Episode 692: Russia in Year Three of the War, with Dr. Dmitry Gorenburg

In a news cycle dominated by the attempted assassination of former President Trump, give yourself a break with an update on the Russian military in year three of the Russo-Ukrainian War, with regular Midrats guest Dr. Dmitry Gorenburg.

Dmitry Gorenburg is Senior Research Scientist in the Strategy, Policy, Plans, and Programs division of CNA, where he has worked since 2000. Dr. Gorenburg is an associate at the Harvard University Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies and previously served as Executive Director of the American Association of the Advancement of Slavic Studies (AAASS). His research interests include security issues in the former Soviet Union, Russian military reform, Russian foreign policy, and ethnic politics and identity. Dr. Gorenburg is author of Nationalism for the Masses: Minority Ethnic Mobilization in the Russian Federation (Cambridge University Press, 2003), and has been published in journals such as World Politics and Post-Soviet Affairs. He currently serves as editor of Problems of Post-Communism and was also editor of Russian Politics and Law from 2009 to 2016. Dr. Gorenburg received a B.A. in international relations from Princeton University and a Ph.D. in political science from Harvard University.
 
Takeaways

• The Russo-Ukrainian War has been ongoing for three years, with Russia's goals evolving over time.
• Both Russia and Ukraine continue to engage in offensives, but significant territorial gains have become increasingly difficult.
• The war has had a significant impact on the demographics of the fighting forces, particularly in rural and poorer areas.
• Electronic warfare plays a crucial role in the conflict, with both sides adapting and evolving their tactics.
• Russia's defense industry faces challenges in terms of production and sourcing components, but they have found alternative ways to maintain supplies.
• The Russian economy has shifted to a war economy, with a focus on defense spending and investment.
• The labor shortage in Russia poses a challenge for the long-term sustainability of their defense industry and economy. China's relationship with Russia is driven by a significant coincidence of interests, particularly in weakening the United States and its alliance with Europe.
• The war in Ukraine is likely to continue for the foreseeable future, with both sides believing they are inching closer to victory.
• The resolution of the conflict will require negotiation and potential concessions from both sides, but the outcome is uncertain.
• The relationship between Russia and the West is unlikely to return to the pre-war era, and a new normal will have to be established.
• The role of China in supporting Russia and the impact of Western assistance on Ukraine are critical factors to watch in the coming months.

Chapters00:00 - The Evolving Goals of the Russo-Ukrainian War
07:50 - Winter Offensives and Stalemate
11:46 - Long-Range Strikes and Demoralization
17:14 - Demographics and Impact on Rural Areas
20:03 - The Role of Electronic Warfare
24:58 - Challenges in Russia's Defense Industry
29:49 - The Shift to a War Economy
31:25 - Labor Shortage and Inflation
32:54 - The Russia-China Partnership
37:32 - The Existential Threat to Russia
44:50- - Russian Sabotages and Assassination Efforts
48:02 - The Battle in Central Europe and Western Europe
52:18 - The Stalemate in Ukraine and Potential Solutions
56:30 - The Role of China and Western Assistance
01:00:08 - Key Factors to Watch