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On Investing

Our First Podcast Anniversary: Lessons From the Past Year

Nov 1, 2024
Celebrating a year of insightful discussions, the hosts reflect on significant market shifts, including the wild swings in interest rates and the changing equity landscape. They highlight the contrasting performances of mega-cap tech and interest-sensitive stocks. The conversation also dives into inflation expectations and the upcoming economic indicators impacting market sentiment. With a blend of nostalgia and foresight, they thank their audience and share personal podcast preferences, rounding off with valuable recommendations.
29:57

Podcast summary created with Snipd AI

Quick takeaways

  • The past year's market volatility showcased dramatic fluctuations in interest rates, particularly with two-year and 10-year yields rising above four percent.
  • Corporate earnings have remained strong, with larger companies outperforming smaller firms, reflecting a disparity that has upheld overall market health.

Deep dives

Market Volatility Over the Past Year

The past year in fixed income investments has been characterized by significant market volatility, likened to a roller coaster. Twelve months ago, the Fed funds rate was at a peak of five and a half percent, with expectations for rate cuts lingering amid uncertainty. Two-year and 10-year yields experienced considerable fluctuations, initially dropping sharply before making a comeback to levels above four percent. Meanwhile, break-even rates, representing inflation expectations derived from Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS), showed little volatility, remaining consistently around two and a quarter percent, reflecting a stable outlook on inflation despite broader market turmoil.

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