The Intelligence from The Economist Poll vaulter: Brazil’s surprise election result
Oct 3, 2022
Sarah Maslin, Brazil correspondent for The Economist, and Jonathan Rosenthal, Africa editor for the publication, dive into Brazil's electoral landscape and Malawi's political evolution. They discuss how Jair Bolsonaro's unexpected performance in the presidential race has intensified the country's division ahead of a runoff. Meanwhile, Malawi’s struggle for democracy reveals economic hurdles and the fight against corruption. The conversation also touches on military developments in Ukraine, highlighting the strategic significance of captured equipment.
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Bolsonaro's Unexpected Strength
- Jair Bolsonaro performed better than predicted in Brazil's election, getting 43% of the vote.
- This sets up a tight runoff against Lula da Silva, who received 48%, on October 30th.
Hidden Bolsonaro Vote
- Bolsonaro's stronger-than-expected performance may be due to a "hidden vote" among his supporters.
- These voters might distrust pollsters or be underrepresented in traditional polling methods.
Bolsonaro's Geographic Strength
- Bolsonaro surprisingly won in Sao Paulo, Brazil's most populous state.
- Many of his allies also secured congressional seats, indicating broader support than anticipated.