Animal Spirits Podcast

So Bearish It's Bullish (EP.409)

Apr 23, 2025

The hosts humorously compare today's market fluctuations to those of 1929 and 1932. They discuss the impact of tariffs on small businesses and navigate the challenges of the falling dollar. Retail behavior shows resilience as younger generations continue to buy the dip. Insights on Bitcoin reveal it is decoupling from traditional trends. The light-hearted exchange also touches on the unpredictable nature of the economy, all while weaving in personal anecdotes that add a relatable touch to the market's complexities.

01:02:53

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Episode notes

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Quick takeaways

Historical comparisons to 1929 and 1932 highlight the need for long-term investment strategies amid short-term market turmoil.

Current tariff policies pose significant risks to small businesses, indicating a looming recession if conditions do not improve.

Despite declining consumer confidence, spending remains resilient as job security significantly influences consumer behavior and purchasing decisions.

Deep dives

Increased Screen Time and Economic Predictions

Elevated screen time has become a talking point, with the tendency for individuals to spend excessive hours online given the state of the market. The podcast emphasizes that tuning out daily noise is nearly impossible and that it’s crucial to recognize the distinction between short-term turmoil and long-term investment strategies. The hosts note that corrections in the market tend to be loud, while recoveries are often quieter, underscoring the need for investors to maintain a long-term perspective despite volatility. Historical data indicates that remaining invested during turbulent times has historically yielded favorable results.

Intro

2min

Balancing Economics with Personal Anecdotes

11min

Navigating Market Challenges and Consumer Behavior

14min

Navigating a Volatile Market Landscape

18min

Navigating Aging and Investment Landscapes

6min

Streaming Landscape and Film Quality

7min

Movies, Memories, and Mortality

3min

Exploring Action Heroes and Market Realities

3min

On episode 409 of Animal Spirits, Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson discuss: some 1929 and 1932 comparisons, the impact of tariffs on small businesses, supply chain problems are coming, putting the dollar's move into perspective, jumping into a recession, why a recession might feel worse than it actually is, the correction is still relatively mild, retail keeps buying the dip, Bitcoin is decoupling, $145,000 mud rooms and much more!

This episode is sponsored by YCharts. Grab a copy of their new deck: https://go.ycharts.com

Find complete show notes on our blogs:

Ben Carlson’s A Wealth of Common Sense

Michael Batnick’s The Irrelevant Investor

Feel free to shoot us an email at animalspirits@thecompoundnews.com with any feedback, questions, recommendations, or ideas for future topics of conversation.

Investing involves the risk of loss. This podcast is for informational purposes only and should not be or regarded as personalized investment advice or relied upon for investment decisions. Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson are employees of Ritholtz Wealth Management and may maintain positions in the securities discussed in this video. All opinions expressed by them are solely their own opinion and do not reflect the opinion of Ritholtz Wealth Management.

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