China’s third attempt to internationalise its currency
Jan 17, 2024
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The podcast discusses China's latest attempt to internationalize its currency, the RMB. They explore China's previous attempts, its current approach, and the potential implications. The experts also discuss the impact on the euro compared to the dollar and the potential fragmentation of the global financial system. Strategies to strengthen the euro and the rise of the RMB are also explored.
China's second attempt to internationalize the RMB through digitalization faced challenges in gaining widespread adoption, particularly in cross-border use.
The third attempt to internationalize the RMB is characterized by institutional mechanisms such as inclusion in the IMF's special drawing rights basket and bilateral swap lines, which have facilitated a rise in RMB demand among countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative and facing sanctions.
Deep dives
Overview of China's push to internationalize the RMB
In this podcast episode, Alicia Gasia Herrera and Alicia Migni discuss their paper on China's efforts to internationalize the RMB. They highlight the increase in the use of RMB in international transactions since 2022, especially due to the Ucarin War and sanctions on US dollar transactions. They compare this recent push to previous attempts and examine the institutional and demand factors driving RMB usage outside of China. The title "Third Time Lucky" refers to the potential success of this latest attempt to internationalize the RMB.
First and second attempts to internationalize the RMB
The first attempt to internationalize the RMB involved creating an offshore market in Hong Kong to support the non-convertible currency. However, this attempt failed due to the lack of RMB products and assets in the offshore market. The collapse of this initiative started in 2015 when the RMB's value stopped increasing. The second attempt focused on digitalizing the RMB, but it was delayed due to COVID-19. While not considered a failure, it has faced challenges in gaining widespread adoption, particularly in cross-border use.
Third attempt: Institutional triggers and impact
The third attempt to internationalize the RMB is characterized by two important institutional mechanisms: the inclusion of the RMB in the IMF's special drawing rights basket and bilateral swap lines between central banks. These mechanisms have facilitated a rise in demand for RMB outside of China, particularly among countries participating in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and those facing sanctions. However, the impact on the global financial system is still limited, with RMB usage accounting for less than 3% of total global transactions.
In this episode of The Sound of Economics, Yuyun Zhan invites Alessia Amighini and Alicia García-Herrero to discuss China’s latest push to internationalise its currency, the Renminbi. They talk about China’s previous two attempts, its approach to internationalise the RMB this time around and the wider implications of a strengthened RMB. This might prompt other countries to try and strengthen their own currencies, which could lead to a more fragmented financial system. Our experts discuss how the euro, compared to the dollar, might be more affected by this.
This episode is part of the ZhōngHuá Mundus series of The Sound of Economics. ZhōngHuá Mundus is a newsletter by Bruegel, bringing you monthly analysis of China in the world, as seen from Europe. Sign up now to receive it in your mailbox!
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