202: Predicting the Impact of Competitive Entrants With Synthetic Controls with Evan Wimpey of Elder Research
Aug 14, 2024
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In this conversation, guest Evan Wimpey, a data professional from Elder Research and a Marine Corps veteran, dives into the fascinating world of synthetic controls. He explains how these models measure the impact of new market entrants, blending quantitative data with qualitative insights. Evan also discusses the importance of cohesive analytics teams and the role of humor in data storytelling, sharing his journey from pursuing a master's in analytics to crafting award-winning jokes. It's a delightful mix of data science and comedy!
Evan Wimpy highlights the importance of synthetic controls for estimating intervention impacts when traditional control groups are unavailable, aiding informed decision-making.
He creatively integrates humor into data analytics, using comedy to make complex statistical concepts accessible and engaging for broader audiences.
Deep dives
Evan Wimpi's Background and Expertise
Evan Wimpi, a director of analytics at Elder Research, has extensive experience in data science and analytics consulting. With two master’s degrees—one in applied economics and the other in analytics—he has built a career that spans financial analytics in the Marine Corps to consulting for corporate clients. Wimpi emphasizes the need for humor in the analytics field, often infusing his role with data comedy to engage his team and make complex topics more approachable. His journey illustrates the diverse paths one can take within the data science profession.
Understanding Synthetic Controls
Synthetic controls provide a method for estimating the effect of an intervention when a traditional control group is not available. For example, if a new gas station opens next to an existing one, it is difficult to quantify the impact on sales without having a comparable location that did not face the same change. By using data from numerous similar gas stations, analysts can create a 'synthetic' version of the competitor to understand potential sales impacts. This methodology helps businesses make informed decisions when facing competitive threats.
Model Performance and Quality Assurance
Model validation is critical in ensuring that predictive analytics provide reliable insights, especially in industries heavily reliant on data-driven decision-making. It is essential for organizations to understand the accuracy and generalizability of their models, which can sometimes be overlooked due to the excitement surrounding flashy new technologies. Many businesses often rush into using complex models without proper validation, leading to poor decision-making based on flawed assumptions. Consulting firms like Elder Research aid in the evaluation and improvement of existing models, helping clients build solid foundations for their analytics work.
The Intersection of Data Science and Humor
Evan Wimpi has successfully merged his passion for data science with comedy, using humor to enhance engagement in the analytics community. As an award-winning data comedian, he utilizes humor to make statistical concepts more relatable and enjoyable, thereby overcoming the sometimes dry nature of the field. His journey into data comedy began during the pandemic and has led to a published book filled with statistics-related jokes. By redefining how data professionals communicate, Wimpi demonstrates the value of creativity and humor in making technical subjects accessible to wider audiences.
Evan's Educational Journey and Marine Corps Experience (2:54)
Joining Elder Research (4:38)
Synthetic Controls Explained (6:54)
Measuring Impact with Synthetic Controls (9:05)
Building the Control Group (12:54)
Qualitative Context in Data Analysis (14:50)
Final Steps with Synthetic Controls (16:29)
Client Analytics Maturity (18:56)
Outsourcing Decisions in Analytics (21:09)
Cohesion Between Analytics Teams (24:18)
Validation of Predictive Models (26:37)
Confidence in Marketing Predictions (29:01)
Setting Expectations for Data Science (36:09)
Evan's Background in Data Comedy (39:44)
The Journey to Award-Winning Jokes (41:29)
Creating New Jokes (46:22)
Get the Joke Book and Final Thoughts in the Episode (48:46)
The Data Stack Show is a weekly podcast powered by RudderStack, the CDP for developers. Each week we’ll talk to data engineers, analysts, and data scientists about their experience around building and maintaining data infrastructure, delivering data and data products, and driving better outcomes across their businesses with data.
RudderStack helps businesses make the most out of their customer data while ensuring data privacy and security. To learn more about RudderStack visit rudderstack.com.
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