Doubt can be a dangerous force, especially when it comes to statistics. Misusing data, like the stork-birth correlation tale, serves as a cautionary example of why critical thinking is essential. The importance of embracing statistics is emphasized as a tool for understanding our world better. Listeners are encouraged to foster curiosity about data, rather than skepticism, to avoid harmful consequences. Plus, there's a sneak peek into the author's new book, which delves deeper into these vital themes.
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Storks and Babies
Daryl Huff uses the example of storks and babies to illustrate a spurious correlation.
More storks' nests on larger houses correlate with bigger families, not stork-delivered babies.
insights INSIGHT
Statistics and Deception
Statistics can be manipulated to seemingly prove anything, even falsehoods, as highlighted by Daryl Huff's book.
He encourages skepticism towards statistical claims as a form of self-defense against manipulation.
question_answer ANECDOTE
Smoking and Statistics
Doll and Hill used statistics to demonstrate the link between smoking and lung cancer.
This contrasts with Huff's cynical view, showing statistics as a valuable tool.
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Roderick Thorp's "The Detective" is a crime novel centered around Joe Leland, a seasoned detective investigating a murder case involving a severed penis. The story delves into the dark underbelly of crime, exploring themes of corruption, violence, and the psychological toll on law enforcement officers. Thorp's experience as a private investigator and crime reporter adds a layer of realism to the narrative. The novel's gritty realism and complex characters make it a compelling read for fans of crime fiction. The book's unique plot and characters have inspired various adaptations, including the film "Die Hard".
How to Make the World Add Up
Ten Rules for Thinking Differently About Numbers
Tim Harford
In 'How to Make the World Add Up', Tim Harford provides a comprehensive guide to navigating the world of statistics and data. The book outlines ten simple rules for understanding numbers, along with a golden rule to 'stay curious'. Harford draws on a wide range of examples, from historical figures like Florence Nightingale and John Maynard Keynes to contemporary issues, to illustrate how statistics can be both misleading and informative. He emphasizes the importance of critical thinking, overcoming biases, and maintaining a healthy skepticism when dealing with data. The book is structured around engaging narratives and historical anecdotes, making it an entertaining and informative read for anyone interested in statistics and data analysis.
How to lie with statistics
IRVING HUFF DARRELL with illustrations by GEIS
Darrell Huff
Irving Geis
Bryan Depuy
In 'How to Lie with Statistics', Darrell Huff provides an engaging introduction to the ways statistics can be manipulated or misinterpreted. The book covers topics such as biased sampling, misleading averages, and the manipulation of graphs. It serves as a practical guide for readers to critically evaluate statistical information.
It's easy to mock statistics or cast doubt on them... but we do so at our peril. Undermining our trust in facts and figures can cause great harm, and even death. We should guard against it.
Tim Harford looks at how the seeds of doubt are planted in this mini-episode of Cautionary Tales to celebrate the release of his latest book.
“How To Make The World Add Up” is out now in much of the world, while listeners in US/Canada can pre-order it under the title "The Data Detective" - ahead of its release in early 2021.
Cautionary Tales with Tim Harford 
