Systems Dynamics: Moving Beyond Supply Chain Optimization with scmBLOX's J. Chris White

J. Chris White, Co-Founder and CEO of scmBLOX, joined host Jamie Flinchbaugh to explore the critical differences between systems thinking and systems dynamics, and how these approaches can transform supply chain management. As a systems dynamics modeler with 30 years of experience covering operations and supply chains, Chris brought deep expertise to this conversation about solving complex business problems.

Chris explained that while many people embrace systems thinking after reading Peter Senge's "The Fifth Discipline," they often miss that Senge was actually a systems dynamicist trained by Jay Forrester, who created systems dynamics. According to Chris, systems thinking provides valuable guidance, but when it comes to actually solving problems, you need the rigor of systems dynamics modeling and simulation. He described systems thinking as appreciating the use of data in decision making, while systems dynamics is doing all the math to generate that data.

The conversation revealed how he views systems dynamics as another tool in the problem-solving toolbox. He emphasized that it works best for larger, interconnected problems where you need to see the whole system view. He explained that systems are collections of parts that are interrelated and interconnected, all working together to achieve a goal. As systems become more complex, the relationships between parts begin to dominate, which is where systems dynamics shines.

When discussing supply chain management specifically, Chris highlighted how traditional "end-to-end" approaches are actually quite limited. Most companies only track orders from their immediate suppliers to customer delivery, but he pointed out that COVID-19 revealed how interconnected supply chains really are. The disruptions, bullwhip effects, and shortages that dominated news cycles showed that problems happening several tiers upstream can significantly impact your business.

Chris used a tree analogy to illustrate this point: there's little value in optimizing the leaves when you should have been on a different branch strategically to begin with. He emphasized that resilience is more of a system phenomenon than an individual company trait, and that understanding supply chains as systems gives you more power to change the future.

One of the biggest surprises he encounters when working with clients is how little data they actually need to get started. Unlike statistical models that rely heavily on data, systems dynamics focuses on causal connections and structure. He explained that if you know what you're making and have a bill of materials, your supply chain usually mirrors that structure. This allows companies to begin modeling without perfect visibility into every supplier's capacity or inventory levels.

Chris emphasized that when companies optimize only their individual parts of the supply chain, they often create unintended effects that come back to hurt them later. What seems beneficial in the short term can actually cause problems in the long term. The goal is to help companies understand how their decisions impact the entire supply chain system, not just their immediate operations.

Throughout the discussion, Chris demonstrated how systems dynamics provides a scientific approach to understanding supply chain vulnerabilities before disruptions occur, whether they're global events like the Suez Canal blockage or local issues like supplier bankruptcies.

To learn more about Chris White's work in systems dynamics and supply chain management, visit scmblox.com or connect with him on LinkedIn.