Uncovering Hidden Risks in Investment Portfolios

In Episode #353, Professor Raphael Douady and Ron Rimkus, CFA, discuss the evolution of risk management practices and where we are today. Douady believes even with the “quantitative-ization” of risk management and increased sophistication in data analysis, investors need to strive to uncover the invisible or hidden risks of their investment portfolios. Risk management strategies that only focus on the visible risks could exacerbate the invisible risks inadvertently. Douady also explains that the evaluation of risk is not just about fat tails, it is also about where the risks are coming from. Douady’s “Dominant Factor Analysis” is one method that helps investors determine dominant factors and the possible sources of risks in the portfolio as a window to portfolio sensitivities under different market conditions. Finally, Douady warns that investors cannot seriously avoid economic cycles and notes it is better for investors to be prepared for a “Minsky Moment” rather than trying to predict it.