. The team reflects on undercovered but significant developments as well: the dismantling of the U.S. foreign assistance architecture, growing concern over advanced technology transfers to China, sweeping changes to the federal workforce through DOGE, and a renewed focus on the Western Hemisphere, particularly Venezuela and Haiti.Looking ahead to 2026, what will ultimately shape U.S. national security: the trajectory of Ukraine, a recalibration of China policy, or the domestic pressures of a midterm election year? Are tariffs becoming a permanent tool of U.S. leverage or a temporary negotiating tactic? And as the administration continues to reshape how American power is exercised, which lessons from 2025 will matter most?@jamil_n_jaffer@nottvjessjones@lestermunson@WashingtonFlack@morganlroachLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Episode 539: Live from RNDF: Ambassador YuiAs part of our crossover series of Fault Lines and CTRL+F, “Modern Deterrence: Allies, Innovation, and the Future of Defense,” recorded live at the Reagan National Defense Forum, Jess and Jamil sit down with Ambassador Yui, Taiwan’s Representative to the United States. With more than 35 years of diplomatic experience—including senior leadership roles in Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and postings across Europe, Latin America, and the U.S.—Ambassador Yui offers a uniquely informed view of the shifting security landscape in the Indo-Pacific and Taiwan’s evolving role within it.How does Taiwan assess the current deterrence environment amid intensifying PLA activity and hybrid pressure from Beijing? Where are the biggest opportunities, and remaining obstacles, in United States–Taiwan defense, economic, and technological partnership? And as Taiwan advances major modernization efforts, from asymmetric defense to cyber resilience and semiconductor security, what should Washington understand about the capabilities, priorities, and challenges shaping Taiwan’s strategic future?@jamil_n_jaffer@nottvjessjonesLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter! Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As part of our crossover series of Fault Lines and CTRL+F, “Modern Deterrence: Allies, Innovation, and the Future of Defense,” recorded live at the Reagan National Defense Forum, Jess and Jamil sit down with Washington Harbour Partners Founder and Chief Investment Officer Mina Faltas - with a surprise appearance from NSI Advisory Board Member and Silverado Policy Accelerator co-founder Dmitri Alperovitch. Together, they explore how private capital, technological innovation, and strategic competition are reshaping the future of American and allied deterrence. How are investors evaluating risk in an era defined by U.S.–China rivalry, hybrid conflict, and accelerating breakthroughs in technology? What role should private capital play in national security, and where is the market still mispricing geopolitical and regulatory risk? And as cyber and space become more central to modern conflict, how can the U.S. and its allies strengthen resilience and build the next generation of deterrence?@NotTVJessJones@jamil_n_jafferLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/pPe4xGxqF2w Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

As part of our crossover series of Fault Lines and CTRL+F, “Modern Deterrence: Allies, Innovation, and the Future of Defense,” recorded live at the Reagan National Defense Forum, Jamil and Jess sit down with Congressman Don Bacon, retired Air Force Brigadier General and chair of the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Cyber, Information Technologies, and Innovation. How should Congress prioritize modernization as China, Russia, and other adversaries accelerate their investment in emerging technologies? What lessons from Ukraine should shape U.S. doctrine, acquisitions, and alliance cooperation? And how should the U.S. think about offensive cyber, AI-enabled capabilities, and the future of deterrence in a rapidly evolving threat landscape?@jamil_n_jaffer@morganlroachLike what we're doing here? Be sure to rate, review, and subscribe. And don't forget to follow @faultlines_pod and @masonnatsec on Twitter!We are also on YouTube, and watch today's episode here: https://youtu.be/eU3qAdj1P6M  Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.