John Rogers, founder and co-CEO of Ariel Investments, shares his insights on value investing and security selection. He emphasizes the ongoing relevance of picking undervalued mid- and small-cap stocks. Rogers discusses unique investment opportunities like The Sphere in Vegas and the company behind McDonald's McFlurry machines. He highlights the importance of in-depth research for 'orphan' stocks—those without analyst coverage—and reflects on the changing landscape of investment strategies as market dynamics shift.
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Quick takeaways
John Rogers advocates for a return to traditional security selection, particularly in mid-cap and small-cap stocks overlooked by broader markets.
The podcast underscores the significance of understanding consumer trends in experiential spending, influencing investment decisions in sectors like entertainment and tourism.
Deep dives
The Revival of Stock Picking
The current investment landscape reflects a noticeable shift toward traditional stock picking, moving away from the dominant trends of passive investing and large-cap stocks like the MAG 7. Investors are increasingly exploring mid-cap and small-cap stocks, seeking opportunities in lesser-known companies that may be overlooked by the broader market. This approach mirrors investment philosophies from the past, emphasizing the need to uncover valuable, underappreciated businesses through direct research and engagement with company management. The podcast highlights a desire for a return to fundamentals, where security selection takes precedence over momentum-driven strategies.
Embracing Market Cycles
The discussion emphasizes that market cycles are natural and should be embraced rather than feared. Historical patterns show that periods of growth for specific sectors can be followed by abrupt corrections, leading to opportunities for value investors. The concept of 'orphan stocks'—those that lack analyst coverage or attention—becomes critical during these cycles as they often present significant undervalued opportunities. The conversation reflects confidence that as extremes in market sentiment emerge, smaller, undervalued stocks will become more appealing, showcasing a belief in the cyclical nature of investing.
The Value of Market Inefficiencies
A key insight highlights the existence of market inefficiencies, particularly within the small-cap sector, where thorough research often reveals hidden gems. With fewer analysts covering these stocks, substantial discrepancies in pricing can occur, making diligent research vital for uncovering potential value. The hosts discuss strategies employed by investment teams, including rigorous screening for undervalued securities and leveraging insights from respected value managers. This deep dive into lesser-known companies contrasts sharply with the performance of popular large-cap stocks, suggesting that diligent effort can yield lucrative investment opportunities.
Navigating Consumer Trends and Experience
The podcast also explores how consumer trends, particularly the shift toward experiential spending, impact investment decisions in sectors like entertainment and tourism. Companies such as Royal Caribbean and Madison Square Garden are highlighted as benefitting from affluent consumers willing to spend on experiences, indicating resilience amidst broader economic challenges. Investments in businesses that deliver unique experiences are positioned as a counter to potential economic downturns affecting lower-income consumers. The conversation reinforces the belief that understanding consumer behavior and preferences is crucial for making informed investment choices.
These days if you talk to people about the stock market, they might talk to you about the effect of the Fed. Or they'll talk about the Mag 7 and AI capex spend. Or they'll extoll the virtues of passive, low-cost investing. It seems like you hear less and less about the art of security selection: Finding cheap diamonds in the rough that have been overlooked by other investors. But some people are still keeping that world alive. John Rogers is the founder and co-CEO of Ariel Investments, and in his primary mutual fund he invests only in mid- and small-cap companies. Recorded live on stage at the Future Proof Festival in Huntington Beach, CA, we talk about his approach. He explains why he believes value investing still works, and the process he uses to select individual names. We also discuss what he looks for and how he researches stock picks. Among other things, he tells us why he's invested in The Sphere (yes, that Sphere in Vegas) as well as the company that makes the McFlurry machines for McDonald's.