The Sunday Podcast: Isaac and Ari interview Scott Keeter from Pew Research Center
Sep 15, 2024
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Scott Keeter, a senior survey advisor at Pew Research Center, joins Isaac and Ari for an insightful chat. They delve into evolving polling methodologies and the challenges of ensuring accurate public opinion samples. Scott highlights the importance of integrity in polling and discusses notable errors in recent electoral predictions. The conversation also touches on political dynamics from 2008 to 2020, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on voting laws, and reflections on the 2024 elections, providing a comprehensive look at the current political landscape.
Scott Keeter emphasizes the significant evolution of polling methodologies, moving from traditional methods to modern online practices for better representativeness.
The discussion highlights the complexities of ensuring sample representativeness in surveys, especially considering biases and the impact of demographic shifts over time.
Keeter differentiates between polling and forecasting, advocating for a focus on understanding public opinion trends rather than predicting electoral outcomes directly.
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Interview with Polling Expert Scott Keeter
Scott Keeter from Pew Research Center discusses the evolution of polling methodologies and emphasizes the importance of understanding how polls work. He highlights the shift from traditional telephone polling methods to modern practices, such as online surveys and panel recruiting via incentives. Keeter explains Pew's rigorous process for ensuring representativeness and addressing demographic biases, which has become more crucial as public engagement in surveys has changed dramatically in recent years. This conversation sheds light on the complexities involved in conducting reliable polling and the significance of statistical weighting to achieve accurate results.
The State of Modern Polling
Keeter elaborates on how the landscape of polling has transformed since the electoral surprises of 2016, where traditional methods faced scrutiny for their accuracy. He notes that many pollsters have turned to opt-in online panels due to the challenges of reaching respondents by phone. While these newer methods are often more cost-effective, they require careful statistical adjustments to maintain accuracy, especially when breaking down results by demographic subgroups. Keeter accentuates the need for polling organizations to adapt continuously to ensure they capture the public's sentiments effectively.
Challenges of Polling Accuracy
Keeter discusses the difficulties both Pew and other polling organizations face regarding sample representativeness and bias correction. He reveals the prevalent issue of over-representation of college-educated and older individuals in survey samples, which necessitates corrective techniques like statistical weighting. This ensures that demographic categories that are typically underrepresented are given appropriate consideration in the final analysis. Furthermore, the phenomenon of bogus respondents can distort polling results, necessitating the use of quality checks and other measures to maintain the integrity of the panels.
Political Forecasting vs. Polling
During the episode, a distinction is made between polling and forecasting, particularly in the context of election predictions. Keeter explains that Pew Research Center has shifted its focus away from making electoral forecasts, opting instead to concentrate on understanding public opinion trends and sentiments. He highlights how attempts to predict voter turnout can be complicated and often result in erroneous conclusions, as seen in past elections. This pragmatic approach emphasizes the importance of presenting reliable polling data without attempting to gauge electoral outcomes directly.
Reflections on Past Elections
The discussion transitions to reflections on recent elections, touching on the implications of polling accuracy and its impact on electoral outcomes. The conversation underscores how the effects of past elections can inform current polling practices and voter behavior. Keeter also hints at the unpredictability of upcoming elections, acknowledging that various national and global factors could influence voter sentiments significantly. This retrospective provides insight into how historical electoral dynamics continue to play a role in shaping the political landscape today.
On today's episode, Isaac and Ari interview Scott Keeter, a senior survey advisor at Pew Research Center. They discuss polling methodologies, accuracy, and the 2024 race. They also continued their rankings of presidential races over the past 26 years. And as always, the Airing of Grievances.
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