

#289 Michael Howell: Time To Start Thinking About The End Game As Liquidity Cycle Nears Top
52 snips Sep 23, 2025
Michael Howell, CEO of CrossBorder Capital and author of Capital Wars, dives into global liquidity cycles and market risks. He discusses the current late stage of a bull run, revealing looming dangers like a massive debt refinancing wall from COVID-era borrowing. Howell projects gold prices soaring to $10,000 by the late 2030s and $25,000 by 2052, influenced by U.S. monetary inflation and China's debt crisis. He advocates for gold and Bitcoin as hedges against currency weakening, offering crucial insights for investors.
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Late-Stage Global Liquidity Cycle
- The global liquidity cycle is a 5–6 year pattern that began a bull run in late 2022 and is nearing its peak.
- Michael Howell warns investors to start thinking about the end game as liquidity may soon reverse.
Collateral Dominates Lending
- Modern finance is highly integrated: about 80% of lending is collateral-backed, often with government bonds as collateral.
- Dislocations between debt and liquidity — shown in repo and SOFR spreads — can trigger cascading market crises.
Watch MOVE And SOFR For Early Warnings
- Monitor MOVE (bond volatility) and SOFR spreads as early warning indicators of liquidity stress.
- Act when repo tensions and widening SOFR spreads show liquidity beginning to contract.