Logan Mohtashami: Will spring housing demand pick up with mortgage rates this high?
Jan 25, 2024
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Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami analyzes housing data and trends, including the positive trend observed in the housing market despite high mortgage rates. He discusses the impact of mortgage rates on the market and the concern of becoming less dovish in the economic cycle. The episode also explores topics such as the Silver Tsunami, Wall Street, and the Federal Reserve's changing approach. Additionally, they delve into the inflationary impact of war and supply chain disruptions and highlight the likelihood of the core personal consumption expenditures rate falling below two percent in the near future.
Positive trend in purchase applications and new listings indicates a good sign for the housing market.
Mortgage rates have had a minimal impact on housing demand while rising inventory leads to higher home prices.
Deep dives
Housing Data for Spring Home Buying Season
The lead analyst, Logan Modashami, discusses the housing data to watch for the spring home buying season. The year-over-year data on purchase applications is still negative, but overall, everything looks fine and normal. The tracker article purchase application data indicates positive trends, and new listings data is growing year over year. While the housing market is not experiencing spectacular growth, the positive trend in the past eight weeks is a good sign. However, it is important to note that this positive trend is happening from historically low levels of demand.
The Impact of Mortgage Rates and Inventory
Logan emphasizes the significance of mortgage rates and inventory in relation to housing demand and home prices. While mortgage rates have inched up slightly in recent weeks, the demand data line has not been affected significantly. The rate of change in the purchase application data, when working from a lower bar, doesn't show the same impact as in previous years. Additionally, as inventory increases, the price cut percentage falls, indicating rising home prices. However, it is essential to consider the context of historically low levels of demand in the housing market.
The Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy
Logan addresses questions about the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and their approach to inflation and interest rates. He highlights the Fed's initial plan to control inflation by potentially causing a labor market collapse. However, due to pandemic-related factors, inflation decreased naturally, leading to a less hawkish stance from the Fed. Logan suggests that the Fed should consider cutting rates by 75 basis points, given the improved economic data and the need to maintain a stable labor market and capital investment. He also emphasizes the importance of reading the rate of change data and understanding the impact of global pandemics and war on inflation rates.
On today’s episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami about the data he’s watching for the spring home-buying season and what housing demand and home prices look like.
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